College Football 2022 – Week 9 Recap & Week 10 Preview

There’s lots of things to discuss summing up Week 9, the first CFP rankings, and previewing Week 10 – so let’s get right to it.

Of course, we have to lead off with the news that Bryan Harsin was finally, mercifully, fired at Auburn on Monday. The decision was made by the university’s president, mere hours after word got out that they were about to announce the hiring of a new athletic director; that being John Cohen, who is currently the athletic director at Mississippi State. Nice of Auburn to spare Cohen the task of having to fire Harsin as his first official act on the job.

Harsin always seemed like an odd fit for Auburn, and many of the money people were never on board with him – they attempted to engineer his ouster after just one season. The Tigers’ struggles on the field this season only served to make Harsin a dead-man-walking, and it was simply a question of whether he would survive the entire season. Question answered. This whole mess has not been a good reflection on Auburn. The school’s press release announcing the dismissal didn’t even mention Harsin’s name, much less thank him for his service. Still, no need to shed any tears, as Harsin will collect a $15.5 million buyout, half of which is due by November 30th. Add-in the buyout for Gus Malzahn, some of which Auburn still owes, and you have about $37 million that they will pay people to not to be the head coach their football team in a span of a couple years (and that doesn’t include buyouts for assistant coaches).

As we knew this move was coming, the list of potential replacements simply needs to be dusted off. Obvious names include Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin and Liberty coach Hugh Freeze, both of whom come with SEC head coaching experience. That said, both come with buyouts that would be due their current employers (Freeze just agreed to an extension at Liberty that will pay him about $5 million a year through 2030). Does Auburn what to spend any more money on buyouts than they already are? Mark Stoops’ name is bound to come up, but seems to me he already has one of the best jobs in college football at Kentucky – he’s paid in the upper echelon, has great facilities, and yet the fans are satisfied with 8-9 win seasons. Why leave that for a dysfunctional situation, where Malzahn was fired because he only went 3-5 against Nick Saban? Deion Sanders? Nope not feeling it. Bill O’Brien or Matt Rhule? Maybe.

Ok, let’s move on to some other Week 9 business.

• That was an ugly incident after the Michigan-Michigan State game in the tunnel exiting the field, where video appears to show several Michigan State players assaulting a Michigan player. So far, four MSU players have been indefinitely suspended, UM police are investigating, and the Wolverine player in the video, Gemon Green, intends to press charges. This annual game is one of the more underrated rivalries in college football. Michigan-Ohio State gets all the fanfare, but the battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy has a lot of emotion on both sides, which unfortunately has also featured some childish antics in the past. Sadly, those antics devolved even further into what happened Saturday night. [Note: Michigan State suspended an additional four players after I wrote this paragraph]

• One final thought: This is the third time in less than a calendar year that there has been some sort of incident involving opposing teams in the Michigan Stadium tunnel; last season’s Ohio State game and the Penn State game two weeks ago being the others. I suppose it might be asking too much to expect UM to reconfigure the stadium so that teams don’t have to come in contact with each other in relatively small confines on the way to the locker rooms, but I think it’s at least time for the Big Ten to step in and do something about how the teams exit the field. This is absolutely not meant as an excuse for the MSU players involved in Saturday’s incident, but I believe something like this was unfortunately bound to happen at some point.

• [Note: I am writing this paragraph Monday, one day before the CFP rankings are released] Headed into this weekend I was unsure who would be #1 in the first CFP rankings if everything followed chalk (Georgia, Ohio State and Tennessee all won). I am unsure no more – it’s gotta be Tennessee. They already have the best win of any team in the sport so far this season, that being against Alabama. They destroyed a pretty good LSU team in Baton Rouge. Then they completely dismantled Kentucky Saturday night. I was not surprised that they put up 44 points on the Wildcats, even though the UK defense was pretty good coming in (allowing just 16.4 points per game, 9th in the country). What surprised me is how the Vols’ offensive mojo rubbed off on their defense. The typically average unit held UK to just 6 points and 205 yards, and forced three Will Levis interceptions. If the Vols can simply get above average play from their defense at Georgia next week, an upset could definitely be in the cards.

• I see you, Kansas State. That was some curb-stomping you dealt Oklahoma State; with a backup quarterback, no less. The 48-0 whitewashing is the largest margin of defeat of a Top 10 team by a lower-ranked opponent in the history of the AP poll. It is also the worst defeat in Mike Gundy’s 18 seasons as the Cowboys’ head coach. Now the Wildcats control their destiny in reaching the Big 12 championship game and a hoped-for rematch with TCU. Though I will make a brief lobby for a TCU-Tulane matchup.

• That was one ugly loss by Wake Forest at Louisville. It didn’t start out that horribly. The Deacons had a 14-13 lead headed into halftime. They should have just stayed in the locker room. Wake turned the ball over 8 (EIGHT!) times in the second half. Six of them in the 3rd Qtr. I will leave it to the historians to find the last time a team had eight turnovers in one half of play, especially if/when the culprit was a ranked team (this week, the Deacs were just plain rank). The final score ended up being 48-21. I felt Wake had a good shot at a New Year’s Six bowl, now that the ACC Atlantic is pretty much Clemson’s to lose. Now? Oof. Louisville meanwhile has won three straight, and with James Madison coming to town is a favorite to clinch bowl eligibility. That’s a nice bounce-back after they fell to 2-3 following a 1-point loss to lowly Boston College.

• Another week, another ugly gaffe by Pac-12 officials. This time, with USC well in position for an end-of-half score at Arizona, the officials failed to stop the game clock as they spotted the ball following a USC first down, as college rules state they must. The clock wound down and half ended before the ball was ruled ready for play. The officials huddled to discuss the situation, and remedied it by doing….nothing. Luckily for USC they won the game anyway, but someone at Pac-12 headquarters had better wake up to how bad this problem has become, and fast.

• UCF got a big win against Cincinnati Saturday. The Knights are now just one game behind AAC-leading (and 19th ranked) Tulane in the standings. The two teams will meet in New Orleans on Nov 12th. Cincinnati isn’t out of the conference picture just yet, but they will need help. Houston, at 3-1 in conference, still lurks too. It sets up an interesting scenario as to who may earn the G5 New Year’s Six bowl bid. The AAC, by far the strongest G5 conference, may see its eventual champion somewhat diminished by attrition, opening up an avenue for someone like Coastal Carolina, UTSA, Troy, or Boise State to claim the coveted bid.

• One team that won’t get that bid is Liberty, who are now ranked #23 after a 41-14 win over BYU. The Flames, who are still an independent until they join Conference USA next season, are ineligible for the New Year’s Six AQ because it must go to a conference champion. Still, great season for them so far, and a very interesting test this Saturday at Arkansas.

• G5 teams you never imagined could reach bowl eligibility this season: Florida International (4-4 after going 1-11 last year), UConn (4-5, also 1-11 last year), and Southern Mississippi (5-3, went 3-9 in ’21).

Here is my Top 25 following Week 9.

And here are the first CFP rankings:

Four more Top 25 games in Week 10. Two of them may well decide the SEC East and West champions. Another has important Big 12 title game implications. The fourth is an ACC Atlantic consolation prize.

#1 Tennessee at #3 Georgia (3:30pm ET, CBS)

Line: Georgia -8 | Money Line: Georgia -292, Tennessee +235 | O/U: 66

If I said before the season that the Tennessee-Georgia game would be a #1 vs #3 matchup, you’d probably say, “Wow, Tennessee is having great season to be ranked #3.” The first playoff rankings are sometimes filled with surprises. Both of the major polls had Georgia #1 this week. I’m not that surprised the roles are reversed. Tennessee’s resume includes what might be the best win of any team in the country (Alabama), a blowout win on the road against the #10 team (LSU), and another blowout against a good Kentucky team. Georgia boasts a blowout win over #8 (Oregon), but not much else that pops off the chart, and the struggle at Missouri probably didn’t help either.

You can bet Kirby Smart isn not at all disappointed in being the lower-ranked team headed into this matchup. Not that you should need extra motivation for a game of this magnitude, but it sure doesn’t hurt. Georgia’s defense and Tennessee’s offense are the elite units that get all the press, but it’s what happens on the other side of the ball that I believe will decide this game. Georgia’s offense is just notch below elite. Tennessee’s defense is average, but played outstanding against Kentucky last week. If they can slow down Stetson Bennett and the tight ends, the Vols have a shot. Otherwise, Georgia wins easily. I like the Bulldogs.

My Pick: Georgia -8, Georgia -292

#6 Alabama at #10 LSU (7pm ET, ESPN)

Line: Alabama -13.5 | Money Line: Alabama -550, LSU +400 | O/U: 58

Can Alabama overcome their road woes, or will they continue to make life outside Tuscaloosa more difficult on themselves? They have averaged 14 penalties per game in their three road games this season so far. It’s tough to play on the road, but that’s bad by any standard, let alone Alabama’s standard. Protecting Bryce Young will be important, something Alabama has also struggled to do on the road. LSU’s defensive front gets good pressure on QBs, but they have to stay disciplined too; mobile QBs like Young have burned them at times this season.

Meanwhile, LSU has put up 45 points in each of its last two games. QB Jayden Daniels seems to have hit his stride in Brian Kelly’s offense, and he’s the kind of dual threat that can hurt you. They really need a big game from WR Kayshon Boutte; like the game he had at Florida (6 rec, 115 yards). His and Daniels’ ability to stretch the field on Alabama could open things up for everything else they want to do offensively.

I like Alabama, but once more, this spread is too wide for a team that struggles on the road and  is going against a tough opponent. Vegas doesn’t seem to be catching on.

My Pick: LSU +13.5 | Alabama -550

#24 Texas at #13 Kansas State (7pm ET, FOX)

Line: Texas -2.5 | Money Line: Texas -140, Kansas State +118 | O/U: 54.5

After their demolition of Oklahoma State last week, Kansas State sits alone in second place in the Big 12. Texas, meanwhile, is still in the race for a spot in the conference title game, but they have no margin of error.

I’m not sure why the Longhorns are favored in this one. Maybe it’s because they are coming off a bye, and the extra week to rest and prepare gives them an edge. I seriously doubt KSU is going to have a mental letdown here after a huge win last week. If you are a Big 12 team, and Texas comes into your house, you are going to be ready. No doubt about that. We still don’t know if QB Adrian Martinez will play for the Wildcats. But Will Howard has done well enough in his place that I don’t really think it matters.

My Pick: Kansas State +2.5, Kansas State +118

#21 Wake Forest at #22 NC State

Line: Wake Forest -4 | Money Line: Wake Forest -190, NC State +158 | O/U: 54

This could have been a huge ACC Atlantic matchup, bot now it just looks like the battle for distant second. And with each team already having two defeats, and no great wins on their resume, I’m not sure even a New Year’s Six bowl is on the line here.

Wake Forest has to be flat out embarrassed, maybe even angry, at how badly they melted down in the second half at Louisville last week. I think they are going to take it out on the Devin Leary-less Wolfpack.

My Pick: Wake Forest -4, Wake Forest -190