College Football 2023 – Post Week 5/Week 6 Preview

Hard to believe Week 6 is already upon us, and some teams will have played half their regular season schedule when this weekend is over. So with that, I’ll take a quick stock of where things stand before previewing games.

Georgia remains the #1 team in the AP poll, but they seem much more vulnerable, on offense particularly, than they have in the previous two seasons. In each of their two conference games so far, against South Carolina and Auburn, the Bulldogs trailed in the 3rd Quarter and did not cover the spread. QB Carson Beck has been adequate, and stepped up when necessary, but it doesn’t seem like they are asking too much of him just yet. Their running game averages a very middling 4.4 yards per attempt. Their primary receiving weapon is TE Brock Bowers, a stud who completely took over the game in the 4th Quarter against Auburn, but not a guy who stresses defenses to cover the entire field. The Bulldogs lack explosive playmakers and are forced to score by methodically moving the ball downfield in 10 play drives. More plays = more opportunities for a mistake that can derail a drive. Also as they move into opposing territory the field shrinks, an advantage to the defense. Their defense is still elite, and as long as that is the case they remain a title contender; but come postseason, when the competition is tougher, their offense is going to have to pick it up.

All of that was to say, this season feels more wide open than any in recent history as far as who the true title contenders are.

Alabama has righted itself after the loss to Texas and the debacle at South Florida. Like Georgia, their strength is definitely on the defensive side of the ball. They blanked an Ole Miss squad in the second half that would go on to hang 55 points on LSU in its next game, and cruised to an easy victory against Mississippi State last weekend. I don’t think why’re out of the water though. They travel to Texas A&M Saturday, and that has the same sort of feel going in that other recent games have in which Alabama struggles, mostly due to self-inflicted mistakes.

The cannibalization of the Pac-12 appears well under way. First Washington State knocked Oregon State from the ranks of the unbeaten. Then it was the Beavers turn last Friday night, defeating then-#10 Utah. Obviously no conference is going to have a bunch of 12-0 teams left standing at the end of the regular season, as basic math tells us. What has been a problem in the past is that the Pac-12 has not had a team go 12-0 since Oregon in 2010. More problematic has been that since then only two teams have finished the season with just one loss, that being Oregon in 2014 and Washington in 2016. Not coincidentally, they were the only two teams from the Pac-12 to ever make the College Football Playoff. So while the Pac-12 appears to be outstanding this season, maybe the best in the country, can anyone get through that gauntlet with one loss or less? Oregon, Washington and USC look like the best bets, but each of them has a meat-grinder of a schedule they have to get through first, including the three of them playing each other. Is the Pac-12 good enough that a 2-loss champion could crash the CFP 1-loss maximum glass ceiling? While I’d say the chance is non-zero, I think it’s highly unlikely. Someone is going to have to survive this West Coast Hunger Games if the Pac-12 is to make the playoff in its last season.

Rankings

 

My 4 Playoff Teams

1. Georgia, 2. Texas, 3. Michigan, 4. Florida State

My 12-Team Playoff Field w/1st Round Matchups

1. Georgia (bye)
2. Texas (bye)
3. Michigan (bye)
4. Florida State (bye)
5. Washington vs 12. Fresno State
6. Ohio State vs 11. Miami
7. Penn State vs 10. Notre Dame
8. Oregon vs 9. USC

Week 6 Picks

Oklahoma vs. Texas – at Dallas (Noon ET, ABC, Line: Texas -6.5)

This feels like the first of two meetings these teams will have, the Big 12 Championship Game being the next. If that’s the case, it has to be the worst nightmare for the rest of the conference to see the SEC departees dominate the narrative on their way out the door. This rivalry has historically featured close games. Both of these offenses are explosive. I trust Texas’ defense more than Oklahoma’s, and the Longhorns schedule this far has them more battle-tested. I think they’ll prevail, but it’ll be close.

Pick: Oklahoma +6.5, Texas S/U

Maryland at Ohio State (Noon ET, FOX, Line: Ohio State -19.5)

I think a strong case can be made that Maryland is the 4th best team in the Big Ten this season. The question is how far behind the Top 3 are they? They kept it very close against the Buckeyes last season, and I think the personnel are there to do it again. The question for the Terps has always been about execution and not letting the game get away from them if they fall behind. I think they’ll keep it just close enough to cover.

Pick: Maryland +19.5, OSU S/U

LSU at Missouri (Noon ET, ESPN, Line: LSU -5.5)

I don’t like what I’ve seen from LSU’s defense this season. And Mizzou’s Brady Cook – Luther Burden combo could give them fits. The Tigers’ (Missouri, that is) just needs to slow down Jayden Daniels and Co enough to give themselves a chance. I think they will.

Pick: Missouri +5.5, LSU S/U

Alabama at Texas A&M (3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Alabama -2.5)

As I mentioned above, this is the kind of game where Alabama has really struggled the last couple seasons – on the road in a hostile environment against a talented, but lesser team – and the Tide themselves were usually to blame for those struggles. The difference was before they had Bryce Young, who often – though not always – bailed them out. Jalen Milroe isn’t that type of QB, especially against a very good Aggie defense. On the other hand, Alabama’s defense has mostly been excellent, and I’m not sure Max Johnson can pull a Quinn Ewers act against them. So expect a tight, low scoring game that might come down to a last-second FG. By the way, the last time these teams met in College Station, that’s exactly how it ended. I’ll bet on the repeat.

Pick: Texas A&M +2.5 and S/U

Kentucky at Georgia (7pm ET, ESPN, Line: Georgia -14.5)

The Bulldogs are winless against the spread this season (0-4-1). Kentucky play a style that should be able to go on the road and keep it just close enough to cover against a middling offense.

Pick: Kentucky +14.5, Georgia S/U

Notre Dame at Louisville (7:30pm ET, ABC, Line: Notre Dame -6.5)

Louisville feels like this year’s version of 2022 Syracuse, who raced out to a 6-0 start – and #18 ranking – against a mostly light schedule before losing 5 of their last 6 when the opponents got tougher. One of the teams that brought the Orange back to reality was Notre Dame. I think the Irish will do the same to the Cardinals this year.

Pick: Notre Dame -6.5 and S/U