College Football 2023 – Post Week 8/Week 9 Preview

The pecking order in the Big Ten remains status quo after Week 8. Going in, it felt like this was the year that Penn State could finally break through that ceiling and join Ohio State and Michigan in the pantheon of the elite, even if only for this season. Nope. The game was the defensive slugfest we all expected, but Ohio State’s offense made the plays that had to be made, with WR Marvin Harrison Jr the usual suspect, while the Nittany Lions’ offense floundered all day.

Honestly, despite how close as the score was it felt like the Buckeyes were always in control, except for one brief moment. Midway through the 2nd Qtr with the score tied 3-3 and Ohio State on the precipice of the red zone, Lions LB Curtis Jacobs got a strip sack of Kyle McCord then picked the ball up for an apparent scoop-and-score. It felt like the kind of momentum swing that changes a game. It was. Twice. A defensive holding call (it was legitimate) wiped the play out and handed the ball right back to OSU, and the Buckeyes would find pay dirt five plays later and assume a lead they’d never relinquish.

So after all that, the Buckeyes still are who we thought they were; the perennial conference champion and CFP contender. Only a trip to Ann Arbor at the end of November appears to stand in their way at this point.

The bigger story, to me, is Penn State. I’m sure many of the PSU faithful will tell me I’m late to the party here, but this just seemed like the right opportunity to address it. With 9+ seasons of evidence in the books, I think we can say Penn State has hit their hard ceiling under James Franklin. They sit in a Big Ten tier all unto themselves – firmly above programs like Michigan State, Maryland, and anyone you want to name in the West Division – but also below Ohio State and, now that they broke through their own ceiling under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan. And while the expanded CFP starting next year might offer a ray of hope for more meaningful postseason games, they will also have to begin competing with the likes of Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA for one of those extra tournament spots. Can they beat that group out often enough?

Certainly Penn State does not appear to lack inherent advantages that many blue blood programs have at their disposal. The commitments from the administration, boosters and rank-and-file fans are there. Pennsylvania isn’t Florida or Texas in terms of recruiting soil, but the commonwealth still produces a lot of talent. Plus the Lions still pluck elite talent out of nearby states like Maryland and New Jersey. Yet they still get out-recruited by their neighbor to the West. Consider this; the Buckeyes’ starting QB (McCord) and top two receivers on Saturday (Harrison Jr and Julian Fleming) are all from Pennsylvania. How do you let that happen if you are James Franklin?

To be clear, Franklin isn’t going anywhere soon. He signed a new contract two years ago in which he would be owed $64M if he were let go right after this season, and $56M in 2024. And in his previous 9 seasons he’s had four 11-win campaigns, and should hit double-digit wins again this year. While that might not be quite the mountain top the fan base would like, that’s still a high bar that I’d wager PSU would be hard-pressed to clear with a replacement. So it seems the Happy Valley faithful will need to enjoy the view from one floor below the penthouse, hope they can hold their own with the newbies from out West, and claim one of the expanded CFP bids, all with James Franklin patrolling the sideline.

A Few Other Quick Hits

It’s starting to look like the Lincoln Riley era at USC is all sizzle, no steak. If they don’t get tougher in the trenches, they are going to have an ugly introduction to the Big Ten next year.

Oklahoma, Texas and Washington all nearly fell to non-winning teams, with the Sooners and Huskies barely escaping on their home field. You just never know.

Nick Saban needs to break out his halftime speeches before the game begins. The Tide have trailed at the half in 3 of their last 5 games and have come back to win while allowing just 6 points combined in the 2nd Half of those games.

It felt like whoever lost the Clemson-Miami game to drop to 4-3 was going to really have a rough week. That ended up being Clemson. Not only have the Tigers been long-eliminated from playoff contention, but based on what we’ve seen a 7-5 season would not come as a surprise. How long is Dabo Swinney willing to stick with his intransigence on adapting to a changing landscape? Maybe the question should be, how long is Clemson willing to tolerate it?

I’m sticking with Texas as my 4th playoff team, but that’s largely dependent upon Quinn Ewers returning from a sprained shoulder in time for their Nov 4 matchup with Kansas State. But don’t get excited for the start of the Arch Manning era yet. Maalik Murphy, who came in and led the Longhorns to a comeback win at Houston last week, will get the nod at QB for now.

For you Pac-12 After Dark night owls, keep an eye on #11 Oregon State traveling to Arizona. The Wildcats nearly knocked off USC in LA, and then went to Pullman and destroyed then-ranked Washington State 44-6. They stumbled on to a nice find in QB Noah Fifita. The Beavers have a solid defense, but they allow 2.5 yards per play more on the road than Corvallis.

My Four-Team Playoff if the season ended today

1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Oklahoma 4. Washington

My Predicted Four Team Playoff

1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Florida State 4. Texas

If the 12-Team Playoff Started This Season

1. Georgia (bye)
2. Michigan (bye)
3. Florida State (bye)
4. Texas (bye)
5. Ohio State vs 12. Air Force
6. Oklahoma vs 11. Notre Dame
7. Oregon vs 10. Penn State
8. Alabama vs 9. Washington

 

Rankings

Georgia vs Florida (3:30 ET, CBS, Line: Georgia -14.5)

Georgia’s first game of what may be the post-Brock Bowers era comes against their border rival. QB Carson Beck will have to spread the ball around more. He’s the 6th-most accurate QBs in FBS this season, completing 73.6% of his attempts. But the offense lacks in explosiveness, and that is certainly not helped with Bowers’ absence. Interestingly, Beck is not the most accurate QB in this game. That would be Florida’s Graham Mertz (completing 76.2%, 3rd in FBS). The similarities on offense seem likely to cancel each other out, meaning the difference in this game will be the defense – and that edge definitely goes to Georgia. Though as rivalry games often are, I think it will end up closer than what the numbers say.

Pick: Florida +14.5, Georgia S/U

Oregon at Utah (3:30pm ET, FOX, Line: Oregon -6.5)

I’m not buying Utah’s back-to-back 34 point scoring outbursts against Cal and USC as evidence they’ve found an offense. Cal gave up 59 and 52 points to Washington and Oregon State, respectively. And everyone scores on USC. Everyone. Plus, the Utes offense is almost entirely predicated on being able to run the ball, while Oregon’s defense only gives up 95 yards per game rushing. Yes, the Ducks haven’t faced a good running team yet. But I’m not sure the Utes can win against a Top 10 team with just ground-and pound. They do happen to feature the best defense Oregon has faced thus far this season. And they’re playing in Salt Lake, where the Utes haven’t lost since 2018. So you know what? Upset Special.

Pick: Utah +6.5, Utah S/U

Duke at Louisville (3:30pm ET, ESPN, Line: Louisville -4.5)

Duke QB Riley Leonard came back at Florida State last week from an ankle sprain he’d suffered 3 weeks earlier. He may not have been read, as he largely struggled before re-injuring the ankle in the 4th Quarter. He’s listed as day-to-day, but I think Duke will be more conservative this week and give him more time to heal. Without him, I’m not sure I like Duke’s chances against a Louisville squad that has had an extra week to prepare while and is anxious to erase the memory of a bad loss at Pitt that ended their unbeaten status.

Pick: Louisville -4.5 and S/U

Ohio State at Wisconsin (7:30pm ET, NBC, Line: Ohio St -14.5)

Maybe the Buckeyes are primed for a letdown after the big win last week, but I’m not seeing it. Despite the new offense and upgrade at QB, the Badgers are still relatively one-dimensional on offense and do most of their work on the ground. That didn’t go well for Penn State. Offensively I expect the Buckeyes to do work on the ground themselves, especially with RB Treyveon Henderson set to return. Maybe this game is closer than the oddsmakers expect, but my instinct says no.

Pick: Ohio State -14.5 and S/U