College Football 2025 – Where We Stand Headed Into Week 11

November is here and the regular season is coming to a crescendo. Our first CFP rankings were released on Tuesday, so time to list our gripes!

 

The CFP Rankings

 

Here are my random thoughts about the first rankings.

This is more predictive than resume-based, but I still like Texas A&M a little better than Indiana. But I get putting the Hoosiers ahead based on wins at Oregon and Iowa, versus the Aggies win at Notre Dame and an SEC schedule that so far is mostly lower tier teams.

While I won’t quibble too much over one spot, I like Texas Tech just a bit over BYU based on their record against one common opponent: Utah. The Red Raiders beat the Utes 34-10 in Salt Lake City, while the Cougars won 24-21 in Provo. Of course that score will ultimately be settled Saturday.

All in all, the Big 12 sure feels a lot stronger at the top this season than last year, with two teams in the Top 10 and three in the Top 13. Remember last year the eventual champion, Arizona State, didn’t even crack the Top 25 until the third set of rankings were released.

I agree with Oregon at #9 based on a relatively weak slate of wins, but I don’t think they should be punished too harshly based on what has happened to Penn State. The Lions team that took the field that night in Happy Valley is much different than what we’ve seen since then. I really do think the Ducks broke them.

Do we really believe Notre Dame deserves to be ranked as far ahead of Virginia and Louisville as they are? Or even ranked ahead of them at all? Louisville, who have 1-loss vs Notre Dame’s 2, did what the Irish couldn’t – defeat Miami in Miami. And of course the one team that has beaten the Cardinals is the Cavaliers. Are we really giving that much credit to Notre Dame over a 10-point win against USC? Please. At the very least, put the Cavs and Cards ahead of Texas and Oklahoma, a couple of mid SEC squads.

Interesting to see Iowa get some love while the AP poll has shunned them. They don’t have any good wins to hang their hat on, but narrow losses at Iowa State and to Indiana aren’t nothing.

While no Group of Five team cracked the initial rankings, I doubt that will be the case when the final rankings are released. At this point, it’s hard to see anyone other than the American champion getting the CFP bid. Maybe San Diego State has a long shot, but the Mountain West does not have any good wins out of conference this season and the Aztecs’ lone loss so far, to Washington State, is aging very poorly.

So if the playoff were to be seeded today, here would be the matchups for the first two rounds:

 

1st Rd – Played at home field of highest ranked team

• G5 at #5 Georgia
• #14 Virginia at #6 Ole Miss
• #10 Notre Dame at #7 BYU
• #9 Oregon at #8 Texas Tech

 

Quarterfinals – Played at TBD bowl site

• Oregon/Texas Tech vs #1 Ohio State
• Notre Dame/BYU vs #2 Indiana
• Virginia/Ole Miss vs #3 Texas A&M
• G5/Georgia vs #4 Alabama

 

Coaching Watch List

Two more SEC schools will be searching for new coaches this cycle, as LSU and Auburn parted ways with Brian Kelly and Hugh Freeze, respectively. In LSU’s case, they also parted with AD Scott Woodward whose track record of coaching hires is….not great (he also gave Jimbo Fisher the deal that led to Texas A&M paying what is still the largest buyout in history). Woodward inspired so little confidence that the governor of Louisiana went on The Pat McAfee Show to state that he would have no role in hiring the next head coach, essentially firing the guy live on the air. Having the governor directly intervening into athletic affairs sure makes the vacant AD and head coaching positions at LSU look more appealing, doesn’t it?

1. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – After being shut out for 11 consecutive quarters the Badgers put a touchdown on the board during garbage time in a loss at Oregon. That’s the good news. Seriously.

2. Mike Locklsey, Maryland – Can Maryland come up with the money to buy out Locksley’s remaining contract? Of equal concern is whether they can afford not to.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State – Norvell spared his job for at least another week with a blowout victory against Wake Forest that ended a 4-game losing streak and gave the Seminoles their first conference win of the season. Not exactly a reason to breath easy.

4. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State – The good news for the Spartans, winless in the Big Ten, is two of their final three games are against also-winless Penn State and quit-after-September Maryland. But is that really good enough?

Honorable Mention. Shane Beamer, South Carolina – The Gamecocks entered the season with high hopes, a #13 preseason ranking, and a Heisman hopeful in QB LaNorris Sellers. Now, barring a stunning upset at #3 Texas A&M in their next game, they won’t even be bowling.

 

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Texas A&M
3. Indiana
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas Tech
8. BYU
9. Oregon
10. Utah
11. Virginia
12. Louisville

 

Games of the Week

#7 BYU at #8 Texas Tech – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Texas Tech -10.5, O/U 52.5

Here is your most likely preview of the Big 12 Championship Game – though Cincinnati might still have something to say about that. Having already been dealt a conference loss, this is a much more important game for Texas Tech than BYU, and it’s in Lubbock, so I like the Red Raiders….though laying 10.5 feels too generous.

Pick: Texas Tech win/BYU cover

#3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri – 3:30pm ET, ESPN, Line: Texas A&M -6.5, O/U 47.5

In my last article I didn’t think Missouri was the 15th best team in the country, and two weeks later I’m not sure they are deserving of 22nd either. But you know what? This feels like a trap game for A&M, coming off a huge blowout win at LSU and the hype of the #3 CFP ranking. Better watch out, Aggies, this game has the makings of a rock fight.

Pick: Texas A&M win/Missouri cover

#9 Oregon at #20 Iowa – 3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Oregon -6.5, O/U 40.5

Kinnick Stadium has long been a house of horrors for visiting Top 10 teams, and I’m not getting great vibes from Oregon after that Indiana loss. Yeah, they crossed the country and boat-raced Rutgers immediately after that, but then struggled against a game, but offensively anemic Wisconsin team the following week. Iowa remains who they have always been – a team that can really fluster opposing offenses with good defense, ball control, and field position. The Ducks persevered and eventually prevailed in that style of game at Penn State, but Iowa is a better team. I smell upset.

Pick: Iowa win/cover