College Football 2022 – Playoff Semifinals

It’s all come down to this. Our 2022-23 playoff features one first-time team, two teams from the same conference (and it’s not the SEC), and the first playoff in its 9-year history without either Alabama or Clemson.

Fiesta Bowl: #3 TCU vs #2 Michigan (4pm ET, ESPN)

Line: Michigan -7.5 | Money Line: Michigan -320, TCU +250 | O/U: 58.5

TCU Offense vs Michigan Defense

Key Players: TCU – QB Max Duggan, WR Quentin Johnston | Michigan – DB Mike Sainristil

TCU Offensive Stats:

• 473 Yards per game, #13 (in FBS)
• 6.84 Yards per play, #10
• 40.3 Points per game, #6
• .138 EPA per play, #17

Michigan Defensive Stats:

• 277.1 Yards per game allowed, #3
• 4.45 Yards per play allowed, #3
• 13.38 Points per game allowed, #4 (tie)
• -.192 EPA per play, #3

TCU has made a habit of getting off to slow starts offensively for much of this season. It’s led to some very exciting football, as the Frogs live-on-the-edge style has produced some of 2022’s most frantic finishes. That’s just not going to work in this game, as a come-from-behind miracle, or four quarter slugfest, for that matter, isn’t a winning formula for Michigan. For TCU to pull the upset, it feels like this needs to be a high-scoring affair.

That’s not to say TCU can’t win in the trenches. Their offensive line is by no means small (317 lbs average and no starter shorter than 6-foot-4). They helped the Horned Frogs average 200 yards per game rushing on 5.23 yards per carry, both of which were Top 25 in the country. However Michigan was Top 5 in defense in both categories, so it will not be easy.

If TCU is to win they will also need to exploit the edges with their speed. The Frogs ran plays out of 4-wide receiver formations more than all but 11 teams in the country. Meanwhile, Michigan’s defense only saw such formations on a total of 25 snaps all season, so there may be opportunity there. Getting the ball to Johnston will be key. At an imposing 6-foot-4, 215 lbs, many believe he will be the first wide receiver selected in the next NFL draft.

Ultimately, Max Duggan is the fulcrum of success for TCU in both the running and passing game. He’s been one of the more efficient passers in college football since taking over the starting job in Week 2; but again, he’s gotten off to slow starts in several games. TCU needs the 4th Quarter version of Max Duggan for all 4 quarters in this one.

Michigan Offense vs TCU Defense

Key Players: Michigan – QB JJ McCarthy, RB Donovan Edwards | TCU – LB Dee Winters

Michigan Offensive Stats:

• 453.5 Yards per game, #27
• 6.59 Yards per play, #19
• 40.1 Points per game, #7
• .166 EPA per play, #12

TCU Defensive Stats:

• 385.1 Yards per game allowed, #74
• 5.41 Yards per play allowed, #57
• 25 Points per game allowed, #56
• .003 EPA per play, #51

Is TCU’s defense good enough to slow down the Wolverine offense? They have shown improvement as the season wore on, relying more on man coverages that allowed them to focus more on stopping the run than early in the season, when they played a lot of Cover 2. They do have two very good cover corners in Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton. The safeties absolutely must be cognizant of play-action while they will no doubt be expected to help in run support. Ohio State learned the hard way what JJ McCarthy and the receivers can do to you if you don’t respect the play-action.

The physics definitely favor Michigan up front, as they sport an offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award for the second straight season. TCU plays a very active defense that has been effective at times – they held Texas and Bijan Robinson to just 28 yards rushing. In addition to keeping Michigan off-schedule in the running game, TCU absolutely must be successful on 3rd downs, as Michigan was 10th in the country in converting on 47% of 3rd down, while the Frogs’ defense was just 40th in getting stops.

My Pick

TCU has been underestimated from the get-go. It feels like simply getting here in coach Sonny Dykes’s first season was a major milestone, and they’re playing with house money from here on out. Meanwhile, though many didn’t necessarily expect Michigan to get back to the playoff again, they come in as the hunted. Furthermore, the Wolverines no doubt feel a need to erase the ugly memory of last year’s 34-11 semifinal defeat to Georgia, and prove that they are among the nation’s elite programs. So I expect a loose TCU team that won’t be afraid and definitely won’t panic if they fall behind early (they’re used to it!). However, I think Michigan should be able to wear TCU down and ultimately prevail. I think it’ll be close as to whether or not TCU can cover, but if I have to make a choice, I’d probably go with Michigan against the number.

Michigan -7.5, Michigan -320

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Peach Bowl: #4 Ohio State vs #1 Georgia (8pm ET, ESPN)

Line: Georgia -6.5 | Money Line: Georgia -267, Ohio State +215 | O/U: 62

Ohio State Offense vs Georgia Defense

Key Players: Ohio State – QB CJ Stroud, WR Marvin Harrison Jr | Georgia- DT Jalen Carter

Ohio State Offensive Stats:

• 492.7 Yards per game, #7
• 7.3 Yards per play, #2
• 44.5 Points per game, #2
• .241 EPA per play, #4

Georgia Defensive Stats:

• 292.1 Yards per game allowed, #8
• 4.78 Yards per play allowed, #13
• 12.77 Point per game, #2
• -.177 EPA per play, #6

This is the marquee matchup in this game, and maybe in the entire playoff. The Buckeyes have better playmakers on offense than the Bulldogs have seen this season; better than those on Tennessee and Oregon, two Top 10 offenses that Georgia shut down. Ohio State’s receivers (Harrison Jr and Emeka Egbuka) can win one-on-one battles with anyone in college football, including Georgia’s secondary, which is very good at some positions but not among the nation’s elite as a whole.

The key is giving Stroud enough time, and that means slowing down Jalen Carter, the most notorious game-wrecker in the sport (when he’s on). Carter dealt with an MCL injury in midseason, but was also prone to bouts of apathy. But he almost single-handedly shut down Tennessee’s offense in the biggest game of the regular season for Georgia, and should be motivated to close out his college career with a national championship and the sort of big-game film that could make him the #1 overall draft pick next April.

Ohio State has a very talented pair of bookends up front in future NFL’ers Paris Johnson and Dawand Jones. But it’s the guys on the interior of the line that will be most tested; guards Matthew Jones and Donovan Jackson, and center Luke Wypler. If Carter is on, none of them will be able to shut him down. But Carter averages just over 40 snaps per game, so it’ll be up to Stroud and Company to strike when he’s on the sideline.

It will also be crucial for the Buckeyes to be able to run the ball effectively. They have struggled with injuries to the RB unit, and TreVeyon Henderson will not play, but Miyan Williams is expected to be able to go, and true freshman Dallan Hayden shined when he was pressed into duty.

Georgia Offense vs Ohio State Defense

Key Players: Georgia – QB Stetson Bennett IV, TE Brock Bowers | Ohio State – S Ronnie Hickman

Georgia Offensive Stats: 

• 491.9 Yards per game, #9
• 6.97 Yards per play, #7
• 39.2 Points per game, #10
• .162 EPA per play, #13

Ohio State Defensive Stats:

• 303.9 Yards per game allowed, #12
• 4.88 Yards per play allowed, #17
• 19.25 Points per game allowed, #13
• -.134 EPA per play, #11

While statistically improved from 2021, there are questions as to whether Ohio State’s defense is good enough to win in the playoff. Those questions grew louder when Michigan gashed them for 45 points in Columbus. In Georgia, the Buckeyes will face a similar style of offense as the Wolverines.

The Bulldogs like to grind you with the running game, and then land a big haymaker with play-action passes. Georgia doesn’t have the wide receivers Michigan does, but what the Bulldogs have is two of the best TEs in the game in Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington. As you might expect, the majority (59%) of Georgia’s offensive formations are “12” personnel (1 back, 2 tight ends). Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton are a very effective three-headed monster at RB, all averaging over 5 yards per carry and can draw safeties towards the box.

For this reason, Hickman is my key player for the Buckeyes. He’s been beaten over the top at times this season, and he tends to bite on play-action. Two particular plays against Michigan – a 75-yard TD pass to Cornelius Johnson and a 45-yard TD pass to Colston Loveland – were cases where the middle of the field was wide open. The Bulldog offensive coaches were probably salivating watching that film.

My Pick

You don’t want to read too much into one game, but the last time we saw Ohio State they did not look like a Top 10 team, let alone a team that could compete in the playoff. The defense was terrible and while the offense moved the ball, they didn’t do well enough when they got into Michigan territory, settling for three field goals and an interception. Add in struggling to put away teams like Northwestern (Nov 5) and Maryland (Nov 19), and unless the Buckeyes managed to really plug the holes during the month off, it’s hard to see how they can win against the best team in the country. Honestly, I don’t think the Buckeyes have a good shot to even cover.

Georgia -6.5, Georgia -267