Just when you think you have the playoff picture figured out, along comes a week that shakes everything up. That was Week 10 in a nutshell. Let’s have a look.

  • Many, myself included, were lamenting that Clemson sat at #4 in the first CFP rankings, with seemingly a clear path to the playoff. Yes, they were unbeaten and defeated three ranked teams (at the time). But our eyeballs told us a different story – this was not a Top 4 team. Still, with a comparatively manageable schedule remaining, little stood in their way of playoff destiny. So off Clemson went, to South Bend, Indiana, hoping to avenge a 2020 loss to Notre Dame in what was maybe the best game of that entire season. Few expected this matchup to be as thrilling. The prognosticators were only partially correct. The game was not competitive, but it was thrilling from the perspective of being the most unexpected result thus far of the final sprint to the playoff. The Irish absolutely manhandled Clemson, not just exposing the flaws so many believed were always there, but ripping the flaws out and leaving the bloody carcass lying in the shadow of the golden dome. While we can’t completely write Clemson off just yet (crazier things have happened) the Tigers’ playoff hopes are probably on life support, needing lots of scenarios to play out in their favor.
  • Words to always remember at this time of year: Getting worked up over early-November CFP rankings is a pointless exercise. The “issues” and questions almost always work themselves out by the end.
  • When do we start to realize that things are not right at Alabama these days? If we set aside their 41-24 victory over Georgia in last season’s SEC Championship game, what do we see in the 2021-22 Crimson Tide? I see a very good team, a team that is elite in terms of talent, but not a team that has played anywhere near the standard it set over the previous decade. I see a team that consistently plays down to the level of its opponent away from home, and even at home on a couple occasions. They shoot themselves in the foot with penalties and untimely turnovers. They force very few turnovers of their own. The offensive line consistently struggles, especially protecting the quarterback. The secondary is vulnerable, despite having the benefit of a great pass rush. The previous decade always featured at least one, and sometimes multiple, elite wide receivers they developed. Last season they had to go to the transfer portal for that. This season the portal has not provided such returns. What is Alabama right now? I think they’re a very good team that is also very beatable on any given Saturday, especially if you get them in your house.
  • Now the bigger picture – is the Nick Saban dynasty at Alabama over? Well, if LSU doesn’t convert a 2-point attempt in overtime, or Will Reichard makes a 50-yard field goal at Tennessee, are we even asking this question? On the other hand, if Texas doesn’t lose Quinn Ewers to injury in the 1st Qtr, or Texas A&M gets a touchdown from the 2-yard line, are we also asking this question? Alabama is two plays away from 9-0, but also two plays away from 5-4. Dynasties don’t move at race-car speeds, they move at glacial speeds. Maybe the Alabama dynasty has ended, or is close to it; or maybe we’re way too premature. You don’t find the answer to that question after just one game, or even one whole season. Dynasties typically end before people even realize they’re over. History is the judge, not some media personality filling air time with hot takes. This is not to say that Nick Saban hasn’t come to an inflection point in his tenure. He definitely has. The execution has been substandard for two seasons running, and can no longer be considered a fluke. Changes are coming in Tuscaloosa. Saban has said several times how much he likes his players and enjoys coaching them. That’s code for, this is not a player issue. Expect big changes this offseason to the coaching staff.
  • One last thought. While the narrative that Alabama has slipped gets all the attention, I’d like to point out another perspective. The rest of college football has been catching up to them. Nick Saban set a standard, not just for Alabama, but for the entire sport. That’s when you know you are a witness to greatness.
  • Is Georgia the new standard-bearer in college football now? Maybe. Again, dynasties are not built overnight. But it is hard to argue that they aren’t currently the best of the best. Consider what their defense did to Tennessee’s #1 offense last weekend – minus 5 first round NFL draft picks from last season, plus with LB Nolan Smith out for the season. The Vols got an early field goal that was set up for them by a fumble on Georgia’s first possession. Tennessee’s next points came in the 2nd quarter, when an 11-play, 56-yard drive netted them another field goal. This would be their most productive drive of the game, at least while it still mattered. The Vols’ only other score came on a TD with 4:15 left in the game when the Bulldogs were up by 21. Yes, the hostile conditions in Athens, combined with the rainy weather, were not ideal for a team that wins with offense. But don’t let the 14-point margin mislead you. This game wasn’t that close.
  • The playoff selection committee seemed to penalize TCU in its first rankings because “they’ve been behind in games.” I thought what the scoreboard says at the end of the game is all that mattered. Well, the Horned Frogs continued to live dangerously again last Saturday. They trailed Texas Tech 17-13 entering the 4th Quarter, then scored three unanswered touchdowns to win comfortably. Thanks to some help in front of them, the committee decided they could overlook the early deficits, and here the ‘Horns sit at #4, in control of their playoff destiny. The next two weeks won’t be easy – they play at #18 Texas and then at Baylor, who have very quietly become a factor in the Big 12 again. A win Saturday clinches TCU a spot in the conference championship game. But the Frogs are probably thinking bigger, and their initial CFP ranking at #7 may be a signal that they don’t have room for error if they want to be in the final four.
  • After TCU, perhaps no one benefitted more from Saturday’s results than Oregon. It wasn’t long ago the conventional wisdom was that even if they ran the table, there was no chance the Ducks would be able to erase the memory of the 49-3 humiliation they suffered at the hands of Georgia to open the season. The score wasn’t as awful-looking, but what just happened to Tennessee may provide some perspective to that Week 1 blowout. Now, the Ducks are #6, with two ranked teams left on their regular season schedule with which to impress the committee (#25 Washington and #13 Utah, both at home), and the potential to face an 11-1 team in either UCLA or USC in the conference title game. I’d say a path to the Top 4 is very much there for Oregon, though they almost certainly need TCU to stumble. The moral is, if you are going to lose, and especially lose ugly, be sure it happens in September.
  • If I had Heisman ballot, this is how I’d fill it out right now:
    1. Drake Maye
    2. CJ Stroud
    3. Hendon Hooker
    4. Israel Abanikande
    5. Bo Nix

My Top 25 rankings and the committee’s are identical at 1-7. We diverge after that.


On to Week 11. Some important games in the chase for conference titles.

#9 Alabama at #11 Ole Miss (3:30pm ET, CBS)

Line: Alabama -12 | Money Line: Alabama -440, Ole Miss +335 | O/U: 63.5

Are we really still making Alabama double-digit favorites on the road?

Who would have imagined weeks ago that coming onto this game it would be Ole Miss that has higher stakes to play for than Alabama? The Rebels have just one loss in conference, the same as LSU. But because they lost to the Tigers, they need help to win the SEC West. Still, they are in far better shape for the postseason than the Tide, whose path to the division title is as narrow as it gets.

Ole Miss has one of, and by some measures the best rushing offense in the country. True freshman Quinshon Judkins, transfer Zach Evans, and QB Jaxon Dart have combined to make their ground game pretty lethal. The problem is Alabama’s defense is excellent at stopping the run, and as a passer Dart has been just so-so. That doesn’t set the Rebels up very well for success. On the flip side, Ole Miss does a decent job of pressuring QBs, but I’m not sure they can do that consistently and effectively enough to stymie Bryce Young the way LSU did for 3 quarters.

Simply put, on paper this does set up as a game Alabama should be able to win by double digits. But football games aren’t played on paper. This game is in Oxford, and the fact that Alabama is no longer in the playoff hunt will not diminish what this game means to Ole Miss and the fans who will pack the stadium and make the atmosphere just as hostile as Alabama has faced and struggled with elsewhere. I’ll go with my standard pick here – the Tide should find a way to win, probably via some sort of magician act by Bryce Young, but they aren’t covering 12 points on the road.

My Pick: Ole Miss +12, Alabama -440

#22 UCF at #17 Tulane (3:30pm ET, ESPN2)

Line: Tulane -1.5 | Money Line: Tulane -130, UCF +110 | O/U: 54.5

This is a huge game in the AAC standings, and by extension one that will help determine who gets the G5 New Year’s Six bowl invite. These two teams, plus Cincinnati, find themselves in a three-way fight for two seats in the conference title game. UCF has an early edge via a win over the Bearcats two weeks ago. Tulane and Cincinnati play in the Big Easy to wrap up the regular season. The Knights winning here would virtually assure them of a place in the title game.

Green Wave QB Michael Pratt has quietly put together a very solid season, and some believe he has NFL potential. But the key for Tulane is their defense, currently 15th in the nation. They will be tested by Gus Malzahn’s offense which averages 501 yards per game, 7th in the country. I give Tulane the home field edge.

My Pick: Tulane -1.5, Tulane -130

#25 Washington at #6 Oregon (7pm ET, FOX)

Line: Oregon -13.5 | Money Line: Oregon -550, Washington +400 | O/U: 72.5

After nearly getting blanked in the season opening 49-3 loss against Georgia, the Oregon offense has been on an absolute tear, having scored at least 41 points in each of their other eight games. QB Bo Nix has displayed comfort and confidence he never seemed to have at Auburn, and has played his way into Heisman Trophy conversations. He accounts for 24.2 points per game, #1 in the country. The Ducks’ offensive success starts up front. Their line has allowed only one sack on the entire season. They face a Husky defense that surrendered an average of nearly 42 points during a three-game stretch against UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State. They allowed just 21 each to Cal and Oregon State in their last two games, but neither of those offenses are in Oregon’s stratosphere.

That said, Oregon’s defense still struggles. They are just 104th in the nation in stop rate (percentage of drives that end in punt, turnover or turnover on downs) and 125th in getting off the field on 3rd and long. QB Michael Penix Jr, who leads the country in passing yards per game, could have a huge day.

It’s in Autzen, so I like the Ducks to get the W. But I’m not confident the Oregon defense will get as many stops as they managed against UCLA to cover nearly two touchdowns.

My Pick: Washington +13.5, Oregon -550

#4 TCU at #18 Texas (7:30pm ET, ABC)

Line: Texas -7 | Money Line: Texas -278, TCU +222 | O/U: 65

How much longer can the Frogs keep living dangerously? They have trailed in the second half of 4 of their last 5 games. It doesn’t feel like something they can get away with at Texas.

‘Horns RB Bijan Robinson feels like the big key in this game, as he will face a TCU defense that allows 146 yards per game on the ground, 70th in the country. Frogs QB Max Duggan has elevated his passing game this season to go with his running ability, and is currently #4 in the country in passing efficiency. He can definitely stress the Longhorn defense. An interesting storyline in this game is longtime former TCU head coach Gary Patterson. He is now a defensive analyst with Texas, and many credit his Week 2 gameplan for Alabama with holding the Tide to just 20 points.

Vegas says it wouldn’t be an upset, but I feel like Texas pulls off a bit of a surprise here. But it’ll be closer than 7 points.

My pick: TCU +7, Texas -278

Mike Lowe
Mike Lowe

College Football Analyst

Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.

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