College Football 2024 – Week 14 Overview

This past Tuesday the College Football Playoff Selection Committee released their most recent rankings.

Their Top 12 was:

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Notre Dame
7. Alabama
8. Miami
9. Mississippi
10. Georgia
11. Tennessee
12. Boise State

Let’s review how those teams faired in Week 13, and preview Week 14.

All percentages mentioned below, come from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 13 Quick Hits

Oregon – Was off yesterday.

Ohio State 38 Indiana 15 – The Hoosiers started the game with a score, converting multiple 3rd downs. At halftime, OSU had managed to grab a 14-7 lead, helped by a miscue on an attempted Indiana punt. The Indiana offense was limited once Ohio State started bringing the blitz. The Buckeyes finished with 5 sacks. Indiana had 85 rushing yards on 40 attempts.  Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke was limited 68 yards on 18 pass attempts.

Texas 31 Kentucky 14 – The Wildcats are 1-7 in the SEC, so most people won’t look twice at this score; but Kentucky did beat Ole Miss and played Tennessee and Georgia tight.  Nice job from Texas controlling this game. 442 total yards for the Longhorns, with just 232 for Kentucky. Texas had 251 yards rushing on 46 attempts. The Longhorns had 6 sacks, and 2 picks.

Penn State 26 Minnesota 25 – The Golden Gophers almost delivered a crippling blow to James Franklin’s Playoff hopes, but the Nittany Lions survived in Minneapolis. Penn State was able to close out the game, maintaining possession over the last 5:48. Penn State outgained Minnesota by 79 yards, and Minnesota had 2 turnovers. Penn State was just 1 of 11 on 3rd down, while the Gophers were 5 of 12. Minnesota held the ball for 34 minutes. The Nittany Lions averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on 35 attempts.

Notre Dame 49 Army 14 – The Cadets suffered their first loss of the year. The Fighting Irish had 464 total yards against Army’s 233. Army held the ball for 39 minutes, but Notre Dame’s physical and talent differential everywhere was too much to overcome.

Oklahoma 24 Alabama 3 – The Sooners were coming off a bye, and obviously are a program with a lot of pride. They showed up ready to play. Still, even with the win, Oklahoma is a 6-5 team overall, just 2-5 in SEC play. This was a bad loss for the Crimson Tide, and today is probably not a fun day for Alabama HC Kalen DeBoer. The Alabama path to the CFP is now hanging by a thread. Alabama didn’t score after their 1st Quarter Field Goal. Jalen Milroe was 11 of 26, with 3 picks. The Crimson Tide were held to 70 yards rushing on 30 attempts. Oklahoma had two rushers with over 100 yards, and finished with 260 yards rushing on 49 attempts.

Miami 42 Wake Forest 14 – Miami improved to 10-1, with a blow out win over the Demon Deacons. 5 sacks and a pick for the Hurricanes defense.

Georgia 59 UMass 21 – Effectively a bye for the Bulldogs, but Carson Beck did add 4 TD’s to his ledger. 342 rushing yards for Georgia.

Florida 24 Ole Miss 17 – The Gators HC Billy Napier gets credit for turning Florida’s season around. With the win, Florida is now 6-5 overall, 4-4 in the SEC.  That seemed unlikely after the first few weeks of this season. The flip side is that this was a horrible a loss for Lane Kiffin and the Rebels. Their path to the CFP seems finished.

Tennessee 56 UTEP 0 –  Similarly to Georgia’s game vs. UMass, this was effectively a bye for the Volunteers.

Boise State 17 Wyoming 13 – The Broncos are now 10-1 overall, 7-0 in the Mountain West.  Wyoming fell to 2-9 overall, 2-5 in Conference play.  Boise State was down 13-10, when they started what would be the winning drive with 9:03 left. The biggest thing which stands out from the game, was that Boise was just 1 of 10 on 3rd down.

Other Scores Of Note

SMU 33 Virginia 7 – The Mustangs improved to 10-1 overall, 7-0 in ACC Play.
Arizona State 28 BYU 23 – A second straight loss for the Cougars. Arizona State survives a completed Hail Mary.  Both teams are 9-2 overall, 6-2 in Big 12 Play.
Auburn 43 Texas A&M 41 – The Tigers get the win over the Aggies in 4 OT. Had A&M won, they’d have been in a pretty good position given the results above. That’s over now.
Kansas 37 Colorado 21 – The Jayhawks have won 3 straight, over Iowa State, BYU, and now the Buffaloes.  Deion Sanders and Colorado falls to 6-2 in league play.

After Week 13, ESPN is Projecting the Committee’s Updated Top 12 as:

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Boise State
11. Indiana
12. Alabama

(Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Clemson, Arizona State, BYU, Tulane, Colorado)

We will see what the official rankings are, but some thoughts on the ESPN projection:

• The Hoosiers and Crimson Tide are both helped by Ole Miss losing.
• This projection now has two ACC teams in the Top 12. So, it’s possible the ACC won’t be limited to their Conference Game Champion.
• While Alabama is 12th here, they would not be in the CFP, as Arizona State (17th here in the projection) would be in as the projected Big 12 Champion.
• The Big 12 appears to definitely be down to only getting their Conference Game Champion into the CFP.
• I personally think Notre Dame is better than Penn State; but Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois is obviously worse than Penn State’s loss to Ohio State.
• Ole Miss being projected at 13 is interesting. That would have them still in striking distance if there are losses in-front. They were helped by Texas A&M, BYU, and Colorado losing.

Week 14 Games Of Note

Oregon at Washington – The Ducks are a 88.8% favorite to win.

Memphis at Tulane – 9-2 Tulane hosts 9-2 Memphis.  Tulane is a 86.5% favorite to win.

Oregon State at Boise State – The Broncos are 91.6% favorites to win against 5-6 Oregon State.

Mississippi State at Ole Miss – The Egg Bowl.  Obviously Ole Miss can’t lose this rivalry game, and have any chance at making the CFP.

Oklahoma State at Colorado – Colorado is one of four teams (Arizona State, BYU, and Iowa State) that is 6-2 in the Big 12. The Buffaloes are 81.4% favorites in this game.

Purdue at Indiana – Expect the Hoosiers to put a beating on their in-state rival.

Notre Dame at USC – The Trojans have won their last 2 and have won 3 of 4.  They have enough talent to scare the Irish. Notre Dame is a 71% favorite here. Without a Conference Championship Game to play, Notre Dame can not lose here.

Georgia Tech at Georgia – The Yellow Jackets have won their last two, and are 7-4. They’re given a 10.2% chance of the upset here.

Arizona State at Arizona – The Sun Devils are a 71.6% favorite vs. the Wildcats (4-7 overall, 2-6 in the Big 12).

Kansas State at Iowa State – The Cyclones (9-2 overall, 6-2 in the Big 12) are 54.4% favorites vs. the Wildcats (8-3, 5-3).

Michigan at Ohio State –  Can the defending National Champions put together one game against their rival? Probably not.

Tennessee at Vanderbilt – The Commodores are given a 20% chance of pulling the upset vs. the Volunteers.

South Carolina at Clemson – A de facto playoff game. Both teams still have aspirations of making the CFP.  The Tigers are given a 56.7% chance of winning.

Maryland at Penn State – The Nittany Lions will be looking to make a statement after their escape with Minnesota yesterday. Look for them to put up the points against a deflated Terrapins squad.

Auburn at Alabama – Auburn found a way to beat Texas A&M in 4 OT yesterday.  That will give them some life going into the Iron Bowl.  Alabama is the big favorite here (87.7%).

Houston at BYU – Cougars vs. Cougars.  BYU has lost their last two. They are a 87.1% favorite.

Texas at Texas A&M – The Longhorns are in the CFP, and are playing for seeding. Texas is a 77.3% favorite.