College Football 2023 – Post Week 2/Week 3 Preview

Let’s dive straight in to my thoughts on several of Week Two’s biggest game and how they may impact the season.

Texas 34 – Alabama 24:

First, the Longhorns. Can we say Texas is back now? I believe we can. When you go to Tuscaloosa and walk out with a double-digit win, you are a team to be taken very seriously. The Longhorns held their own on both sides of the line of scrimmage against the Tide. Their defensive line was dominant, holding Alabama to 3.1 yards per carry against a talented opponent whose stated goal for the season was to run the ball more effectively. They also kept constant pressure on QB Jalen Milroe and had a part in forcing two crucial INTs that led to 10 Texas points. The Texas OL wasn’t great – they struggled to run the ball most of the game – but in the end when the ‘Horns wanted to eat clock they got the job done. They also gave QB Quinn Ewers just enough time to hit on several deep throws, always a key ingredient if you are going to beat Alabama.

At this point, all I really need to see from Texas is consistency. The eye test says they are the best team in the Big 12, but it’s not going to be easy. As they often do, Oklahoma should present a big challenge Oct 7 in Dallas. Kansas State will be a tough out. Despite 0-2 starts, I still believe Baylor and Texas Tech could be the source of headaches. But in my mind, the path has widened for the Longhorns to get to the Playoff. Really, as one of the sport’s blue bloods with all the inherent advantages you could imagine, the path has always been there for them – they just couldn’t get out of their own way. Looks like Steve Sarkisian has got them right.

As for Alabama, is the dynasty over? Sort of. The days where Alabama regularly dominates opponents week in and week out looks to be over. The days where they are a perennial Playoff contender are not. As an outside observer, it’s tough to gauge what’s happening under the hood. Nearly every talent evaluation service says they continue to consistently recruit better than anyone. It did seem like the Tide were hitting on nearly every single blue-chip player they got. Odds are not all of them are going to be future NFL drat picks, or even very good college players. Have the odds simply, finally, caught up with Alabama? Or are they not developing players as well as they used to. I think it’s possible the coaching may have slipped some. And I’m not pointing at Nick Saban here, rather his staff. Check out some of the names that were on the staff in 2015, which might have been peak Saban Alabama: Kirby Smart (DC), Lane Kiffin (OC), Mario Cristobal (OL), Mel Tucker (DB), Billy Napier (WR), Dan Lanning (Grad Assistant). All of them are now head coaches at Power 5 programs (yeah, probably not for long in Tucker’s case). Are there any future head coaches on the current staff? Time will tell, but you certainly don’t hear any names being thrown into the carousel. It’s not that the drop-off in coaching quality has been drastic, but it doesn’t take much when you are talking about the elite levels of college football.

Here’s a couple of numbers from the Texas game to ponder. 10 and 90. That’s the number of penalties Alabama had and the number of yards penalized, respectively. If you recall, penalties were a recurring problem for the Tide last season, in which they lost two games, very nearly lost several others, and did not win the SEC West or make the Playoff. I think now it’s obvious that even a process-oriented, stickler for details guy like Nick Saban cannot just fix this by waving a wand over his team. They will probably struggle at times against other elite opponents. Here’s the thing; outside of Georgia, who is not on Alabama’s regular season schedule, I’m not sure there are any elite teams in the SEC right now. LSU and Texas A&M were both dealt losses to ACC teams they were favored to beat. I’m not sure yet about Joe Milton and Tennessee (more on that later). Ole Miss looks interesting, but I need to see more. Right now, Alabama remains my favorite to win the SEC West.

Miami 48 – Texas A&M 33

Is 2023 the season where dormant powerhouse programs make their comeback? Florida State. Texas. And Miami? I’m not sure I want to put the Hurricanes in the same category with the first two just yet. This had all the feel of a very important game for both of these programs. We don’t know yet whether either team is going to end up being much better than the hugely disappointing 2022 versions that both went 5-7. But for that to happen, winning this game felt like a must.

Miami pulled this out in an unexpected way that sort of goes against Mario Cristobal’s DNA. As a former O-lineman, Cristobal has always leaned towards having an effective running game that sets up a lot of play-action passing. But not on this day. The ‘Canes ran the ball for just 77 yards on 24 attempts (3.2 ypc). They won this game by relying on a familiar name: QB Tyler Van Dyke. Aided by some terrible tackling in the Aggie secondary, Van Dyke slung it for 374 yards and 5 TDs. Defensively Miami struggled to slow down the passing game itself, but did get two crucial picks. As I said, Im not ready to put Miami back with the elite. They have tough conference matchups at North Carolina and Florida State, plus Clemson at home. But the thought of a Miami-Florida State matchup for the ACC Championship, and maybe a spot in the Playoff, sure sounds juicy.

As for Texas A&M….ugh. Right now I’m wondering less about whether they can knock off Alabama, LSU and Tennessee, and wondering more about whether they could lose to Auburn, Arkansas and Mississippi State. Much like Alabama and their penalties, I’m not sure the Aggies’ sloppy tackling is something that can be “cleaned up” during the course of a season. I haven’t snooped around the virtual world in College Station, but I have a hunch it’s not a pleasant place right now. After they get Louisiana-Monroe this weekend, the Aggies have what look like mostly winnable games, based on their talent, but games that are equally losable, based on their execution. What way they go from here remains to be seen.

Oregon 38 – Texas Tech 30

File this one under “It’s better to win ugly than….”

I never thought this would be easy for Oregon. Lubbock is a tough place to win. If fact, the Ducks are only the third non-conference opponent since 2000 to win there. I had the Red Raiders covering the 4.5 points they were getting, and even waffled on them winning outright (I picked Oregon to win in writing, but went with TT on the Sports Tonight podcast). I was that torn. So I’m not panicking that Oregon nearly, and easily could have lost that game – and only got a backdoor cover thanks to a Pick Six with 35 seconds remaining. But I’m no less concerned about their defense than I was last season. In a scene that was reminiscent of their meltdown against Oregon State last year, Tech seemingly ran the ball at will (174 yards, 5.4 yards per attempt). They Ducks were largely saved by a gutsy performance by QB Bo Nix, and winning the turnover battle, 4-0.

The Red Raiders suffered yet another heart-breaker after their Week 1 2OT loss at Wyoming. I was much more impressed with QB Tyler Shough this time (against his former team, no less). Tech was unlikely to be a CFP contender, so their ceiling of making the Big 12 title game is still in play. They just have to avoid the untimely mistakes that have plagued them so far. They’ll get on the winning side of the ledger this weekend against Tarleton St. Maybe that will help.

Rankings

Week 3 Quick Picks

#7 Penn State at Illinois (Noon ET, Fox, Line: Penn St -14.5)

This matchup was a wild one last year, with the Illini pulling one of the season’s biggest upsets in Happy Valley in 7 overtimes. I don’t think we’re in for any such upset this year. In fact, after seeing Illinois give up 34 points at Kansas last week, I think Penn State even covers the 14.5 points their laying this week. Pick: Penn State -15.5 and S/U

#14 LSU at Mississippi State (Noon ET, ESPN, Line: LSU -9.5)

That the Bulldogs needed overtime to defeat Arizona at home last week does not inspire me with confidence. And yet, my gut keeps telling me that this will be closer than many think it will be. The Tigers will win, but I like MSU to cover. Pick: Miss St +9.5, LSU S/U

#8 Washington at Michigan State (2pm ET, Peacock, Line: Washington -16)

This is an intriguing matchup, partially for the wrong reasons. Too bad you need a subscription streaming service to see it (get used to it, folks….all that money these schools are making off TV has to come from somewhere). Does the likelihood their head coach has worked his last game distract the Spartans, or do they unite and focus despite it all? Washington is still the better team, but 16 points seems like a wide spread for a team traveling 3/4 the length of the continent and playing a historically solid Big Ten program. Pick: Michigan St +16, Washington S/U

#11 Tennessee at Florida (4pm ET, ESPN, Line Tennessee -6.5)

Upset Alert! Despite the gaudy scores, Vols QB Joe Milton doesn’t seem to be hitting on the deep balls the way you’d expect from someone of his talent level. We’ll see if he can turn it up a notch against tougher competition, but historically The Swamp is not a place opposing QB’s go to get right. As for Florida, they can’t look any worse than they did in Utah a couple weeks ago. (Can they?) Pick: Florida +6.5 and S/U