The SEC West has long been viewed as the toughest division in college football. That likely hasn’t changed. The only question is whether or not there is a team that can take the throne from Alabama. Here is my preview of teams, listed in predicted order of finish.


Alabama – 2021 was expected to be a transitional season for the Tide, who were breaking in a lot of inexperienced players. All they did was win the SEC and came one quarter short of another national championship. As if that isn’t enough to take the wind out of the sails of the rest of college football, head coach Nick Saban was very effusive (at least for him) in evaluating his team after spring practice, calling them a “fun group to coach” and that they’ve “been really good.” It goes without saying that Alabama returns arguably the best players on each side of the ball in Heisman-winning QB Bryce Young and 5th place vote-getter LB Will Anderson. That doesn’t mean there aren’t question marks for this team; there are. But there are potential answers for each of those questions too.

When you have a Heisman QB who is a sure-fire 1st Round NFL draft pick, the passing game will naturally be the focal point of your offense. So while the Tide are never going to resort to three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust, they still want to run the ball much better than last season (their 0.011 EPA per rush was just 75th in FBS). With leading rusher Brian Robinson off to the NFL, the carries will mostly go to Georgia Tech transfer Jahmyr Gibbs, who looked impressive in spring practice. The true emphasis for improvement rests with the offensive line, which despite having a Top 10 draft pick in Evan Neal last season was mostly average as a unit, and at times even subpar. The poor rushing numbers only tell half the story, as they also struggled to protect Young; their 2.73 sacks-per-game allowed was 103rd in the nation and 6.9 tackles-for-loss-per-game 111th. Three starters are back, but as a unit they must do better. The WR corps is the other question mark, but like ’21’s top WR Jameson Williams – who transferred from Ohio State – expect some new faces to carry the load. Jermaine Burton (Georgia) and Tyler Harrell (Louisville) could make up for the loss of Williams and John Metchie. TE Cameron Latu will be expected to play a bigger role with the transfer of Jahleel Billingsley to Texas.

The defense has the makings of one of Saban’s early-Alabama era crews; especially at linebacker where along with Anderson (34.5 TFL, 17.5 sacks) they return Dallas Turner on the opposite edge, who some say could be just as good as Anderson, and Henry To’o To’o in the middle. On the back end, the safeties led by Jordan Battle and DeMarco Hellams are very good, and injuries to last year’s starters enabled this year’s CBs to gain a lot of valuable late-season experience. The defensive line is thin on experience, with DE Byron Young the top starter back, but that is a unit Saban has recruited so well over the years that we’ve come to expect them to simply plug-and-play the next man. This year will likely be no different, though they could improve upon their tackling from last season .

Texas A&M – It’s not often you feel the need to defend yourself as a head coach for signing the top recruiting class in the country. But this is the Name-Image-Likeness era, and Jimbo Fisher isn’t really known for holding back when he feels he’s been called out, as Nick Saban will no doubt attest. Whether A&M “bought” those players during the recruiting process, or they’re simply getting lucrative earning opportunities afterward, there’s no denying the talent that has been infused into the Aggies’ roster. This on top of the talent they already had; their previous three classes ranked no lower than 8th. So how did the Aggies, with talent good enough to beat Alabama last season, go just 8-4? It can mostly be chalked up to inexperienced and inconsistent quarterbacking.

Haynes King, the expected starter at QB last season, suffered a broken leg early in the second game of the season. Fisher was forced to resort to Zach Calzada, who struggled at times and has since transferred to Auburn. King returns, and is joined by LSU transfer Max Johnson and 5-star recruit Conner Weigman. Whoever wins the job, the production from QB1 is expected to be improved. The Aggies have two game-breaking weapons returning to the offense in RB Devon Achane (7.9 yards-per-touch when he got at least 12) and WR Ainais Smith, though Smith’s current legal situation leaves his availability in question. Three starting offensive lineman are back, though the entire left side must be replaced; and while there is a lot of talent to select from, there is very little experience.

The defense will have a lot of new faces due to attrition, starting with replacing coordinator Mike Elko who left to take the head coaching job at Duke. His replacement, DJ Durkin, oversaw a vast improvement of the Ole Miss defense from ’20 to ’21. He will have a very inexperienced defensive line to work with, where every starter from last season must be replaced. Their historic recruiting class this year includes 8 DL, so expect some to compete for early playing time. The Aggies also must replace two of their starting linebackers, and unlike the line the LB corps is much thinner on depth. The secondary is, by far, the most experienced and deepest returning unit, led by CBs Jaylon Jones and Tyreek Chappell along with S Demani Richardson. Expecting the defense to live up to its 2021 standard (4th in the country in EPA per game) is likely asking too much, which puts more emphasis on getting improved quarterbacking.

Arkansas – Among the surprises of the 2021 season was Arkansas, who under second-year coach Sam Pittman went 9-4, more wins than in the three seasons prior to Pittman’s arrival combined. They went from SEC West basement-dweller to highly competitive in a hurry. The question now becomes whether or not that can be sustained.

Offensively Arkansas’ fortunes begin with the return of QB KJ Jefferson. In addition to being the 4th highest-rated passer in the SEC last season, Jefferson was also the Razorbacks’ leading rusher (664 yards). While the Hogs are a run-first team, Jefferson’s success will rely heavily on finding receiving options to replace WR Treylon Burks, who accounted for 40% of the team’s receiving production. Given the lack of returning experience and production due to other WR attrition, Jefferson will likely need to spread the ball out until a leader emerges. But again, Arkansas got to nine wins by running the ball, and they should be able to do that effectively again, aided by the return of 4/5 of their offensive line. While their leading rusher among RBs transferred out, they have enough returning talent and production to compensate.

While the offense, minus Burks, returns nearly intact, the defense is not so fortunate. Despite ranking 5th in the SEC last season in yards-per-play and 6th in scoring, they largely struggled in the Razorbacks’ four losses. Four of their front seven need to be replaced from a group that couldn’t effectively rush the passer last year (25 total sacks, 13th in the SEC). Improvement should come from Alabama transfer edge-rusher Drew Sanders. Bumper Pool, a 2nd team All-Conference linebacker (and 1st team on the All-American Names list), is back as the leading tackler. While the Hogs’ pass rush was not good in ’21, they still managed to hold opponents to less-than 250 yards per game last season. And in 5 of those games they held opponents under 150 yards. Again, the problem was the performance in those four losses. While they must replace two starters in the secondary this season, they do have an experienced group to call upon, led by All-American safety Jalen Catalon. The hope is that an improved back-end will allow the defense to give multiple looks up front to boost the pass rush.

Mississippi State – Head coach Mike Leach enjoyed some of his best success in his previous coaching stops, Texas Tech and Washington State, when he had veteran teams. If that trend continues, this could be a fun season in Starkville. The Bulldogs return a total of 17 starters and 42 lettermen from last year’s squad that won seven games, including three against ranked opponents – Texas A&M, Kentucky and Auburn – plus another that ended the season ranked in NC State.

Only three times in his head-coaching career has Leach had a third-year starter at QB, and each of those seasons resulted in at least 9 wins. This year quarterback Will Rogers returns for his third season as the starter. Rogers was very efficient in ‘21, setting a school record for passing yards in a season with 4,739 while completing nearly 74% of his attempts for 36 TDs and 9 INTs. But the offense was not as explosive as the numbers might suggest, ranking just 64th in the country in yards per-play (5.9). Still, Leach’s Air Raid offense depends on a very symbiotic relationship between the QB and his receivers, and Rogers’s experience combined with the return of 3 of 4 starting WRs is a big plus. Protecting Rogers will be important as well, and the Bulldogs must replace both starting tackles, including 1st Round draft pick Charles Cross. The running game is just window-dressing in the Air Raid, but leading rusher Dillion Johnson (485 yards) is back and he also contributed 65 catches for 422 yards last year. Right behind him is Jo’quavious Marks who rushed for 434 yards and had 83 receptions for 502 yards.

Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett’s 3-3-5 scheme has one similarity to Leach’s Air Raid offense; every player on the field must know what the others are doing and respond accordingly. Having many players who have played together can be a huge benefit. That is why the return of nine starters has coaches just as excited about the defense’s potential as the offense. Not only are many of 2021’s starters back, but many of them have been playing college football for five, even six years. This is a veteran group. One of the weaknesses, both in the scheme and how it’s executed, is that it can be prone to big plays if there is just one breakdown. That was a problem last season; the Bulldogs were 101st in the country in 40+ yard plays allowed with 17, and also allowed 10 plays of 50+ yards (105th). If they can tighten that up, this could be a stout group that can frustrate offenses at times. They’re led by CB Emmanuel Forbes, the active SEC career interceptions leader (8) and the active FBS leader in Pick Six’s (3).

Ole Miss – After leading the Rebels to their first 10-win season in school history, Lane Kiffin, in his third season at the helm, faces a massive rebuilding job. Only 12 starters return, while Kiffin brought in 17 transfers, nearly all of whom will be expected to start or contribute immediately. On top of that he had to replace both the offensive and defensive coordinators, plus three other assistants. While few coaches seem to embrace chaos like Kiffin, even he acknowledges putting together so many unfamiliar pieces presents a significant challenge

One thing that can’t be denied is Kiffin’s acumen as one of the better offensive minds in college football. He’ll be breaking in a 29 year-old OC in Charlie Weis, Jr. and a new starting QB to replace Matt Corral, now in the NFL. The leading candidates are redshirt freshman Luke Altmyer, who replaced Corral in the Sugar Bowl when the latter sprained an ankle, and had a rough go of it (sacked 7 times, 2 INTs). The other candidate is USC transfer Jaxson Dart. Altmyer was the more impressive in the spring game, but the competition should continue into August. Perhaps the best incoming transfer of all is RB Zach Evans, formerly of TCU, who averaged 7.3 yards per carry with the Horned Frogs. The top three wide receivers from last season are all gone. Malik Heath, who transferred up the road from rival Mississippi State, will be expected to pick up a chunk of that production. Another chunk will likely be picked up by Dart’s former USC teammate, TE Michael Trigg. While the Rebels return 3/5 of their starting offensive line, the unit will need to be better than it was last season, when they were 97th in sacks allowed (34) and 113th in tackles-for-loss surrendered (92).

Under former defensive coordinator DJ Durkin, the Rebels played a dime defense as their base (2 cornerbacks, 3 safeties and a nickel). How much his replacements, safeties coach Chris Partridge and former Western Kentucky DC Maurice Crum, will employ the same alignment remains to be seen; but it would make sense to do so, as many of their returning starters comprise the secondary. Up front they will miss the pass-rushing of Sam Williams, a 2nd Round NFL pick who led the team with 12.5 sacks. Georgia Tech transfer Jared Ivey will be tasked to make up for some of that. At linebacker, their best player is likely also a transfer, Troy Brown of Central Michigan, a three-time All-MAC player with 215 career tackles. Safeties AJ Finley and Otis Reese, along with cornerback Deantre Prince, are the key returnees in a strong secondary.

LSU – Brian Kelly inherited a roster that had been gutted by attrition. The Tigers had only 39 scholarship players available for their bowl game last season. While there is some elite talent on the top layer, there is precious little depth, and it appears Kelly is headed for a multi-year rebuild. That could be a benefit, as he is attempting to instill a culture of discipline and accountability that was lacking before, and the sooner he turns over the roster the sooner that new culture could take hold. Ultimately, it’s tough to evaluate how good they could be, as so much depends on how much their depth will end up being tested.

It is literally a four-horse race to be the QB1 this fall. First, there is 6th-year senior Myles Brennan, who was in the transfer portal but elected to return. Then there is three-year starter Jayden Daniels, who transferred from Arizona State. Redshirt freshman Garrett Nussmeier, a former Top 100 recruit, and 5-star true freshman Walker Howard round out the QB room. Coming out of spring it appeared Nussmeier looked the best while Howard is likely to redshirt. While the battle for the starting quarterback job will get all the attention offensively, Kelly’s top priority is to improve the offensive line. Despite being loaded with a bevy of NFL talent over the years, LSU has struggled to recruit and develop offensive linemen. Fortunately that was Kelly’s strength at Notre Dame. This year’s line will probably be anchored by a true freshman LT, Will Campbell, who as a 5-star early enrollee appeared to win the job in spring practice. That allowed LSU to utilize its other top linemen to shore up other positions, though center is still a question mark. Unlike the offensive line, wide receiver is a position where you can find Tiger alums all over NFL rosters. This year’s lead dog should be Kayshon Boutte, who is expected to return from an ankle injury that required two surgeries and cost him half of last season. WR is also the rare position where they have talented depth. If former 5-star RB John Emery can finally put it all together, the Tigers could have some semblance of a good offense this season.

The inverse of the offense, the LSU defense is excellent at the line of scrimmage, but very iffy behind. The front is anchored by two likely early NFL draft picks in BJ Ojulari and Ali Gaye. Jaquelin Roy and Maason Smith man the middle of the trenches, and both possess Sunday-level talent as well. Mike Jones Jr, and Greg Penn look like the starters at linebacker, a unit that also returns 2021 leading tackler Micah Baskerville. The cornerback position is a huge question mark, with Derek Stingley off to the NFL and Eli Ricks now at Alabama. Louisiana transfer Mekhi Gardner and Oklahoma State transfer Jarrick Bernard-Converse are the hoped-for replacements. Jay Ward and Major Burns return and are expected to start at the safety spots.

Auburn – For a program that did not undergo a head coaching change, no team experienced a more tumultuous offseason than Auburn. That’s not to say they didn’t come close to firing head coach Bryan Harsin. A large exodus of players to the transfer portal – many citing the culture of the program as their reason for leaving – the firing of one coordinator, the departure of another who actually took a pay cut to leave, and an uprising of boosters who were never fans of the Harsin hire to begin with, all led to a one-week investigation into his leadership of the program after only one season. Remarkably, Harsin held on to his job, but the questions about whether he truly has the confidence of the administration, his players, and potential recruits remain. For now the players who stuck it out with him are saying all the right things, but it’s a difficult walk back when you are right on the precipice of firing a coach.

One of the key departures among players was three-year starting QB Bo Nix, who while very talented was equally as inconsistent in his time on the Plains. Nix is at Oregon now, but the Tigers got a swap with former Duck QB Robby Ashford transferring in. Ashford is expected to compete with TJ Finley, who started the Alabama game last year in place of an injured Nix (and nearly won), and Texas A&M transfer Zach Calzada (who did beat Alabama last season). Expect the competition to last well into preseason practices. The running game should be a strength, led by returning rushing leader Tank Bigsby (1,099 yards). The receiver corps is far less certain, though WR Shedrick Jackson and TE John Samuel Shenker provide decent returning experience. The Tigers return four starters to their offensive line, plus more players with some starting experience, but they will need to produce better than they did in ’21. Despite a very good rushing season by Bigsby, as a team Auburn averaged just 3.52 yards per carry last season, 99th in the nation.

The Tigers lost 7 defensive lineman to the portal from last season, but they are fortunate to return two starters in Colby Wooden and Marcus Harris. Edge-rusher Derek Hall, last season’s sack leader, is also back and is backed up by the very capable Eku Leote. Owen Pappoe returns to lead an otherwise inexperienced linebacker corps. The secondary lost all four starters from last season, and will be relying heavily on transfers to stabilize the unit.

Mike Lowe
Mike Lowe

College Football Analyst

Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.

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