After the greatest pair of semifinal games in CFP history, our title game is set. It will feature the overwhelming favorite for much of the season against arguably the biggest underdog of the playoff era.
#1 Georgia vs #3 TCU – Jan 9, 2023 | 7:30pm ET | SoFi Stadium – Inglewood,CA | ESPN
Line: Georgia -12.5 | Money Line: Georgia -450, TCU +350 | O/U: 62.5
It seems a lot to ask for this game to live up to the level set by the two semifinal games. That Georgia is a 12.5-point favorite is a reflection of those modest expectations. It’s understandable too. Georgia is viewed as a similar team to Michigan, TCU’s semifinal opponent, in terms of style; except the Bulldogs are bigger, faster, better, and (we assume) won’t make the sort of crucial errors the Wolverines did in the Fiesta Bowl. So the question many are asking is, can TCU at least make a close game of it, if not win? So with that, most of my focus in this piece will be on TCU and what they must do to have a chance.
Georgia was only seriously threatened twice this season. The first came on a Week 5 trip to Missouri when they trailed by three with less than 5 minutes remaining before a TD put them ahead to stay. That was dismissed as a team that simply took an inferior opponent too lightly. The other was the semifinal against Ohio State, who many viewed as the closest team (save perhaps Alabama) to Georgia in terms of overall talent.
We can rule out a Missouri repeat. The Horned Frogs have rightly gained the attention and respect of the entire college football world. You don’t quietly sneak into the national championship game. Motivation and lack of respect for their opponent is not going to be an issue for the Bulldogs. That means TCU will have to do what Ohio State did, and go toe-to-toe with the best team in the country. How? Let’s look at how the Buckeyes did it.
First and foremost, the Buckeyes played nearly mistake-free football in the Peach Bowl. They did not turn the ball over and had just 4 penalties for 24 yards. By contrast, the Frogs had 3 turnovers and 7 penalties for 85 yards against Michigan. They won’t be able to overcome that this time around.
Offensively, Ohio State was effective in attacking Georgia’s defense in the spot where they are softest; the secondary. QB CJ Stroud averaged just over 10 yards per pass attempt and threw four touchdowns. Stroud is the sort of passer who, combined with an elite cadre of receivers, can expose as well as anyone in college football. Still, most agree that the biggest turning point in the game was when Buckeye receiver Marvin Harrison Jr left the game with an apparent head injury near the end of the 3rd quarter and did not return. From that moment on, Georgia outscored Ohio State 17-6. The Buckeyes also played the entire second half without TE Cade Stover. One thing the Buckeyes did not do well was run the ball. That’s not a huge surprise, as they were banged up at that position and Georgia is elite at stopping the run anyway. Probably the most impactful running plays involved Stroud on improvised scrambles late in the game with his receiving corps depleted.
TCU is unlikely to successfully copy the same formula. They do have the closest thing in college football to Harrison Jr in WR Quentin Johnson, but for all his strengths QB Max Duggan is not the sort of QB who is simply going to be able to pick apart Georgia’s secondary all game. The accuracy and ability to go through progressions as quickly as Stroud just aren’t quite there. The Frogs must find a way to run the ball effectively. They did manage to rush for 263 yards (6.4 per carry) against Michigan, and the Wolverines only allowed .26 yards more per carry all season than Georgia did. That’s encouraging, because the Frogs’ passing game is predicated off their running game. One important factor is the status of RB Kendre Miller. He left the Fiesta Bowl in the first half with a lower-body injury and did not return. His backup, Emari Demercado, played very well in his absence, but asking Demercado to carry the load for the running backs for 60 minutes is a big ask. Getting Miller back, and healthy enough to be effective, would be big.
One thing that Ohio State did against Georgia that I did not mention yet was they used tempo, something the Buckeyes did not typically do during the regular season. It seemed to have an effect on Georgia’s defense when they were able to get first downs, since it prevented the Bulldogs from substituting as liberally as they like. TCU has used tempo as an effective tactic all season, so it’s in their comfort zone. One other thing is that Ohio State seemed to take a page out of the playbook that LSU used against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. While the Tigers weren’t able to make it a close game (thanks to a special teams meltdown and a poor 2nd quarter), they did put up 549 yards on the Dawgs’ defense, 502 of them via the air. If Ohio State learned from that, you can bet Frogs’ OC Garrett Riley, who is known as someone who will adapt his offense to attack your weaknesses, will do the same.
So with all that said, here are my keys for TCU’s offense:
– Lean on your big offensive line run the ball effectively, even if not the 200+ YPG you usually average
– When in obvious passing situations, go with 7-man protections and don’t leave a guard or center 1-on-1 with DT Jalen Carter
– Get Quentin Johnson as many 1-on-1 matchups as possible, and get him the ball, especially on the outside against Georgia’s CB’s
– Go with a fast pace when you are able to get a first down, limit Georgia’s opportunities to substitute linemen
On the other side of the ball, TCU’s defense was probably the weakest leak among all offenses and defenses in the semifinals. And yet, the Frogs’ defense had an indelible impact on their win in the Fiesta Bowl. Some of that was in the form of gifts from Michigan – an ill-advised trick play on 4th-and-goal from TCU’s 2-yard line on the game’s first possession, and an apparent TD reception that was reversed by replay, only to see Michigan fumble on the half-yard line on the very next play.
On the other hand, the Frogs’ alert and aggressive defense provided them with 14 points via two pick-sixes. More importantly, while their defense did give up 39 points in the second half, they didn’t seem to wear down. They were fast and physical from wire-to-wire. The increased points in the second half were mostly a case of Michigan finally executing better.
Another positive statistic for TCU is that excluding Donovan Edwards’s 54-yard run on the game’s first offensive snap, the Frogs held Michigan to 132 yards rushing on the day – over 100 yards below the Wolverines’ per-game average on the season. The notion that Michigan could simply impose their will physically upon TCU did not come to pass. Georgia might be even bigger and more physical offensively than Michigan, so they are likely to want to impose their will on TCU just as Michigan hoped. One benefit the Frogs may have is that no one in the SEC runs a 3-3-5 defense like they do, with defenders attacking from angles you seldom see. On running plays this has often resulted in blockers who find they have no one to block, while a free defender gets a clean shot at the ball-carrier. So Georgia may find they are making adjustments on the fly. Still, the Bulldogs have shown they do their best work in the 4th quarter, so that edge will likely be mitigated when TCU needs it the most.
As for defending the pass, TCU must get pressure on QB Stetson Bennett and force him into a couple crucial mistakes. Against Michigan, the unfamiliarity with their defense again may have helped. Like the SEC, no one in the Big Ten runs a defense like TCU does, so Michigan QB JJ McCarthy may have been a victim of that when he threw his two picks (both of which TCU returned for touchdowns). Georgia’s wide receivers don’t really impress anyone, though Arian Smith did have an impact in his Peach Bowl return from injury. The Dawgs do their damage with the tight ends, namely Brock Bowers. Darnell Washington (6-6, 270 lbs) is a question mark to play after suffering an injury in the Peach Bowl, but his role is more prominent in the running game. The passing game is mostly a complement to the running game for Georgia, so if they are successful running the ball, openings should be there for Bennett & Company to exploit.
My keys for TCU’s defense are pretty simple:
– Slow down Georgia’s running game
– Pressure Stetson Bennett
– Have enough left in the tank for the 4th quarter
My Pick
I think TCU can make a game of it for a while. Their unfamiliar schemes, athleticism and playmaking abilities might put Georgia on its heels early, and maybe have the outcome very much in doubt for three quarters. But I don’t expect Georgia to make the sort of mistakes (both by players and coaches) that Michigan did that likely affected the outcome of that game. The Bulldogs won’t find themselves down by 19 points near the end of the 3rd quarter like the Wolverines did, and just as we saw them do against Alabama in last year’s title game, they’ll own the 4th quarter and win by a margin that might look comfortable on the scoreboard, but belies the challenge they faced.
Georgia -12.5, Georgia -450
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.