Jim Johnson and I broke down our thoughts on how the Big Ten East shapes up on our weekly Sports Tonight podcast. Here’s my written summary, with teams listed in order of my predicted finish.


One of college football’s toughest divisions since it’s 2014 inception, the Big Ten East enters 2022 with a first-time defending champion. The Michigan Wolverines finally broke through, defeating rival and division power Ohio State for the first time since 2011, winning their first Big Ten title since 2004, and making their first ever College Football Playoff appearance. Other teams made strides too, with Michigan State posting an 11-win season after going just 2-5 in 2020 and Maryland registering its first winning season since 2014. Others had their struggles; notably Penn State finishing the season 2-6 after jumping to a 5-0 start, Indiana falling hard to 2-10 after finishing the previous season ranked #11. Rutgers showed incremental improvement, but still has the longest path to be competitive. Meanwhile, Ohio State still looms as the unquestioned team to beat, despite surrendering the throne to its rival up North.

Ohio State – It is unlikely that any team in the country can match Ohio State’s QB/WR/RB combo of CJ Stroud, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and TreVeyon Henderson. USC’s trio of Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison and Travis Dye may be the only one that comes close. Despite the loss of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, the WR corps remains deep with Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egubka, the top WR recruits in the 2021 and 2020 classes, respectively. While the rushing numbers from 2021 looked solid, there were key moments where it bogged down; most notably posting just 2.1 yards per rush against Michigan. That part of the offense must be more consistent. The offensive line returns three starters to a unit that was mostly good in pass protection, but again, must improve on run-blocking.

How far the Buckeyes go in 2022 is much more likely to come down to their defense. The unit was the Buckeyes’ Achilles heel in 2021. Nowhere was it more apparent than in their defensive front. In a 35-28 Week 2 loss to Oregon, they gave up 269 yards, 7.1 per-carry, on the ground. Subsequent weeks showed improvement in the numbers, thanks largely to weaker competition and the need for opponents to throw more to keep up with their offense. But when it mattered most, with a Playoff berth and division title at stake, Michigan flattened them to the tune of 297 yards rushing at 7.2 yards per carry. It wasn’t just stopping the run. According to PFF, they pressured opposing QBs on just 30.1% of drop-backs. That ranked 44th in the country; not terrible, but not good for a program used to seeing the likes of the Bosa brothers and Chase Young terrorize QBs.

So how does the defense get better? They started on the right foot by bringing in DC Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State, the architect of 2021’s #10 defense in the nation. Coming from the pass-happy Big 12, Knowles knows how to get pressure on QBs. The Cowboys led the country last season with 55 sacks. Knowles might be able to scheme better run-stopping too, but the biggest improvement needs to come from the personnel on the field. The outlook for that does look promising, with two of the top three DL recruits in the country from 2021, JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, entering their second season. Ohio State is set up for meaningful improvement on the defensive side. Anything less will be a disappointment, and the only thing that could stand in the way of their return to the Playoff.

Michigan State – With a big boost from the transfer portal, second-year Spartans coach Mel Tucker engineered a major turnaround from his 2-5 2020 debut. Finishing 11-2, including a win in a New Year’s Six bowl, was enough to earn Tucker a 10-year/$95 Million extension (they actually agreed to terms just before the end of the regular season). At the time the deal was signed, it made Tucker the second-highest paid coach in college football behind Nick Saban. This was a big move from Michigan State, and to outsiders a curious one for a coach with a limited track record (in three seasons as a head coach Tucker is 18-14). Inside MSU it was viewed as a no-brainer. They are intent on making bigger investments in their football program, and they believe the early returns indicate Tucker is the guy, so they wanted to make that investment in him before someone else came along and did it (see: Nick Saban leaving for LSU in 1999).

So new contract in-hand, what will Tucker and the Spartans do for an encore? For starters, they must figure out how to replace All-American RB Kenneth Walker III plus 3 of the 5 starting offensive lineman who paved the way for him. A good start is by relying on returning QB Payton Thorne. Despite the presence of Walker, Thorne set a school record for TD passes in 2021 with 27. He’ll need to step up even more now that he’s likely to be the focal point of the offense. He does have a strong group of receivers, include his top target from last year, Jayden Reed (59 rec, 1,026 yds, 10 TDs). The cupboard wouldn’t be bare at RB either, with transfers Jarek Broussard (Colorado) and Jalen Berger (Wisconsin) likely very capable. The bigger question is the offensive line. Not only did they lose 3 starters, but they also lost two other rotational pieces. That will leave them with no experienced depth, a precarious position.

Defensively the Spartans return a solid and experienced defensive line that was very good against the run, though could stand improvement in pressuring the QB. Their impressive sack totals belie the fact that they saw more pass attempts than any team in the nation and that their overall QB pressure rate was middling (49th). The hope is Florida transfer DE Khris Bogle, a one-time Top 75 recruit, can help make a difference. The reason they saw so many pass attempts last season is that opponents knew the secondary could be exploited, and it was, to the tune of surrendering the most passing yards per game and allowing 65.6% of attempts to be completed. To that end they brought in CB Ameer Speed from Georgia, who started 3 games for one of the best defenses of this century. 2nd year SEC transfers Ronald Williams (CB, Alabama) and Chester Kimbrough (nickel, Florida) will be expected to improve. Perhaps the best player in the secondary, S Xavier Henderson, returns for a 5th season after contemplating the NFL, so that helps.

Michigan – It wouldn’t be an offseason if Jim Harbaugh didn’t grab the headlines somehow. Just over a year ago he agreed to a reduced guaranteed salary in his contract, replacing the money lost with incentives, amidst concerns he was never going to be more than an 8-9 win coach and might soon be shown his way out the door. This past offseason it looked more like he would let himself out the door. Harbaugh flirted with the Minnesota Vikings over their head coaching vacancy, flew to Minneapolis expecting that the job was his and would not be returning to Ann Arbor, only to head back when it turned out the Vikings’ owner was more interested in another candidate. But instead of returning with his tail tucked between his legs, Michigan rewarded their Prodigal Son with a new, more lucrative, contract extension. That’s the kind of leash a win over Ohio State (finally), a Big Ten championship and CFP appearance will earn you. That’s not to say there weren’t repercussions for Harbaugh’s dalliance. He lost both coordinators; DC Mike Macdonald returning to the Baltimore Ravens to work for Jim’s brother, and Broyles Award-winning OC Josh Gattis taking his talents to South Beach to coordinate Miami’s offense. More importantly, one has to wonder how going from almost fired to almost bolting for the NFL in the course of a year will impact how recruits view Michigan with Harbaugh at the helm.

As for what happens on the field this season, the Wolverines should be set to have a shot at maintaining the benchmark they set in 2021, but will have to make some important replacements. The offense doesn’t need much more, as many key contributors are back. QB Cade McNamara could stand to be more efficient, though he will probably be pushed by 2nd-year man JJ McCarthy, who saw spot-duty last season and is a much more dynamic threat than McNamara. However, McCarthy missed all of spring practice with a sore shoulder, so expect McNamara to be the starter Week 1. Whoever the QB is, he will have a very talented and deep corps or receivers to target. They lost leading rusher Hassan Haskins, but return a lethal duo in Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum. As the latter two have different running styles than Haskins, the scheme might be altered some; but as they usually tend to be, the Wolverines should still be a run-first team. Three-fifths of a great offensive line return, and they have two experienced players competing to step in at RT, while Virginia transfer Olu Oluwatimi should plug right into the C spot.

While the defense returns some numbers, they did lose 7 starters and a lot of star power; mostly in the form of DEs Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, and S Daxton Hill, who were all among the Top 43 picks in the NFL Draft. Losing Macdonald might not create too bumpy a transition, as his replacement is Jesse Minter, who worked alongside Macdonald with the Ravens before going to coordinate the defense at Vanderbilt for one season. Expect the schemes to remain very similar. With the departures of Hutchinson and Ojabo, it’s unclear exactly where the edge rush will come from. It may be that the linebackers will pick up some of the slack, as that appears to be the most experienced and talented unit on the defense right now. The secondary has three starters to replace, though there is experienced depth there. Creating more turnovers via interceptions would help, and has been a stated goal among the defensive coaches.

Penn State – These must be anxious times for the Happy Valley faithful, who have watched their Nittany Lions go just 11-11 the past two seasons. Even before then, they seemed to have a knack of falling short in the uber-tough Big Ten East. That’s especially true against Ohio State, who they have not defeated since 2016, despite having come very close on several occasions. But while close has an expiration date amongst the fanbase, it was good enough for the administration to award James Franklin with a new 10-year, $85 million extension. Franklin seized on this opportunity to press for investments elsewhere in the football program (the weight room is getting an expansion and facelift) as well as a veiled plea to the fanbase do more in the Name, Image, Likeness realm to help recruit and retain talent. Franklin also, more quietly, pushed for an increase to the pool for assistant coaches, which has been somewhat of a revolving door in recent years.

QB Sean Clifford is back for a 6th season with the program, and for the very first time he returns to find the same Offensive Coordinator in Mike Yurcich. Yucich’s first season on the job in 2021 wasn’t pretty, as their offense was 90th in the country in scoring (25 ppg), 96th in yards per play (5.3) and 117th in yards per rush (3.2). It’s that last number that sticks out and highlights a weakness up front. The offensive line wasn’t any better in pass protection, as Clifford was either sacked, hit or hurried on 33% of his dropbacks last season, 78th in the country. The line will have to replace three starters, but that might be a good thing. Clifford is a solid, and obviously experienced QB. While he loses his favorite target from last season, WR Jahan Dotson, the Lions still return 61% of their receiving yardage. 5-star RB Nick Singleton, the Gatorade national player of the year, could make an immediate impact that gives a shot in the arm to the running game. Still, it all comes down to the offensive line.

It’s probably safe to assume Penn State would have been even worse than 7-6 last season were it not for their defense. While they surrendered yards, they were extremely tough in the red zone (#3 in the country in red-zone TD rate). They will have to make an overhaul in personnel to repeat that success in 2022. Six departees from that defense are now on NFL rosters, and former coordinator Brent Pry is now the head coach at Virginia Tech. Pry’s replacement is former Miami head coach Manny Diaz. Diaz still has some talent to work with, bolstered by injury returnees DT PJ Mustipher and DE Adisa Isaac and transfer DE Demeioun Robinson (Maryland) up front, and an experienced secondary featuring CB Joey Porter, Jr. and S Ji’Ayir Brown (who tied for the FBS lead in interceptions last year). Linebacker is the unit that suffered the greatest losses, where they will feature two new starters yet to be determined. While they might not be quite up to the standards of 2021’s defense, they should still be very good, and would be greatly helped by an offense that can run the ball and score more.

Maryland – The Terrapins rode a strong passing attack last year to their first bowl game since 2016 and their first winning season since 2014. Inching above .500 in his third season earned head coach Mike Locksley a new 5-year contract that gives him a raise and keeps him at his home state school through 2026. Locksley returns a relatively experienced team, especially on offense which features one of the best QB + skill position talent combinations in the conference. As is typically the case, the shortcomings for Maryland are on the defensive side, a group that has ranked in the Top 50 in defensive efficiency just once since 2010. Some notable defections on that side of the ball, along with a first-time coordinator, only add to the question marks of whether or not they can improve. Another area with room for improvement is to simply stop beating themselves; they had a -6 turnover margin last year (103rd in FBS) and averaged 57 penalty yards per game (81st).

Taulia Tagovailoa is back for his third season as the Terps starting QB. He already owns several school records and is inarguably the best they have had at the position in a couple decades. Unlike many of his recent predecessors Tagovailoa has also stayed healthy, starting 17 of 18 games since 2020, his only miss due to COVID. Tagovailoa also has perhaps the deepest pool of talented receivers in the conference to target, led by Rakim Jarrett and Dontay Demus, who postponed his NFL ambitions after a gruesome knee injury in the 5th game last season. The offensive line returns all five starters and did a very effective job of protecting Tagovailoa (Top 30 in sacks allowed rate), though there may be some juggling of spots from last season. The unit needs to do a better job of clearing holes for the running game. That was a struggle last season (a pedestrian 4.0 yards per rush and 136 yards per game), and improvement could help Tagovailoa overcome issues with consistency in a more balanced offense.

Outgoing transfers, early departures to the NFL, and a strange sequence regarding the coordinator job don’t inspire much confidence that the defense can make significant leaps this season. After dismissing last season’s DC, Brian Stewart, Locksley appeared to have hit a home run in replacing him with Kevin Steele, long one of the SEC’s most respected defensive architects. That lasted for all of three days, as Steele quickly pivoted to Miami to work under Mario Cristobal. With apparently little options left, Locksley promoted Brian Williams from DL coach. While having never coordinated a defense before, Williams did take over defensive play-calling in the Terps’ final two games last year against Rutgers and Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl. They also lost 4 of their top recruits from the 2021 class, all of them in the DL/LB corps. They have good depth among the cornerbacks, but are thin at the safety positions. On the plus side they do have three key players returning who missed most of last season in Durrell Nchami, one of the Big Ten’s top edge-rushers, starting CB Deonte Banks and LB Fa’Najae Gotay.

Indiana – It was a hard crash for Tom Allen’s team last year. After posting a 14-5 regular season record in 2019-20, and entering 2021 ranked 17th in the preseason, they dropped like a rock to 2-10. Injuries played a major role in the fall. 20 players suffered season-ending injuries, and 10 others were lost for at least five games. And it’s not like there was a lot of quality depth available for a program that clearly had punched above its weight class the previous seasons. While it would be easy to say a simple return to health would fix the problem, Allen took a far more active approach that resulted in significant turnover. The Hoosiers had 30 juniors and seniors depart, brought in 13 additions off the transfer portal, and have 5 new assistants, 2 new coordinators, and a new defensive play-caller: Allen himself.

One of the departed was QB Michael Penix, who after throwing for 24 TDs against 8 INTs in 2019-20 struggled during a 2-2 start (4 TDs, 7 INTs), suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, and transferred to Washington. In is former Missouri QB Connor Bazelak, who threw for over 5,000 yards (66% comp) and 23 TDs in Columbia. He will compete with holdovers Donaven McCulley and Grant Gremel, but seems the likely starter. While the running backs struggled as a unit, they still have to replace their top three rushers from 2021. Shaun Shivers (Auburn) and Josh Henderson (UNC) provide experience. More new faces will have to replace top receivers in WR Ty Fryfogle and TE Peyton Hendershot. One unit that isn’t short on familiar faces is the offensive line, which returns 4/5 starters. New offensive coordinator Walt Bell will have to elan on that group.

Allen has always had an attacking, blitzing style of defense, but had to play it conservative in 2021 as a banged-up secondary forced a lot of inexperienced players into action he didn’t want to expose. Under Allen the Hoosiers typically have a 40% blitz rate, but only sent extra rushers on 27% last season. With a return to health, particularly All-American CB Tiawan Mullen, the secondary should be a strength this season. They also added some bulk to the defensive front in the form of both transfers and HS recruits that could impact immediately. The defense should be a strength this season with Allen back in the play-calling role.

Rutgers – The second season of the Greg Schiano reboot showed some tangible signs of progress, most notably in the win column. The Knights entered their final game playing for bowl eligibility, and despite the loss played in a bowl anyway as a COVID replacement. Schiano replaced nearly his entire defensive staff over the offseason, but to get where they’d like to be they must improve an offense that was moribund last season (120th in both yards per game and scoring).

QB Noah Vedral returns for a sixth season of college football. He started all 13 games last season after stops at UCF and Nebraska. In a sign of just how subpar the offense was, Vedral is also the leading returning rusher with 297 yards in 2021. While he figures to be the starter again, he will likely be pushed by redshirt freedman Gavin Wimsatt, a 4-star recruit out of high school who saw limited action last year. The offensive line got a badly-needed overhaul during the offseason and could see as many as four new starters. Rutgers rushers averaged just 1.3 yards before contact, 124th in FBS and the sign of a poor OL. Improvement will be necessary for a RB unit that, again, returns very little in the way of production (take out Vedral and they return less than 40% of last year’s yardage). Despite the loss of leading receiver Bo Melton to the NFL, Rutgers should have some talent in that room thanks to portal additions Taj Harris (Syracuse) and Sean Ryan (West Virginia). Seniors Shameen Jones and Aaron Cruickshank make it a deep unit.

Defensively Joe Harasymiak, a Jersey guy, comes from Minnesota as the new coordinator. He’ll have to get through his first season without DE Mohamed Toure, the 2021 sack leader, who suffered an injury in spring practice and won’t play. There is some talent and experience up front, but it is not yet apparent where the production will come from to replace Toure. The linebacker unit also must replace four experienced players and will have little choice but to embrace a youth movement. Losing their top-ranked 2022 recruit for the season, 4-star LB Moses Walker, also due to injury, doesn’t help; though another 2022 4-star, Anthony Johnson, should. The secondary, led by S Avery Young and CBs Kessawn Abraham and Max Melton, is by far the strongest and most experienced unit on the defense. They will be relied on heavily to help the front seven.

Mike Lowe
Mike Lowe

College Football Analyst

Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.

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