College Football 2023 – Post Week 1/Week 2 Preview

The usual post-Week 1 exercise is in full swing this week. It’s that time of year where we must try figure out whether we need to recalibrate our preseason expectations, or avoid overreacting and stand our ground. So with that, who are the real contenders, the pretenders, and the teams who just need to get a few kinks ironed out? Here’s my best guess.

Contenders

Florida State – The Seminoles had all the look of a complete team headed into the season. I thought they were just a slight notch below the top Playoff contenders. After watching their dismantling of LSU in the second half Sunday night, I’m recalibrating. As if they didn’t have enough offensive weapons coming back from last year, former Michigan State WR Keon Coleman looks like a total stud. Few coaches seem to have leveraged the transfer portal better than Mike Norvell. They need to avoid the bouts of inconsistency that have plagued them in the Norvell era thus far – they lost 3 straight last season after opening 4-0 – but I don’t see an obvious challenger in the ACC. (more on that later)

Utah – They won their season opener against Florida with 8 starters lost, either before or during the game, due to injuries – most notably QB Cam Rising and top TE Brant Kuithe. So they leaned on the best defense west of the Rocky Mountains and absolutely smothered Florida, allowing just 11 points (3 through the first three quarters) and 13 yards rushing on 21 attempts. The Gators helped them out with some self-inflicted wounds, but make no mistake, the Utes earned that one. If they can avoid a letdown this weekend on the road at Baylor – the potential returns of Rising and Kuithe would sure help – the Utes will be very well set once they get into conference play in a tough Pac-12.

Washington – If the Utes stumble, they will have very little margin for error. After a sluggish 1st Qtr, the Huskies woke up and obliterated what should be a very good Boise State team, 56-19. I’d like to see them run the ball better than they did Saturday (78 yards on 4.1 ypc), but when you have Michael Penix Jr, Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillen, your offense will score. Their defense had a great day and forced a lot of errors from Broncos QB Taylen Green. They’ll face much tougher competition when they get into conference play and get the likes of Caleb Williams, Bo Nix and DJ Uiagalalei.

Pretenders

Clemson – Yuck! There have been lots of whispers that maybe Clemson’s run of being among the college football elite is over in the wake of back-to-back 3-loss seasons. Those voices are getting louder after an ugly 28-7 loss to then-unranked Duke Monday night. Also getting much louder are the voices saying Dabo Swinney’s stubbornness in refusing to change with the times, especially filling out his roster via the transfer portal, are the primary reason Clemson’s run of greatness is over. I tend to agree that like it or not, you have to at least be willing to dip into the portal if not dive head first. Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy sums up why pretty succinctly:

“You can’t lose guys and then just replace them with high school freshmen, because you’re gonna have a team full of young kids and get your ass kicked for two years.”

It’s pretty clear where the Tigers need help. While they had their fair share of self-inflicted, and correctable, errors, their lack of playmakers at the WR position Monday stood out (4.9 yards per pass attempt, 7.7 yards per completion, no completions longer than 21 yards). This is no longer the program that produced the likes of De’Andre Hopkins and Mike Williams. Plus, the offensive line is just average…if that. They managed to move the ball into the redzone enough times, but couldn’t execute once they got there and the field shrank.

I thought Clemson and FSU were #1 and #1A in the ACC this year. Not anymore. It’s adapt or die time for Dabo.

Colorado – Sorry, Prime. I loved watching the Buffaloes shock the world in their debut on the big stage at TCU Saturday. I’m not ready to put them in the Top 25 (AP has them at #22, Coaches at #25). QB Shedeur Sanders answered any questions about whether he could make the jump from the FCS to FBS level. Same with DB/WR Travis Hunter, who might be the most dynamic two-way player since Charles Woodson won the Heisman in 1997. And to my surprise, their offensive line performed better than I expected when it came to protecting Sanders – though his ability to get the ball out quickly definitely helped. But I still think the Buffs will struggle in the trenches. They did not run the ball effectively at all (a putrid 1.6 ypc on 34 attempts). They get Nebraska this weekend, who I think will dominate them on both lines of scrimmage. Colorado may still prevail, just because Nebraska still finds a way to lose close games. But Colorado’s front lines and lack of depth just aren’t sustainable at the Power 5 level.

Be Patient

Ohio State – It definitely was not an ideal first start for QB Kyle McCord (20-33, 239 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT). The Buckeye offense was anemic overall against Indiana (4.6 ypc, 2-12 on 3rd Down). I don’t think Buckeye fans need worry. Opening with a road game against a Big Ten East opponent, even one as underwhelming as the Hoosiers, is not supposed to be a cakewalk. I think the offense will be fine. More importantly, the Buckeye defense was outstanding, allowing just 153 yards and 3 points. They get Youngstown State and Western Kentucky at home to fine tune the offense before a big trip to South Bend at the end of the month.

Rankings

Week 2 Picks

Notre Dame at NC State – Maybe the Wolfpack were holding back a bit in a mostly lackluster 24-14 win at UConn, but I kinda doubt it. They do know a thing or two about Irish QB Sam Hartman, and how to slow him down (picked him off 3 times in a 30-21 win over Wake Forest last season)I still think Notre Dame is too good, and can win comfortably on the ground if it comes to that – NCSU gave up 6.2 ypc to UConn. (ND -7.5)

Utah at Baylor – This could be a battle of backup QBs. Baylor suffered a shocking loss at home to Texas State last week. They were my dark horse to win the Big 12, and they still may be, but they will need to get their defense in order ASAP. Compounding matters is that QB Blake Shapen will miss this game due to an MCL injury. Utes QB Cam Rising may return, but that’s still an unknown as of this writing. I like the Bears to bounce back and at least cover at home.(Baylor +8)

Ole Miss at Tulane – I think Tulane can slow down Jaxon Dart, who completed 78% of his pass attempts with 4 TDs against Mercer. What I don’t think the Green Wave can stop well enough is RB Quinshon Judkins. I’m going with the Rebels. (Ole Miss -7)

Texas A&M at Miami – This is possibly a watershed game for two programs looking to bounce back from disappointing seasons last year. While both offenses are improved from last season, I think points will be hard to come by, just as they were in last season’s 17-9 A&M win. I think the Aggies win, but the Canes will cover. (Miami +4.5)

Oregon at Texas Tech – I think the Red Raiders will be pretty salty after a tough 2OT loss at Wyoming Saturday. I also don’t think we can read much of anything into Oregon’s 81-7 drubbing of Portland State, other than how badly outmatched their opponent was. The Ducks’ offense will be formidable, but Tech has a stout defense. More importantly, I need to see receipts before I’m ready to believe Oregon’s shaky defense from last season is appreciably better. Tech QB Tyler Shough will certainly want to show well against his former team too. (TT +6.5)

Texas at Alabama – Speaking of needing to see receipts….I’m done with the pundits “crying wolf” that the Longhorns are back. The Tide are 13-5-1 against the spread at home since 2020. I’m not sold on Tide QB Jalen Milroe as the long term solution, despite his solid outing against Middle Tennessee State (5 TDs scored, an efficient 13-18, 194 yards passing). He really struggled in his lone start last season against Texas A&M. Still, I’ll stick with history in his matchup. (Alabama -7)