Week 8 saw the defeat of two more unbeaten Top 10 teams. A third one had a close call. This is not to say the playoff field is any clearer, for those inclined to be thinking about that at this point. The Top 4 teams right now are Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee and Michigan. Future head-to-head matchups mean that two of those teams will have at least one loss by the time the regular season ends. Clemson and TCU are the only other unbeaten teams remaining. Clemson doesn’t figure to have any tough games remaining, but at the same time they do not have the look of an elite team, and could slip when it’s least expected. TCU made it through a challenging stretch, defeating four straight ranked opponents. But they still have tricky road games left in a deep Big 12 conference; at Texas and Baylor.
We are exactly one week away from the first release of the playoff rankings. Historically they have tracked the AP/Coaches polls, but there is usually a surprise or two. I will discuss my expectations for the first rankings in next week’s piece, but in forming expectations of what we will see, we have to account for a couple things. First, teams are ranked based solely on what they have done up to that point, not what they are expected to do. Don’t be surprised if a team like Ohio State, who have played just two teams with winning records thus far, Notre Dame and Rutgers, both just 4-3, don’t come in as high as their current #2 position in the polls. That said, they play #13 Penn State this weekend, so that will also change by the tie the first rankings are released (assuming they win, of course).
As long as we are talking rankings, no better time than to release my own Top 25.
Now, other Week 8 thoughts:
- It was no surprise that Ole Miss stumbled at LSU Saturday. I was surprised at how the Tigers completely wiped the field with them after the Rebels jumped to an early 17-3 lead. It looks like Brian Kelly has found the formula to un-tap the immense potential that QB Jayden Daniels possesses. The Arizona State transfer got off to a slow start, but has been tremendous the past two weeks. Next up: Alabama after a bye this weekend. Ole Miss, meanwhile, had their potent run-game largely stuffed by the LSU defense, and QB Jaxson Dart has not been the answer.
- Sticking with the SEC, has any team lurked under the radar more than South Carolina? I had them ranked a couple weeks ago after their big win at Kentucky, then dropped them following a bye. Not only did they return to my rankings after beating Texas A&M Saturday, but they cracked the AP and Coaches polls too. Their next three games are petty winnable (Missouri, at Vanderbilt, at Florida). Then they host Tennessee in what might be a very interesting game before finishing at in-state rival Clemson. QB Spencer Rattler has yet to rediscover the form he had in late 2020 at Oklahoma, and still turns the ball over too much. But without excelling in any one area, Frank Beamer’s bunch just finds a way to win. An 8-4 season is by no means out of the question.
- Chip Kelly must have thought he passed through a wormhole when he entered Autzen Stadium Saturday. The Oregon team on the field sure resembled the early 2010’s Kelly-era teams. They surgically sliced through an opposing defense, and did it fast. Only problem for Kelly is that he was standing on the visitor’s sideline in UCLA gear. The Ducks took down the #9 Bruins, and with it fell the Pac-12’s last unbeaten team – and perhaps last hope of ending a 5-year playoff drought. Oregon has a favorable schedule remaining, with Washington and Utah at home (where their defense plays much more respectable). Only the season finale at Oregon State looks tricky. Thing is, even at 12-1 and Pac-12 champions, I don’t think they can ever erase the memory of the 49-3 drubbing against Georgia in the season opener. It’s probably Rose Bowl or bust for the Ducks, or anyone else who might ultimately prevail in the title game.
- That was a huge come-from-behind win for Oklahoma State against Texas, with a dinged-up Spencer Sanders at QB no less. The Cowboys badly needed that win to stay right behind TCU and a potential rematch with the Horned Frogs in the Big 12 title game.
- The American Athletic Conference would appear to have the inside track at getting into a New Year’s Six Bowl. Cincinnati and Tulane are 6-1 and 7-1, respectively, and the only G5 teams ranked in the Top 25. The tricky part is that they play each other in the regular season finale, then potentially again the next week in the conference title game. It’s possible that both could end the season with two losses and open the door for another G5 conference champ to sneak in (Troy, Coastal Carolina, UTSA). Another possibility, UCF (5-2, 2-1 in conference) spoils the whole party and knocks them both off. The Bearcats head to Orlando this weekend to take on the Knights. That’s an underrated game to keep an eye on.
- What might have been for Wake Forest this season? They came up just short in double-overtime against Clemson. Win that game and they are 7-0 and very much in the driver’s seat for the Atlantic Division title, the ACC title, and perhaps even a Playoff berth (would a 13-0 Power 5 champion be left out?). Now, it looks like their best hope is a New Year’s Six bowl and a nice bullet point on Clemson’s resume for the Tiger’s CFP case.
- After two quiet weeks, the coaching carousel got cranked up. Will Healy was let go at Charlotte Sunday, just two seasons removed from leading the 49ers to their first ever bowl bid. They will be at the bottom of the food chain when hiring season gets going in December. The pros are that they do sit in a growing metropolis with plenty of football talent nearby. They also have a decent on-campus stadium. The downside is they only paid Healy $835,000 a year, just 7th among the 11 Conference USA schools. Barring a significant bump in that number, the next guy will be tough to find, and may not stick long if he has any success.
Still keeping my head above water going against the number.
Week 8 Pick Record: 5-0 straight up, 3-2 ATS (Overall: 27-9 straight up, 18-16-2 ATS)
Time to talk Week 9. It’s the time of the season when a lot of teams are on a bye. We have just three Top 25 matchups this week. Historically speaking that is not bad, but not as good as the rest of October has been.
#2 Ohio State at #13 Penn State (Noon ET, FOX)
Line: Ohio State -15.5 | Money Line: Ohio State -700, Penn State +500 | O/U: 62
I get the feeling we have yet to see Ohio State’s offense really click this season. If I’m right about that, then it is remarkable, and scary, that they have averaged over 517 yards per game (4th in the nation) and 49.6 points per game (2nd). It’s not as if all of the defenses they have played are lightweights either. Iowa, Notre Dame and Wisconsin are all Top 40. So is Penn State, and yet I think the Lions will suffer a similar fate.
The folks in Happy Valley can’t be all that happy that this game is a noon kickoff rather than their “White Out” game of the season under the lights. I’d venture the crowd behind the home team will probably be more subdued at that earlier hour. Just another edge for OSU. I’ll take the Buckeyes to win and cover.
My Pick: Ohio State -15.5 | Ohio State -700
#9 Oklahoma State at #22 Kansas State (3:30pm ET, FOX)
Line: Kansas State -1.5 | Money Line: Kansas State -125, Oklahoma State +105 | O/U: 56
This is a critical game for the #2 spot in the Big 12. The winner controls their own destiny for a likely rematch with TCU in the conference championship game. The loser falls a game behind in the standings, and with the disadvantage in the tie-breaker might be out altogether.
Kansas State QB Adrian Martinez’s status is up in the air. He suffered a lower-body injury late in the Iowa State game two weeks ago, then aggravated it last week at TCU, having to leave the game after the first series. His replacement, Will Howard, mostly played well in the loss, and had the Wildcats ahead 28-10 as halftime approached. But the KSU offense would fail to score for the remainder of the game as the Horned Frogs stormed to another comeback.
Oklahoma State is probably going to get their share of points, even on the road. Spencer Sanders was better against Texas last week, completing more than 50% of his pass attempts for the first time in three games. If Martinez can’t play, and right now my gut tells me he won’t, I like the Cowboys here.
My Pick: Oklahoma State +1.5 | Oklahoma State +105
#19 Kentucky at #3 Tennessee (7pm ET, ESPN)
Line: Tennessee -12.5 | Money Line: Tennessee -480, Kentucky +360 | O/U: 62.5
Tennessee didn’t let their win against Alabama go to their head against Tennessee-martin last week. The Vols did just what you are supposed to do against a vastly undermanned opponent – jump out to A 52-7 halftime lead, then let you backups take over as you coast to a 65-24 win. That’s a sign of good coaching. Certainly the Vols are not going to rest on their laurels with a 19th-ranked border rival coming into Neyland.
The only question for me is whether Kentucky can score enough to cover a 12.5 point spread, to be honest. If QB Will Levis executes, the ‘Cats balanced offense should be able to put up points. We know Tennessee’s defense can give them up. Still, I think the Vols can cover less than two touchdowns at home.
My Pick: Tennessee -12.5 | Tennessee -480
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.