College Football 2024 – Week 13 Overview

This past Tuesday the College Football Playoff Selection Committee released their most recent rankings.

Their Top 12 was:

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. BYU
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia

Boise State was 13th, but would have been in the CFP as the 5th highest rated conference champion.

Let’s review how those teams faired in Week 12, and preview Week 13.

All percentages mentioned below, come from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 12 Quick Hits

Oregon 16 Wisconsin 13 – The Ducks needed a 10-0 4th Quarter for the win at Camp Randall. Oregon is an 88.1% favorite in their regular season final vs. Washington.

Ohio State 31 Northwestern 7 – The Buckeyes got the win at Wrigley Field. Two regular season games left for Ohio State – at home this week vs. #5 Indiana (OSU is a 73.2% favorite), and at home vs. Michigan (OSU is a 92.9% favorite).

Texas 20 Arkansas 10 – Texas moves to 9-1 overall, 5-1 in the SEC with the road W at Arkansas.  The Razorbacks were limited to 231 total yards. Remaining regular season schedule for Texas is Kentucky at home, and at Texas A&M.  Texas is a 94.7% favorite vs. the Wildcats, and a 77.5% favorite vs. the Aggies.

Penn State 49 Purdue 10 – Drew Allar, 17 of 19 with 3 TD’s. Penn State with 234 yards rushing. Two remaining regular season games for Penn State – at Minnesota, and home vs. Maryland. The Nittany Lions are a 75.1% favorite vs. Minnesota, and a 92.8% favorite vs. the Terps.

Indiana – Had a bye yesterday.  At Ohio State, and Purdue are the remaining regular season games.  They’re a 97.8% favorite vs. the Boilermakers.

Kansas 17 BYU 13 – The Cougars fell to 9-1 overall, 6-1 in the Big 12 with a costly loss to the Jayhawks. Two remaining regular season games for BYU – at Arizona, and home vs. Houston. The Cougars are a underdog against the Wildcats (given a 44.2% chance of winning) and are a 86.5% favorite vs. Houston.

Georgia 31 Tennessee 17 – Georgia improved to 8-2 overall, 6-2 in the SEC.  The Volunteers fell to 8-2 overall, and 5-2 in the SEC. Carson Beck had one of his better games of the year for the Bulldogs. The Georgia defense came up with 5 sacks. Georgia’s remaining regular season schedule is at UMass this week, and a rivalry game vs. Georgia Tech. Against the Yellow Jackets, Georgia is a 89.6% favorite.  The Volunteers have UTEP at home, and at Vanderbilt left on their regular season slate.  Against Vanderbilt, Tennessee is a 77.8% favorite.

Notre Dame 35 Virginia 14 – The Fighting Irish are 9-1 overall. They have #24 Army this weekend, are a 87.6% favorite vs. the Cadets and finish their regular season at USC where they’re a 67.2% favorite.

Miami – Had a bye yesterday.  Two regular season games left for the Hurricanes. Vs. Wake Forest, and at Syracuse. Against the Demon Deacons, Miami is a 95.7% favorite.  Against the Orange, Miami is a 81.5% favorite.

Alabama 52 Mercer 7 – The Crimson Tide are 8-2 overall, 4-2 in the SEC.  At Oklahoma and home vs. rival Auburn ends Alabama’s regular season. Against the Sooners, Bama is a 81.6% favorite. Vs. the Tigers, Alabama is a 91% favorite.

Ole Miss – Had a bye yesterday. Two regular season games left for the Rebels. At Florida, and home vs. Mississippi State.  Vs. the Gators, the Rebels are a 77.8% favorite.  Vs. their in-state rival, the Rebels are a 94.8% favorite.

Boise State 42 San Jose State 21 – The Broncos are 9-1 overall, and 6-0 in the Mountain West. They could be the biggest benefactor from BYU’s loss, as they could now be in-line for a 1st round bye in the CFP. Boise State’s remaining regular season schedule is at Wyoming, and home vs. Oregon State.  Against Wyoming, BSU is a 94.7% favorite, and against the Beavers, BSU is a 93.1% favorite.

After Week 12, ESPN is Projecting the Committee’s Updated Top 12 as:

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Notre Dame
7. Miami
8. Alabama
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia
11. Tennessee
12. Boise State

(BYU, SMU, Texas A&M, Colorado)

We will see what the official rankings are, but some thoughts on the ESPN projection:

• As long as Indiana doesn’t get rocked by Ohio State this weekend, the Big Ten seems to be in great position to get 4 teams in.
• If Miami wins out in the regular season, and wins the ACC Conference Championship Game; then the Hurricanes figure to get first round bye in the CFP. If Miami loses to SMU, or Clemson in the ACC Conference Championship Game; then it’s possible that not only is the ACC a 1 bid league, but that the ACC winner doesn’t get a first round bye in the CFP.
• The projection here has 5 SEC teams in the CFP, with A&M knocking on the door. Right now, Texas and A&M both have 1 conference loss, while Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss each have two. Four SEC bids seems like a lock. 5 is possible.
• How do things shake out overall if A&M were to beat Texas in a close game, and Ohio State happened to blow out Indiana, or Notre Dame had a surprise loss at USC?
• ESPN’s projection here has BYU #13, and Colorado #16, but the Big 12 Championship Game winner will be in. With this projection, the Big 12 winner would be the 12th seed overall, and facing the Buckeyes at Ohio State. Note here that while OSU is projected as 2nd in the Top 12, they’d be the 5th seed in the CFP, behind four Conference Champions.
• In the Big 12, BYU and Colorado are both 6-1 in league play. Arizona State and Iowa State are both 5-2. We mentioned BYU’s remaining schedule above. Colorado has Kansas (the Buffaloes are a 54.4% favorite) and Oklahoma State (the Buffaloes are a 82.9% favorite).

Week 13 Games Of Note

Indiana at Ohio State – #5 at #2.  It’s been a dream year for the Hoosiers. I don’t think they have to beat the Buckeyes to get into the CFP. I just think they have to keep the game close.

Ole Miss at Florida – The Gators have been playing better in recent weeks, and beat LSU yesterday.

SMU at Virginia – The Mustangs are given a 78.2% chance of winning here.  Boston College gave them a game yesterday.

Kentucky at Texas – It’s hard to imagine Kentucky winning here, but they did beat Ole Miss, and have the 1 point loss to Georgia, and a 10 point loss to Tennessee.  If you are the Longhorns, you want to end this game quickly and not give the Wildcats reason to believe.

Penn State at Minnesota – The Golden Gophers are given a 24.9% chance of pulling the upset.

BYU at Arizona State – The Sun Devils are favored at home.

Colorado at Kansas –  The Jayhawks are given a 45.6% chance of pulling the upset.  They’ve beat BYU, and Iowa State the last two weeks.

Army at Notre Dame – The Cadets are going to be in the AAC Championship Game. They’re undefeated. They’re a huge underdog vs. the Fighting Irish.