It’s never too early for a Top 25…even though it’s too early to get this anywhere close to accurate. But here goes anyway…

1. Alabama – 2021 was viewed as a “rebuilding” season after the Crimson Tide lost 10 players to the NFL Draft (including a record 6 in the 1st Round). All they did was go out and win the SEC and were runners-up for the national title. This year they lost a more modest 7 players to the draft, and return arguably 2021’s best players in the sport on both sides of the ball in QB Bryce Young and LB Will Anderson. Then Nick Saban topped off the tank with transfer portal studs in CB Eli Ricks and RB Jahmyr Gibbs, among others. Not to mention the #2 high school recruiting class in the country. Sometimes life just isn’t fair.

2. Ohio State – The Buckeyes had some key losses, returning just 13 starters from last season. Three of those starters, QB CJ Stroud, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB TreVeyon Henderson, will ensure that the offense remains Playoff caliber. The greater concern, as it was last season, is on defense. Their defensive EPA of -1.98 per game was only good for #32 in the country, definitely not Playoff caliber. They made a great hire in the offseason when they lured DC Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State, and given the Buckeyes are seemingly always knee-deep in blue chip recruits, perhaps he’ll be the difference-maker that gets them back to the CFP.

3. Georgia – Yes, they won the national championship, but perhaps the greatest testament to how good the Bulldogs were last season is their NFL record 15 players selected in last month’s draft (5 of them, all defensive players, in the 1st Round). Now comes the bigger test…can they reload from all those losses well enough to remain in the Playoff hunt? The transfer portal didn’t offer much help; they lost starting WR Jermain Burton (to Alabama, no less) and backup QB JT Daniels, while making no significant additions. But Top 3 recruiting classes each of the past four years will help. So will QB Stetson Bennett, who no doubt looks forward to another season of proving his doubters wrong.

4. Texas A&M – I won’t say Jimbo Fisher is on the hot seat. He’s not. Not with the 10-year/$95 million contract extension he signed last year. But he has to be feeling some urgency to deliver bigger results. Thrilling victory over then-#1 Alabama notwithstanding, he’s not getting $95 million to go 8-4 like last season. The talent is there; Fisher has signed Top 10 recruiting classes each of the past four years, including what 24-7 says was the best class ever this year (though how many of those guys will contribute this season is a question). First thing Fisher must do is settle on a starting QB; he has last year’s QB1 Haynes King (who missed nearly all the season with a broken leg), LSU transfer Max Johnson, and the #2 QB in the 2022 signing class in Conner Weigman.

5. Clemson – Speaking of coaches feeling some urgency, Dabo Swinney is coming off his first season without a Playoff berth since 2014. It’s tough when you win 10 games and the consensus is you had a down year, but those are the expectations Swinney has built with his success. He’ll have to bounce back without his two coordinators who left for head coaching jobs. Nick Saban deals with that on an annual basis. But this might be uncharted territory for Dabo, who has enjoyed remarkable staff stability, given Clemson’s success, for the past decade. Coaching aside, this season really comes down to whether QB DJ Uiagalelei can overcome a challenging first season as starter and give the Tigers the sort of production they enjoyed during the Deshaun Watson/Trevor Lawrence era. If not, don’t be shocked if he gets a quick hook for prized freshman Cade Klubnik.

6. Oklahoma – One of those ex-Clemson coordinators was DC Brent Venables, who takes over a Sooners program that was stunned by the sudden departure of Lincoln Riley and QB Caleb Williams for USC. Compounding that is the departure of QB Spencer Rattler for South Carolina, who was gone no matter what. They did land Dillon Gabriel off the transfer portal from UCF, and he’ll reunite with his former OC Jeff Lebby, who comes after a one-year stop at Ole Miss. Despite defense being Venables’ specialty, that looks like the much bigger concern for the Sooners, where only 4 starters return. Can a new coaching staff overcome that much roster turnover?

7. Utah – In contrast to Oklahoma, there is plenty of stability among both coaching staff and returning players in Salt Lake City for the reigning Pac-12 champs. The offense in particular, with QB Cam Rising and RB Tavion Thomas back, should be solid. The defense will have several new faces, and last year’s conference Defensive Player of the Year, LB Devin Lloyd, will surely be missed. But Kyle Whittingham has a well-established track record for great defenses, so they should be fine. Perhaps the biggest question the Utes face is how they will handle being the hunted this time around instead of the hunters.

8. Notre Dame – One of the biggest shockers of the offseason occurred when Brian Kelly, who last season passed Knute Rockne as the Irish’s all-time winningest coach, left for LSU. Taking over is 38 year-old Marcus Freeman, who after one season as DC spurned Kelly’s offer to join him in Baton Rouge and was rewarded with the head job. Freeman also managed to retain much of the staff from 2021, so the Irish have some coaching continuity working in their favor. Less certain is whether they have the players to make a serious run at the Playoff. They’ll have to replace their offensive 1-2 punch of QB Jack Coan and RB Kyren Williams. Whoever that ends up being, they should at least have a very good OL in front of them, as ND seemingly always does.

9. Michigan State – The Spartans pulled off a surprise in 2021, going 11-2 that included a thrilling defeat of in-state rival Michigan. That earned Mel Tucker a 10-year/$95 million (fully guaranteed) extension that makes him second only to Nick Saban among college football coaches. That’s pretty remarkable for a guy with only three seasons as a head coach and an all-time record of 18-14, but that’s the world we live in now. Last year’s turnaround (from just 2-5 in 2020) was fueled largely by the transfer portal, and this year will be no different as Tucker loaded up to replace some big losses on offense and bolster a defense that was leaky at times. The biggest addition was former Colorado RB Jarek Broussard, who will be counted on to fill the huge void left by Kenneth Walker III. The offense will at least return QB Payton Thorne, but he’ll have to find a new favorite target after Jalen Nailor left for the NFL.

10. Ole Miss – Speaking of those who love to work the transfer portal, Lane Kiffin proclaimed himself “The Portal King” this winter (though Lincoln Riley might have something to say about that). Kiffin brought in over a dozen transfers to replace the many holes left behind by departures. None of those new additions will likely be more important than former USC QB Jaxson Dart, who has the challenging task of replacing Matt Corral. Dart will be helped by TCU RB transfer Zach Evans, and a familiar target in former Trojan teammate TE Michael Trigg.

11. BYU – Perhaps no team returns more 2021 production than the Cougars, and considering they went 10-3 that’s a good thing. One huge piece of their 2021 success is gone, that being RB Tyler Allgeier. HC Kilani Sitake will count on a pair of Bay Area transfers, former Cal RB Christopher Brooks and former Stanford FB Houston Heimuli, to pick up the load. Likely the biggest key to their season will be keeping QB Jaren Hall healthy. As the Cougars enter their final season as an independent, their schedule does them no favors; games against Arkansas, Baylor, Notre Dame and Oregon will be tough.

12. Oklahoma State – The Cowboys are coming off one of their most successful seasons in program history, having won 12 games and coming just 1-yard short of winning the Big 12 Championship. If Mike Gundy is to get similar results in 2022, he’ll need to replace a lot of his conference-best defense, starting with coordinator Jim Knowles who left for Ohio State. His replacement, Derek Mason, has a respected track record for defense, so they’re at least off to a good start. Replacing 7 starters, including their two leading tacklers and four starters in the secondary from last season, won’t be as easy. Offense looks a little more certain with QB Spencer Sanders back and Brennan Presley as his top receiving option. Presley’s younger brother, Braylin, joins as one of the Cowboys’ top incoming freshman at running back.

13. Baylor – One of 2021’s other great stories, the Bears will hope to keep their forward momentum going after a 10-win improvement from 2020 to 2021 that saw them win the Big 12 title and the Sugar Bowl. Dave Aranda’s team will have to replace a lot of production from last year, including QB Gerry Bohanon (though before he entered the portal Aranda announced Bohanon had already lost the QB1 spot to Blake Shapen during spring practice). More importantly will be filling in some holes on a defense that was #2 in the Big 12. LSU transfer LB Josh White should help in that regard.

14. Michigan – Who else other than Jim Harbaugh could fly to Minnesota one day to interview for an NFL job he thought was in the bag, not get the job, then return to Michigan the next day and be rewarded with a new contract? Oh, and despite all that uncertainty happening just days before National Signing Day he still held on to pretty much his entire incoming freshman class. Harbaugh didn’t come out completely unscathed though, as he lost OC Josh Gattis to Miami and DC Mike Macdonald to his brother in Baltimore. Harbaugh also has to replace a lot of production on both sides of the ball from last year’s surprising Big Ten champ and CFP participant. Seeing more of QB JJ McCarthy in his sophomore season might bring some juice to the offense, but it’s hard to say how much right now since he missed all of spring practice with a shoulder injury.

15. Tennessee – Big things are expected in Knoxville after Josh Heupel had a successful debut in 2021. QB Hendon Hooker, who grew 31 touchdowns and led the SEC in efficiency, is back to command Heupel’s breakneck offense. Hooker will have his favorite receiver back in Cedric Tillman and most of the offensive line in front of him returns, though they could stand to improve in pass protection. The defense will really need to improve upon last season for the Volunteers to maintain their upward trajectory. They’ll rely heavily on several incoming freshmen and JUCO transfer CB Desmond Williams to provide that improvement.

16. Miami – In the seemingly never-ending quest to find a coach who will restore The U, Miami swung big and connected on alum and native son Mario Cristobal. After winning two Pac-12 titles in four seasons at Oregon, and more importantly recruiting like an SEC school, he takes his recruiting talents to South Beach where there are as many blue chip HS players as there are ventanitas. Just as impressive is the staff Cristobal assembled; which includes 2021 Broyles Award winning OC Josh Gattis and DC Kevin Steele. QB Tyler Van Dyke returns along with 6 other offensive starters to lead what should be a very good group. No question Miami, who underinvested in the program for many years but is now spending big, has high expectations. Despite the optimism, questions still follow Cristobal from Oregon about his in-game decision making and whether his players consistently execute up to their talent level.

17. NC State – This feels a little low for a Wolfpack team that went 9-3 (their bowl game was cancelled when UCLA suffered a COVID outbreak) and returns 17 starters, including QB Devin Leary, who may be the best college QB no one outside Raleigh has heard of. Even better is the defense, which returns 9 starters to a unit that was Top 20 in scoring and pass efficiency last year. About the only thing missing is LT Ikem Ekwonu, who was the #6 overall pick in the NFL draft. Suffice to say expectations are high for Dave Doeren’s squad. At the very least, they need to be challenging for the division title with Clemson and last year’s Atlantic champ, Wake Forest.

18. Iowa – The Hawkeyes return 14 starters from last season’s 10-4 Big Ten West-winning squad, and once again they should be very good on defense with DB Riley Moss and LB Jack Campbell returning, and have a solid running game behind a very good OL. Which is just a euphemism for saying the Hawkeyes will go as far as their QB will take them, which in the past has left them with a hard ceiling. This year it looks like that task will again reside on the shoulders of Spencer Petras. In 12 starts last season Petras averaged an anemic 6.5 yards per attempt and a sub-50 QBR, with only 10 TDs. That won’t cut it. HC Kirk Ferentz handed over the QB coaching duties to his son Brian, who was already the offensive coordinator. Iowa is all known for having great TEs, and this year Sean LaPorta returns, which should benefit Petras.

19. Oregon – Mario Cristobal did not leave a bare cupboard for former Georgia DC Dan Lanning to take over, as many members of what were Top 10 recruiting classes the past couple years stuck around. Though one thing that has somewhat haunted the Ducks for nearly a decade now, save the Justin Herbert era, is their inability to develop a QB, forcing them to rely mostly on transfers as a stopgap. That may be the case yet again this year as Auburn transfer Bo Nix appears to have the edge over holdovers Ty Thompson and Jay Butterfield. While the defense loses its biggest stud in DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, ILB Noah Sewell returns to lead what should be an impressive unit under the tutelage of Lanning, who oversaw arguably the best defense of the century last season.

20. Arkansas – The Hogs won 9 games in 2021, after winning only seven combined from 2018-20. If they are to build off that success, it will be with quite a few new faces. QB KJ Jefferson returns, but he’ll need a new favorite target now that WR Treylon Burks is off to the NFL. Oklahoma transfer Jadon Haselwood should be able to assume some of the load. More importantly for head coach Sam Pittman is rebuilding a defense that lost 8 starters. The transfer portal helped by bringing in former SEC foes S Latavious Brini (Georgia), CB Dwight McGlothern (LSU), LB Drew Sanders (Alabama) and DE Landon Jackson (LSU) for reinforcements.

21. Wake Forest – With QB Sam Hartman and 7 other starters back leading one of the nation’s most potent offensive attacks, the Demon Deacons should be in the mix to defend their ACC Atlantic title. The could stand to improve in short-yardage situations, and they’ll need to find a replacement for leading rusher Christian Beal-Smith, who transferred to South Carolina. Much like the year before when they had to replace Kenneth Walker III, they should be fine with Justice Ellison and Christian Turner. It’s the defense that must improve from last season, but at least there’s not much direction for it to go other than up. Dave Clawson brought Dave Lambert back to Winston-Salem as defensive coordinator. DT Kobie Turner, and All-CAA transfer from Richmond, should help.

22. USC – Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams have generated a nearly unprecedented level of hype and expectations in their short time in LA thus far. That’s asking an awful lot considering how gutted the Trojans roster was after years of poor recruiting along with the typical coaching change exodus. That said, no one has tapped into the transfer portal more than Riley, even if not entirely by choice. As has been the case for years, depth along the lines will be an issue for the Trojans. The OL should be able to give Williams enough time to find his bounty of receivers, but they need to give Oregon transfer RB Travis Dye some running room too. The defense will be an issue, one that might take a couple recruiting cycles to build, despite DC Alex Grinch being one of the best in the business.

23. Houston – Dana Holgerson was very active in the transfer portal in preparing the Cougars in their final season as a G5 ahead of their promotion to the Big 12 in 2023. OLs Lance Robinson (Middle Tennessee) and Tyler Johnson (Texas) will shore up the losses up front. Unfortunately Holgerson doesn’t have an obvious solution for replacing RB Alton McCaskill (961 yards, 17 TDs in 2021) who tore his ACL during spring practice and is expected to miss the entire season. If they can replace his production, the Cougars should be the favorite to win the AAC and claim a New Years Six bowl.

24. Wisconsin – The Badgers took some big losses, to the tune of 8 starters, on a defensive unit that was tops in the nation last season in yards allowed per game. Still Jim Leonhard’s group should be pretty stout, though they might want to revisit the transfer portal for some help at safety. Offensively, RB Braelon Allen and an experienced offensive line should have the Badgers in the mix in the Big Ten West. However, to really reach their ceiling the Badgers must get more consistency out of QB Graham Mertz in his third season as starter.

25. Cincinnati – The Cinderella Bearcats have some big losses to overcome from their team that broke the G5 glass ceiling and made the Playoff. Their final season before joining the Big 12 doesn’t come with nearly the same expectations, but never count Luke Fickell out. Only two starters return to one of the nation’s best defenses, but DE Malik Vann should be able to replicate Myjai Sanders’s sack and pressure rates, and OLB Deshawn Pace and Miami (OH) transfer ILB Ivan Pace Jr (no relation) should fill in admirably too. QB Ben Bryant and RB Ryan Montgomery will look to fill the shoes of NFL’ers Desmond Ridder and Jerome Ford, respectively.

Mike Lowe
Mike Lowe

College Football Analyst

Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.

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