College Football 2023 – Post Week 9/Week 10 Preview

The speculation is over. We now know what the CFP selection committee thinks of the 25 best teams. So without further ado, here are the first set of rankings for the 2023 season.

So what do you think? I know what I think.

I’m not surprised Ohio State starts out #1, even though neither of the major polls have ranked them at the top at any point this season. No team in the country has a better pair of wins than the Buckeye’s victories over #11 Penn State and #15 Notre Dame.

Remember, these rankings are not predictive. Rather they are a snapshot of what your resume is at this point in time. Care to guess who was #1 in the first rankings last season? (Hint: Hum a few bars of Ol’ Rocky Top and you’ll probably get it). All that is to say a lot can and will change over the next month. Still, starting at the pole position is a nice place to be.

Right now, I think every team from #1 through #14 (LSU) has a viable path to the playoff. Obviously the farther down you are, the narrower that path becomes.

I thought Texas might have been a spot higher based on having arguably the best single win of any team so far; a 10-point victory over #8 Alabama at Tuscaloosa. Just as interesting is that Oklahoma sits two spots below Texas despite the head-to-head win three weeks ago. Perhaps there is some recency bias, but Oklahoma’s loss at #21 Kansas last Saturday must have left a bad impression with the committee. Either way, whether Texas, Oklahoma, or someone else emerges as the Big 12 champion, that team may now need some help to crack the Top 4.

While I would have been fine with Texas at #6, I’m good with Oregon being there too as the top-ranked 1-loss teams. Again, recency bias may be at play here, but it is hard to argue after the way they manhandled Utah in Salt Lake City (not an easy task no matter how banged up the Utes are), that they aren’t one of the most complete and physical teams in the country. That they are ranked right behind Washington is to be expected based on how close their game was.

I would wager that in the eyes of the eyes of the committee they don’t see a big difference between the 6-9 spots (Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma).

Looking further down the list….

Six ranked teams would appear to be an indication that like many followers of college football, the committee thinks the Pac-12 is pretty strong this season. What might have been for #16 Oregon State had they not blown that game at Arizona last week….especially losing by just 3 points when they ran that very ill-advised fake FG attempt right before halftime.

Interesting seeing Oklahoma State check in at #22 despite having not been ranked in either major poll at any point this season. I’m sure many, myself included, wrote them off after consecutive losses to South Alabama (by 26 points!) and Iowa State. Yet the Cowboys have been playing good football of late and are among the 5-team logjam at the top of the Big 12 standings.

There will be a de facto semifinal in the Big 12 this week when Kansas State travels to Texas and Oklahoma visits Oklahoma State in what may be the last Bedlam game in a very long time. Iowa State is the fifth team sitting at 4-1 in conference play, but I don’t expect them to stay in the mix. For my money, it will still be Texas and Oklahoma left standing in Arlington Dec 2.

For now it looks like Tulane and Air Force will battle it out for the G5 New Year’s Bowl spot. The Green Wave hold a one-spot edge over the Flacons, despite having a loss vs Air Force’s unblemished record. But since that loss came against #10 Ole Miss, it’s not hard to see why Tulane has the edge.

What my Playoff rankings would look like (Top 12)

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Michigan
4. Washington
5. Florida State
6. Oklahoma
7. Texas
8. Oregon
9. Alabama
10. Ole Miss
11. Missouri
12. Penn State

What I think the final Playoff rankings will look like (Top 12)

1. Michigan
2. Georgia
3. Florida State
4. Oregon
5. Texas
6. Ohio State
7. Washington
8. LSU
9. Alabama
10. Ole Miss
11. Oklahoma
12. Penn State

Rankings

(not to be conflated with playoff rankings, these are less resume-based)

Week 10 Picks

#23 Kansas State at #7 Texas (Noon ET, FOX, Line: Texas -4)

Maalik Murphy gets another start for the Longhorns while Quinn Ewers recovers from a shoulder injury. Murphy was decent in his first start last week against BYU, but the Wildcats will be a tougher test. The Longhorn defense needs to help him out, and they’re good enough to do just that. I think Texas can win this by a TD.

Pick: Texas -4 and S/U

#12 Missouri at #2 Georgia (3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Georgia -14.5

I’m fed up with trying to pick what the Bulldogs will do against the spread this season. I am 1-4 in picking their games. So it’s time for the George Costanza approach – decide what I think will happen, then pick the opposite to actually happen. So with that, this line feels two points too high, especially for a Bulldog team that is 3-5 ATS this season, and the Tigers should be able to keep it within two touchdowns. So I’ll take Mis…errrr…gimme Georgia!

Pick: Georgia -15.5 and S/U

#5 Washington at #20 USC (7:30pm ET, ABC, Line: Washington -3)

Make sure all the LED bulbs in the Coliseum are replaced and ready to go, because this game is going to feature a lot of scoring. I know it. You know it. Vegas knows it (O/U is at 76.5). The Trojans last two games have been decided by a total of three points, and were decided by a FG as time expired (loss to Utah) and a failed two-point conversion attempt (win at Cal). I think this game plays out similarly, so much so that while I’d flip a coin over who actually wins, I think USC covers 3 win or lose. It all depends on who has the ball last. [flips coin] I think the Huskies save their undefeated season as the clock hits zeroes.

Pick: USC +3, Washington S/U

#14 LSU at #8 Alabama (7:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Alabama -3.0)

The game of the week features the country’s #1 offense in nearly every major category (points per game, yards per game, yards per play) LSU, led by QB Jayden Daniels, who I don’t think gets enough mention as a Heisman candidate. Going up against a Top 20 defense on the road in prime time could be just the stage he needs to catapult his campaign. The Tide defense has saved their season when trailing at halftime in three of their last five games by clamping down on opposing offenses, allowing a total of just 6 points in the 2nd Half of those games. But LSU is a different beast. Offensively the Tide must avoid turnovers, penalties, and negative plays. All of those have been their undoing in losses or games that should not have been as close as they were. If they can play a clean game offensively, we know the LSU defense can be scored on. I think it’s their only chance.

Pick: LSU +3 and S/U