College Football 2022 – Week 13 Preview

Let’s take a look at playoff scenarios for each team that still has a somewhat realistic shot at getting in.

1. Georgia (11-0, 8-0 SEC)

Remaining Games: vs Georgia Tech 11/26, vs #6 LSU 12/3 (SEC Championship Game)

The Bulldogs would appear to have a similar setup as last season. As long as they don’t make an epic stumble against Georgia Tech, they would make the playoff regardless of the outcome of the conference championship game against LSU. They would simply be playing for seeding and the potential to play a semifinal game closer to home (Peach Bowl in Atlanta vs Fiesta Bowl in Arizona)

2. Ohio State (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten)

Remaining Games: vs #3 Michigan 11/26

The Buckeyes need to avenge their 2021 loss to Michigan to ensure they’re in. They would be unlikely to face much of a challenge in the conference championship game from the West Division winner. A loss to Michigan does leave open the possibility they could still get in at 11-1, but they would need help in the form of some combination of losses by teams like TCU, LSU, USC, and Clemson.

3. Michigan (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten)

Remaining Games: at #2 Ohio State 11/26

Pretty much the exact same scenario as for Ohio State above. Only difference is that if they have to hope to make it as an 11-1 team, a weaker non-conference schedule than OSU could be problematic.

4. TCU (11-0, 8-0 Big 12)

Remaining Games: vs Iowa State 11/26, TBD 12/3 (Big 12 Championship Game)

TCU doesn’t seem to have as much margin for error based on coming in at just #7 in the initial CFP rankings despite having defeated 4-straight AP Top 25 teams. Defeats ahead of them have put the Horned Frogs in control of their own destiny. With a loss, they would not only need losses below them from the usual suspects (LSU, USC, and Clemson), but would perhaps need more of those teams to lose than Ohio State or Michigan would.

5. LSU (9-2, 6-1 SEC)

Remaining Games: at Texas A&M 11/26, vs #1 Georgia 12/3 (SEC Championship Game)

This might be the the most serious discussion of a two-loss team’s playoff hopes we’ve had in the CFP era. It would seem only fitting that it’s LSU…in 2007 they lost two games and still made the BCS Championship game, and won. Obviously such a scenario involves the Tigers knocking off Georgia. That seems unlikely. But let’s say it happens? No SEC Champion has ever missed the playoff. Does beating Georgia and Alabama in the same season take precedence over two losses, both of which came against currently ranked teams (Tennessee and Florida State)?

6. USC (10-1, 8-1 Pac-12)

Remaining Games: vs #15 Notre Dame, TBD 12/2 (Pac-12 Championship Game)

The Trojans would seemingly appear to control their own destiny. Their only loss was by 1-point to #10 Utah on the road. They have two games remaining against ranked teams; Notre Dame and their opponent to be determined in the Pac-12 Championship Game. That would be a strong finish if they can win out. Strong enough you would think they’d definitely move ahead of the Ohio State-Michigan loser. Could they move ahead of LSU if they beat ND, while LSU only plays Texas A&M? A stumble by TCU would be a good backup in case they didn’t jump Tennessee. I have a hard time seeing them left out if they run the table. That said, I don’t see them running the table, but that’s another matter.

8. Clemson (10-1, 8-0 ACC)

Remaining Games: vs South Carolina 11/26, vs #17 North Carolina 12/3 (ACC Championship Game)

We can’t writ the Tigers off just yet, but as evidenced by their ranking, they need the most help to make it. Winning alone is not likely to bump them above enough teams. They need TCU, LSU and USC all to suffer one more loss, and hope that’s enough to leapfrog them all. At question is whether or not the Michigan-Ohio State loser would drop below them. Probably not after this weekend, but maybe after championship weekend, when Clemson would have (presumably) beaten North Carolina while the other sat at home. By the way, North Carolina’s upset loss against Georgia Tech not only ruined the Tar Heels’ slim chances of getting in the playoff, but it also didn’t help Clemson’s resume.

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So now let’s look at this week’s biggest games. Note: The Tulane-Cincinnati game is on Friday.

#3 Michigan at #2 Ohio State (noon ET, FOX)

Line: Ohio State -7.5 | Money Line: Ohio State -305, Michigan +240 | O/U: 56

The most anticipated matchup of the week, and for the Big Ten the biggest game of the season. I’ve outlined above what this game means, and it’s so much more than just the winner of the East Division. The winner has a clear path to the playoff; the loser can only hope for the best. Many bring up what happened last season, when Michigan snapped an eight-game losing streak in the series, as having an impact on this game. I think that’s overblown. There’s plenty enough on the line for this season that neither team needs to look to last year for motivation of confidence.

Both of these teams have injury concerns at running back. For Michigan, Heisman candidate Blake Corum had to leave last week’s game at Illinois. Coach Jim Harbaugh said Corum could have returned, but given Michigan was trailing until the final play of that game, I find his comment suspicious. For the Buckeyes both Miyan Williams and Tre’Veyon Henderson have issues. Williams did not play against Maryland last week, and Henderson left the game after being ineffective and was seen on the sideline in a walking boot. Luckily for OSU, true freshman Dallan Hayden came in and ran for 146 yards and 3 TDs to help secure a close win over the Terps.Williams and Henderson’s status for Saturday are unknown.

I expect Corum will play. Still, I like Ohio State in a tight one.

My Pick: Michigan +7.5, Ohio State -305

#19 Tulane at #24 Cincinnati (noon ET Friday, ABC)

Line: Cincinnati -1 | Money Line: Cincinnati -110, Tulane +110 | O/U: 44.5

Unfortunately I could not get this piece published before the game. Tulane pulled off the (mild) upset and defeated Cincinnati 27-24, clinching the top seed in the AAC Championship Game, which means they will host. Who they face will be determined by tomorrow’s UCF/USF game. If the Knights win, they’ll go to New Orleans. If they lose, Cincinnati gets a rematch. The winner of the AAC looks highly likely to claim the New Year’s Six bowl slot designated for the G5.

Tulane’s defense did a good job against the Bearcats, albeit they were facing a backup QB in Evan Prater. Starter Ben Bryant was injured last week against Temple, and it is unknown at this time if he’d be able to return if Cincinnati gets to play next week.

#9 Oregon at #21 Oregon State (3:30pm ET, ABC)

Line: Oregon -3 | Money Line: Oregon -155, Oregon State +130 | O/U: 59

For the first time since 2012 both teams enter the Civil War ranked. Oregon clinches a spot in the Pac-12 title game against USC with a win. With a loss, the Ducks still have a shot, but must have help in order to prevent either Washington or Utah from claiming the spot. For the Beavers, winning gives them a shot at their first 10-win season since 2006.

I think this game centers around the health of Oregon QB Bo Nix. After suffering an ankle injury against Washington, a gimpy Nix gutted it out against Utah on one leg. Normally a dual-threat, Nix showed very little mobility and did just enough barely to beat Utah (20-17) with his arm. The expectation is that Nix will play again this week, but he’s not expected to be much more mobile tan last week. For that reason, I like the Beavers, who by several measures have the best defense in the Pac-12, to pull the upset.

My Pick: Oregon State +3, Oregon State +130

#15 Notre Damę at #5 USC (7:30pm ET, ABC)

Line: USC -4.5 | Money Line: USC -195, Notre Dame +162 | O/U: 63

While all the talk will be about how much USC has on the line in this game, and a playoff berth is obviously a lot, don’t discount how motivated Notre Dame will be. After a rough start, particularly offensively, the Irish have turned their season around and have a shot at 10 wins in Marcus Freeman’s rookie campaign. If they win, a New Year’s Bowl is not out of the question. Knocking a long-time rival out of playoff contention doesn’t hurt either.

These teams are a contrast in style. USC is second in the country in averaging 513 yards of offense per game. Notre Dame has yet to allow an opponent more than 400 yards in a game; a list that includes teams like North Carolina and Ohio State, who are tied for 8th nationally with nearly 493 yards each per game. The Trojans must find a way to protect Caleb Williams against a stout pass rush. If they can, Williams and his receivers can have a big day. If not, it could be a long day for the Heisman hopeful. On the other side, USC must limit Notre Dame’s rushing yards and force them to throw. That’ll be tough for a defense that only ranks 66th in that category. But if they can, and force the Irish to throw, then Lombardi finalist DE Tuli Tuipulotu can get after QB Drew Pyne and the Trojan secondary can do the one thing they actually do well: get interceptions (their 18 on the season lead the nation).

My Pick: USC -4.5 | USC -195