College Football 2024 – Conference Championship Week Overview

After another Saturday of chaos, the Conference Championship Games are upon us.

Before we preview those games, let’s review where we were entering yesterday, and go over the Week 14 results.

This past Tuesday the College Football Playoff Selection Committee released their most recent rankings.

Their Top 12 was:

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson

Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Arizona State

Week 14 Quick Hits

Oregon 49 Washington 21 – The Ducks finished 9-0 in their first regular season in the Big Ten (12-0 overall).  The Huskies finished 4-5 in league play, 6-6 overall. Oregon had 226 rushing yards, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt.  Washington was held to 43 yards on the ground. The Ducks had 10 sacks.

Michigan 13 Ohio State 10 – The Ohio State University suffered a 4th consecutive loss to their neighbors to the North. If OSU won this game at home against a pretty mediocre Wolverines team, they are in the Big Ten Championship game, and a lock for the College Football Playoff.  Michigan all year showed to have a quality defense, particular their Front 7, some running ability, and a very suspect passing offense. It’s understood this is a huge rivalry, and that OSU was going to get Michigan’s best shot; but I’m pretty amazed that Ohio State couldn’t find two touchdowns. Michigan QB Davis Warren had 16 passing attempts for 62 yards. They operated liked a service academy. Ground and pound, and were able to out physical the Buckeyes. With emotions running high after the game, the Michigan players attempted to plant their flag at midfield. OSU players were understandably offended and wanted to fight. While understanding the sentiment, throwing punches there, wasn’t going to erase getting beat up by your undermanned rival on your homefield.  I’m wondering how OSU Head Coach Ryan Day is being perceived in Columbus.

Texas 17 Texas A&M 7 – Nice win for the Longhorns against the Aggies. A&M is a talented team, and their fans loathe UT.   Texas had a 17-0 halftime lead, and didn’t look back. 243 yards rushing for Texas. Texas outgained A&M 461 yards to 248. Texas held the ball for nearly 35 minutes.  Texas is 11-1 overall, and finished their first regular season in the SEC with a 7-1 conference record.

Penn State 44 Maryland 7 – Terps grabbed the early 7-0 lead, and then were outscored 44-0 to end the game.  With Ohio State losing, Penn State will now face Oregon in the Big Ten Championship.

Notre Dame 49 USC 35 – This game was tied at halftime, and at 21-21 in the 3rd; before Notre Dame pulled away. Two Pick 6’s for the Irish Defense, one for 99 yards, the other for 100. Pretty strong fight from the Trojans. They outgained Notre Dame 557 yards to 438.  Notre Dame was able to do enough to win, and punch their ticket to the CFP.

Syracuse 42 Miami 38 – The Hurricanes go down in Western New York. The Orange had a nice year, 9-3 overall, 5-3 in the ACC; and they deserve credit for their win. (Kyle McCord, 380 yards, 3 TD’s.) Still, a disappointing result for Miami. Win here, and their in the ACC Championship Game, and likely in the CFP win or lose in ACC Championship. With the loss; they are out of the ACC Championship, and we will see about the CFP. Miami had a number of games earlier in the year where they won where they could have lost (Virginia Tech, California, Louisville); so maybe losing here is just law of averages. Impactful loss here not just for Miami, but the ACC as a whole, which we will discuss below.

Georgia 44 Georgia Tech 42 – The Bulldogs win in 8OT!  Georgia was down 27-13 with 5;37 left in the 4th Quarter. Georgia Tech had a solid year, 7-5 overall, 5-3 in the ACC. This was Year 3 for their Head Coach Brent Key. Georgia has been the big bully in College Football for several years. These campuses are separated by 70 miles. You know it has to be incredibly hard for the GT program living in Georgia’s shadow, and how important this game was for them. They didn’t win, but they had to have earned some respect.  Georgia wins, and moves on to the SEC Championship. Amazing how different the whole landscape looks if Georgia wasn’t able to complete their comeback.

Tennessee 36 Vanderbilt 23 – Tennessee finishes their regular season 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. They’ll be in the CFP.  Dylan Simpson with another 178 yards rushing, 4 TD’s for Nico Iamaleava.

SMU 38 California 6 – SMU was in the WAC until 2004. Conference USA from 2005-12, and then the American Athletic Conference from 2013-23. They just went 11-1 this regular season, 8-0 in ACC play, and will play for the ACC Championship. Quite the run for the program.

Indiana 66 Purdue 0 – Coming off the loss to Ohio State, Indiana was determined to put on a show against a bad Purdue team, and they did. 586 total yards for Indiana to just 67 for Purdue! 30 1st downs to just 5 for Purdue.

Boise State 34 Oregon State 18 – The Broncos finish their regular season 11-1 overall, 6-0 at home. 226 yards rushing for Ashton Jeanty, who now has 2,288 yards rushing on the year with 28 TD’s. This was his 5th game this year with over 200 yards. Boise State’s lone loss on the year was their 3 point defeat (37-34) at Oregon.

South Carolina 17 Clemson 14 – This might have been a de facto playoff game, and the Gamecocks win with a 10-0 4th Quarters against their in-state rival. All of the stats were largely equal.  South Carolina actually had more penalties, and an additional turnover. LaNorris Sellers 164 yards passing, and 166 yards rushing. This was a 6th straight win for South Carolina, their last loss being a 2 point game at Alabama.

Other Scores Of Note

Alabama 28 Auburn 14 – The Crimson Tide were 12 of 18 on 3rd down in the Iron Bowl. They held the ball for 36 minutes. Just 1 sack for the ‘Bama defense. Alabama had 4 turnovers. Alabama is 9-3 overall, 5-3 in the SEC. Their losses @ Vanderbilt, @ Tennessee, @ Oklahoma.

Ole Miss 26 Mississippi State 14 –  Mississippi State led 14-10 in the Egg Bowl, before being outscored 16-0 the rest of the way. Ole Miss was 8 of 18 on 3rd down. Jaxon Dart was off, 14 of 24, 143 yards. He did have 77 yards rushing. Ole Miss is 9-3 overall, 5-3 in the SEC.  Their losses Kentucky, @ LSU, @ Florida.

Arizona State 49 Arizona 7 – The Sun Devils put it on the Wildcats, and finished their regular season 10-2 overall, 7-2 in their first year of Big 12 Conference Play. Arizona State was projected to finish last in the Big 12, and they end up in a four way tie for 1st.

After Week 14, ESPN is Projecting the Committee’s Updated Top 12 as:

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Miami
12. Alabama

Ole Miss, South Carolina, Arizona State

Based on the rankings above, the seeding will be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 3 SMU (ACC champ)
No. 4 Boise State (Mountain West champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 20 and 21

No. 12 Arizona State (Big 12 champ) at No. 5 Penn State
No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State

We will see what the official rankings are, but some thoughts on the ESPN projection:

• I don’t like having Miami 11th after their Syracuse loss. As we said above, they had a number of other games they could have loss. They got credit for finding ways to win those games, but evaluating them as a whole; I’m not sure they belong. If they were facing Alabama, Ole Miss, or South Carolina on a neutral field; are they favored in any of those games? If the projection is right, the ACC could still get two teams into the CFP. (Championship Game winner + Miami.)
• I think Ohio State is definitely one of the 12 best teams, but also think there is an argument for them dropping farther than 2 to 6 after the Michigan loss.
• Indiana is in good position, and seems solidly in.
• The Big Ten Championship is solely about seeding.
• Alabama will be rooting against SMU, and hoping the Selection Committee views them favorably with Miami.
• Current projection here has 4 Big Ten Teams, 3 SEC teams, 2 ACC teams, Notre Dame, 1 Mountain West team, 1 Big 12 team making the CFP.

 

Conference Championship Games

All percentages mentioned below, come from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

December 6th

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State ( Conference USA ) – These teams playing for a second straight week, with WKU winning 19-17 at home yesterday. Jacksonville State is a 64.2% favorite in the rematch.

UNLV at Boise State ( Mountain West ) – Boise State won 29-24 at UNLV October 26th. Pretty competitive game, with the Broncos going 3 of 15 on 3rd down. The Broncos are 68.6% favorites in the rematch.

Tulane at Army ( American ) – Tulane is 9-3 overall, 7-1 in the American. Their losses are to Kansas State, @ Oklahoma, and yesterday vs. Memphis. The Green Wave is a 66.6% favorite vs. Army (10-1, 8-0).

December 7th

Iowa State vs Arizona State  ( Big 12 ) –  Big 12 Championship in Dallas. These teams are both 10-2 overall, 7-2 in league play.  Arizona State’s two losses were @ Texas Tech, and @ Cincinnati.  Iowa State’s two losses were at Kansas, and Texas Tech.  Iowa State is a 55.2% favorite.

Ohio vs Miami of Ohio ( Mid-American ) – The Miami Redhawks are 8-4 overall, 7-1 in the MAC. They beat Ohio 30-20 Oct. 19th at home. Miami was up 30-6, before Ohio scored twice in the 4th Quarter. Ohio finished 9-3 overall, 7-1 in the MAC. Miami has won their last 7. Ohio has won their last 5. Miami is a 55.3% favorite here.

Georgia vs. Texas ( SEC ) – The SEC Championship in Atlanta.  The lone loss for Texas this year was 30-15 to Georgia at home October 19th. The Longhorns are a 61.5% favorite vs. Georgia in the rematch. In that October game, Texas was just 2 of 15 on 3rd down, and both teams finished with under 300 yards.  Georgia had 3 turnovers, while Texas had 4.

Marshall at Louisiana ( Sun Belt ) –  The Thundering Herd (9-3 overall, 7-1 in the Sun Belt) at Louisiana (10-2 overall, 7-1 in the Sun Belt). Marshall has won their last 6 games, and 8 of 9. Louisiana has won their last 2, and also 8 of their last 9.

Penn State vs Oregon ( Big Ten ) – The Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis.  Oregon is undefeated overall, and in league play. The Match-Up Predictor sees Penn State as the slight favorite, giving them a 51% chance to win vs. the Ducks.

Clemson vs SMU ( ACC ) – The ACC Championship in Charlotte.  Clemson is 9-3 overall after losing to South Carolina, and 7-1 in league play. The Tigers can still make the CFP if they beat SMU. SMU is a 53.6% favorite to win.