College Football 2023 – Post Week 10/Week 11 Preview

Week 10 was billed as Statement Saturday. Outside of Alabama and Georgia I don’t know that anyone made any bold statements. The Crimson Tide and Bulldogs did show that they are once again the class of the SEC. Following their solid wins over LSU and Missouri, respectively, it is all but inevitable they will meet in Atlanta on Dec 2 for a de facto play-in game to the College Football Playoff (though Georgia might still have a path in if they were to lose to the Tide in the SEC Championship).

Beyond the SEC titans, only Washington and Texas played ranked opponents among teams who still have realistic playoff hopes. The Huskies won a shootout in which they actually ran the ball more than they threw it. They rushed for 316 yards despite being just the 117th-ranked rushing team entering the game. However, the opponent was USC, so can we really say the Huskies have a more balanced offense now? As for Texas, they narrowly escaped in overtime against Kansas State after blowing a 20 lead they held late in the 3rd Qtr. The Longhorns need to get QB Quinn Ewers back, and soon (he’s supposedly day-to-day at this point). His backup, Maalik Murphy, really struggled against KSU, throwing two picks plus a couple others that should have been picked. If Ewers can’t come back, maybe it’s finally time to unveil Arch Manning?

Michigan, Florida State, Oregon, Penn State and Louisville all got wins against lower-caliber opponents (Purdue, Pitt, Cal, Maryland and Virginia Tech, respectively). Aside from the Seminoles struggling badly in the first half, nothing in those games seemed particularly noteworthy. Ole Miss won a shootout against Texas A&M, though with Alabama’s win the Rebels’ path to winning the SEC West has all but vanished. Still, they go to Georgia this weekend and if they can pull off an improbable upset and go 11-1 with that on their resume, they can’t be ruled out.

We also lost some teams from the playoff hunt Saturday. Oklahoma not only saw its playoff hopes vanish in a 27-24 loss to Oklahoma State, but their hopes of even playing for the Big 12 title are now on very shaky ground. Plus they have to live with the fact that the Cowboys got the last word in the final edition of the Bedlam series, despite the fact the Sooners dominated them historically (91-20-7). As mentioned, LSU and Missouri were both dealt tough losses on the road against higher ranked opponents. As both now have two losses and are eliminated from winning their division, their playoff hopes are gone.

What The Playoff Field Would Look Like If This Were 2024 (via The Athletic)

 

So that’s where we stand. Now for a non-playoff topic.

The Michigan sign-stealing story seems to change and grow by the minute. So much so that I won’t try to keep up with the details here. But I do have some 30,000-foot thoughts on the matter.

• Say what you will about the rules, but they are the rules; and Michigan not only broke them, but they were blatant and sloppy about it and got caught. There needs to be consequences for that. What those should be, I don’t know, and I’m glad I don’t have to decide. But it must be more than simply dismissing Connor Stalions from his job.

• I find it completely implausible that Jim Harbaugh knew nothing about what was going on. No head coach is so disconnected from his sideline that he wouldn’t notice someone who is supposedly a recruiting analyst standing next to his coaches talking to them during a game while they are signaling plays and think, “This is normal.” Harbaugh knew what Stalions was doing at that time.

• What I do find plausible is that Harbaugh may not have known the full scope of what Stalions did as far as how he acquired the information to decipher the signals. Buying tickets for people to go to games and shoot video on their cell phone, and getting buddies from another team to let you stand on their sideline to watch their opponent is probably something you can get away with without the big boss knowing.

• Either way, what happened is a problem, and Harbaugh bears responsibility for it.

• I wish we could just have college players wear in-helmet communication devices like the NFL has for nearly three decades. That would ostensibly eliminate the need for hand signaling. What’s holding that back at the college level seems to mainly be that helmet manufacturers insist they are not liable for any safety issue with their product if third party devices are installed. The NFL has helmet language in the CBA with their players, so voiding the warranty doesn’t present an issue for them. But with literally hundreds of head injury lawsuits brought against the NCAA/conferences/schools over the past decade or so, they’re not going to leave any openings for more.

• Of course college football could always solve the problem by admitting what US labor laws and the courts have been hinting towards them for some time now – that the players, as the most critical components of their multi-billion dollar industry, are in fact employees and must be treated as such. Then you collectively bargain a mutually beneficial agreement with them that includes comm devices in helmets, just like the NFL. But I digress.

 

Rankings

(Again, this is who I think the 12 best teams are, in order, not how I think they will be seeded for the playoff)

 

Week 11 Picks

Michigan at Penn State (Noon ET, FOX, Line: Michigan -4.5)

Hey everyone, Michigan plays its first real game of the season! For all the snark directed at their schedule (and of course at the helping “hands” they’ve had) the Wolverines’ smallest margin of victory so far this season is 24 points. Only twice have they surrendered double-digit points, and even then it was just 10 and 13. They are doing what you are supposed to do to inferior opponents, even after Connor Stalions’s cover was blown. I’m not convinced that Penn State’s 51 point outburst at Maryland means they’ve discovered their offense – the Terps already retreated into their shells for the winter back in the 2nd Half at Ohio State. And with a noon kickoff, the Penn State crowd does not have much time to get fueled up to help the cause.

Pick: Michigan -4.5

Miami at Florida State (3:30pm ET, ABC, Line: Florida State -14.5)

Anything can happen in rivalry games, especially one with the sort of history this one has. Doesn’t matter. The Hurricanes’ Week 2 win over Texas A&M looks like it was fool’s gold. If Florida State already got a wake up call in the first half at Pitt last week. Maybe someone catches them sleepwalking again and blows their CFP hopes, but it’s not gonna happen against the guys with the U’s on their helmet.

Pick: Florida State – 14.5

Utah at Washington (3:30pm ET, FOX, Line: Washington -9.5)

Like Penn State at Maryland, Utah’s 55 point barrage against Arizona State last week shouldn’t be read much into, even though they’ll be going against a defense that surrendered 42 last week at USC. The Utes’ offense is still anemic, and the Huskies D will do better at home.

Pick: Washington -9.5

Ole Miss at Georgia (7pm ET, ESPN, Georgia -10.5)

The Costanza approach with Georgia did not work last week. I am now 1-5 picking the Bulldogs ATS this season. I give up. I just took two consecutive home favorites above, so I’ll just stick with that trend. That’s all I’ve got.

Pick: Georgia -10.5

USC at Oregon (10:30pm ET, FOX, Line: Oregon -16.5)

Not feeling making it four home favorites in a row. It sounds like whoever will be scheming and calling the Trojans’ defense Saturday is throwing out Alex Grinch’s playbook. That’s a good start. Still doesn’t change the fact they are too undersized up front to stop Oregon, but maybe with something unexpected they generate a turnover or two that keeps this close.

Pick: USC +16.5, Oregon S/U