College Football 2022 – Championship Week Preview

As we head into Conference Championship Weekend, there’s much to assess in the world of college football. Let’s start at the very top, with the playoff.

While we could quibble with a couple teams’ placement, there really are no big surprises or controversies in the penultimate rankings.

First, what seems clear is the following:

#1 Georgia has a spot in the playoff locked up, regardless of the result of their SEC Championship Game matchup with #15 LSU.

#2 Michigan should have their place locked-in too, regardless of the result of their Big Ten Championship Game matchup with Purdue.

#4 USC needs a win against #11 Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game to secure its spot. If the Trojans lose, #5 Ohio State likely moves up and claims a spot.

That leaves us with one big uncertainty:

#3 TCU might have their spot locked-in, regardless of the result of their Big 12 Championship Game matchup with #10 Kansas State. I believe they should be in no matter the result. But does the committee feel the same? Even if they lose, do the Horned Frogs deserve to be dropped for losing a 13th game against the 10th-ranked team, who they beat a month ago? Keep in mind that the team (or teams, depending on the USC result) that would potentially slot in ahead of them are either Ohio State or Alabama. Do either or both of those two deserve to move ahead of a 12-1 Power 5 team that lost an extra game while they sat at home watching? I don’t think so, but I’m not on the committee (thankfully). Let’s review their resumes:

TCU – Best wins: #10 Kansas State, #20 Texas | Losses: #10 Kansas State (if they lose Sat)

Ohio State – Best wins: #8 Penn State, #21 Notre Dame | Losses: #2 Michigan (at home by 22pts)

Alabama – Best wins: #20 Texas, #24 Mississippi St | Losses: #7 Tennessee (by 3), #15 LSU (by 1)

I believe TCU has the better resume than Alabama. No way should they drop below them with a loss to K State. Ohio State is trickier. The Buckeyes have the better wins. But their loss was ugly, even though it was to the #2 team. Whether TCU would lose a close game to K State or a blowout might make the difference. And the Big 12 doesn’t seem particularly strong this year, so that doesn’t work in TCU’s favor. Of course, if USC loses and drops Ohio State jumping over TCU won’t matter….the Frogs just need to stay ahead of Alabama. I believe they should.

Last weekend was rough for Heisman candidates. Only two players who are seriously in the discussion had good games.

One is Bryce Young. I think it will be very tough for him to repeat. Not only does he have to be viewed as the best player in college this season, but I believe he’ll be measured against what he did last season as well. In both cases, the numbers just aren’t there for him. Of course he did miss a game-and-a-half with a shoulder injury. But I don’t recall Heisman voters ever really taking that into account. His team also was not as successful this season. That is certainly no fault of Young’s. You could argue that no player was more valuable to his team this season than Bryce Young, and even argue he was more valuable to the Tide this year than when he won the award last year. But the Heisman isn’t based on who is most valuable, just who is the best.

That brings me to the other hopeful that managed to have a good weekend: Caleb Williams. With his team’s playoff hopes on the line, the USC QB made his biggest statement. The passing numbers don’t jump off the page, but he got it done against a good Notre Dame defense, both on the ground and though the air, and was directly responsible for 4 of his team’s 5 touchdowns on the night. I think the award is his to lose right now. Maybe a rough day for him against Utah would drop him on the ballots, but last time he saw the Utes he was 25/42, 381 yards passing, 5 touchdowns and a 55 yard run.

Hot off the press:

The last remaining hurdle to CFP expansion beginning with the 2024 season has been cleared. The Rose Bowl has agreed to sign off on the 12-team playoff. The RB was trying to get assurances from the CFP that they would be able to host a game in the January 1st (or 2nd when the 1st falls on a Sunday) 2pm PT time slot, which has long been their tradition. In years when they did not host a CFP semifinal, the would host a bowl game between the highest ranked Big Ten and Pac-12 teams to not make the 12-team field. The CFP was not willing to make such assurances, because 1) they don’t have a TV contract after the 2025 season, and 2) when they do negotiate such a contract, the TV networks will certainly be willing to pay more for a CFP game in that coveted slot versus a meaningless bowl game.

So this is what the playoff field would look like, at this moment, if we had the 12-team format in place.

As mentioned above, headed into this weekend only one or two games matter in determining who gets in the 4-team playoff. Let’s look at how that would differ with 12 teams.

• USC and Utah would mean a little less for USC, but a lot more for Utah. The Utes would get an automatic bid as the Pac-12 Champion. USC would likely still be in with a loss, but they would lose their Top 4 seeding and first round bye.
• Same situation with the Big 12 Championship Game. TCU would be playing just for seeding and a bye. Kansas State would be in a do-or-die situation.
• The ACC Championship Game between Clemson and North Carolina is currently meaningless as far as the playoff. That would obviously not be the case in the 12-team format. The winner would be in, the loser goes home (or at least to a meaningless mid-tier bowl).
• The AAC Championship Game, featuring UCF at Tulane, wouldn’t just be about getting to a New Year’s Six bowl, like it is now. It would be for one of the six automatic qualifier bids in the playoff. Big difference.
• While LSU and Purdue are heavy underdogs against Georgia and Michigan in their respective conference title games, if either did pull the upset, they’d both be in.
• Of the teams not playing this weekend, Ohio State, Alabama would be virtual locks to get in while Tennessee and Penn State would have strong odds of getting in, barring several major upsets. Meanwhile, if teams like Kansas State and Utah lose, #12 Washington and #13 Florida State would suddenly be in good shape to move up and claim the last two at-large bids.
• In summary, all five of the Power 5 Championship games, plus the AAC Championship Game, would feature at least one team that needed to win to play its way into the playoff.

Ok, we’ll just have to wait a couple more years to look forward to this. For now, here’s a look at the two games that matter most this weekend.

#4 USC vs #11 Utah (8pm ET – Friday, FOX)

Line: USC -2.5 | Money Line: USC -145, Utah +122 | O/U: 67

We all remember what happened the first time these two met in Salt Lake City. It was probably one of the Top 5 games of the season. The Utes pulled it out 42-43, the difference being a successful 2-point conversion attempt on their final touchdown with less than a minute left. It was obviously not a stellar day for defenses. It was not a stellar day for officiating either. Hopefully that isn’t an issue Friday.

A month and a half later, we get the rematch. While the Trojans have much more on the line, do not underestimate how much the Utes would love to play spoiler and go to another Rose Bowl. The Trojans offense continues to click. QB Caleb WIlliams looks like the leader in the clubhouse for the Heisman. WR Jordan Addison appears fully recovered from an ankle injury suffered in the first matchup. RB Austin Jones has so far filled the shoes of the injured Travis Dye. They will face the Pac-12’s stingiest scoring defense. But again, the Trojans managed to put 42 points on the board against that defense, in a tough venue to play.

On the other side, the Utes have a couple injury issues they’ll have to overcome. Leading rusher Tayvion Thomas is out. Leading receiver, TE Dalton Kincaid, is banged up but expected to play. The Trojans defense is porous. They will have to do the one they actually do well: force turnovers. They only got one in the first matchup, but it was a big one; the Utes fumbled deep in USC territory.

This feels like another tight game, but I like Caleb Williams to find a way to prevail and outscore Utah.

My Pick: USC -2.5, USC -145

#3 TCU vs #10 Kansas State (Noon ET – Saturday, ABC)

Line: TCU -2.5 | Money Line: TCU -140, Kansas State +118 | O/U: 61.5

Another rematch. I still believe the Horned Frogs should be in the Top 4 if they lose, but I can see the committee disagreeing. The first saw the Wildcats jump out to a 28-10 lead shortly before the half, then the Frogs scored 28 unanswered points to win. This was the game KSU QB Adrian Martinez left the game in the 1st Qtr and his backup, Will Howard, came in and engineered all of the Wildcats’ points. Martinez returned a couple weeks later, but again was injured. This is Will Howard’s game.

Howard’s counterpart, TCU’s Max Duggan, is no less a remarkable story. Like Howard, Duggan was not the starter when the season began. But he took over early and has been one of the most efficient passers in the country while leading his team to too many come-from-behind wins to keep count of.

This game likely comes down to how well the Kansas State defense can slow down the Frogs’ lethal air-ground combo attack. KSU’s defense was tops in the Big 12 in fewest points allowed at 19.4 per game, but they allowed double that to TCU last time. It’s tough to beat a team the second time around, but I think the Frogs are destiny’s team of the 2022 season.

My Pick: TCU -2.5, TCU -140

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With the news of playoff expansion to cover, I couldn’t get to the coaching carousel this week. I’ll definitely hit that next week, as we’re sure to have more activity by then anyway. Enjoy Championship Weekend!