College Football 2025 – Where We Stand Headed Into Week 13

Only two more weeks to go in the regular season! The playoff field is narrowing, but still plenty of contenders remaining, so let’s dive in.

 

The Rankings

 

 

Ohio State and Indiana appear to be on a collision course to meet in the Big Ten Championship Game. If the chalk holds over the final two games, and given OSU’s recent history against Michigan that’s no sure thing, both teams should end up with a Top 4 seed no matter who wins the title game. If Michigan does win its 5th straight in the series, then it might be time to get out the tie-breaker list, as the Wolverines, Oregon and USC could still have a shot of playing for the Big Ten Championship.

Speaking of Oregon and USC, Saturday’s game at Eugene may essentially be a play-in game for the CFP. The winner will be well-positioned to at least garner an at-large bid. USC would most definitely be out if they pick up their third loss, and Oregon may also be cooked at just two losses but no wins over currently ranked teams to hang their hat on.

Texas A&M is in the driver’s seat in the SEC. They have a tune-up game this week against Samford before playing their first game in Austin in over a decade. As in the case of Michigan-Ohio State, upsets in these rivalry games are always on the table.

While Georgia holds the higher ranking, Alabama still has an edge over them in the SEC standings via the Tide’s head-to-head win. Georgia has the edge over Ole Miss for the same reason. Alabama and Ole Miss do not play this season. So it looks like it will be 4 teams in the mix for the two SEC Championship Game spots. One thing that appears certain is that preseason #1 Texas is toast (if they get in as a 3-loss team, let the ESPN/SEC playoff-rigging theories fly).

Texas Tech and BYU are currently on track to play for the Big 12 title, but a couple upsets could throw things into chaos. Utah, Houston, Cincinnati, and even banged-up defending champ Arizona State remain in the mix. If Cincinnati knocks off BYU Saturday night at home, get ready for a wild finish.

The ACC is a mess, and I’ll mostly leave it at that. Miami is still the highest-ranked and probably best team in the conference, but they are a long shot to get to the conference title game. The ACC-magedon narrative, in which the conference might get completely left out of the CFP because their champion would be ranked below two of the G5 conference champs, looks increasingly less-likely, but still isn’t completely out of the question.

As for the G5, the American race probably settles it all, but the teams at the top are beating each other up, so that doesn’t help in the CFP rankings and leaves an opening for another conference champion. This week it’s Tulane’s turn to be in the Top 25. James Madison from the Sun Belt remains in the mix, with San Diego State out of the Mountain West being a very long shot.

So if the playoff were to be seeded today, here would be the matchups for the first two rounds:

1st Rd – Played at home field of highest ranked team

• #24 Tulane at #5 Texas Tech
• #13 Miami at #6 Ole Miss
• #10 Alabama at #7 Oregon
• #9 Notre Dame at #8 Oklahoma

 

Quarterfinals – Played at TBD bowl site

• Oregon/Texas Tech vs #1 Ohio State
• Notre Dame/BYU vs #2 Indiana
• Virginia/Ole Miss vs #3 Texas A&M
• Tulane/Texas Tech vs #4 Georgia

 

Coaching Watch List

Not only were there no coaches dismissed since our last writing, but one recently-fired coach already found new employment (James Franklin – Virginia Tech) and the top two on the previous list (Luke Fickell – Wisconsin and Mike Locksley – Maryland) were informed they will return in 2026.

1. Mike Norvell, Florida State – The 5-5 Seminoles have two winnable road games left, at NC State and Florida. Maybe a strong finish where they end up 8-5 saves Norvell’s job. Anything less and I suspect this will be another high-profile opening.
2. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State – The idea of moving on from a coach after just two seasons seems rough, but the Spartans have regressed after going 5-7 last year, and only a season-ending home date with lowly Maryland may save them from going 0-9 in conference. Since MSU isn’t paying former coach Mel Tucker, who was fired for cause, money may not be as big a factor here.
3. Shane Beamer, South Carolina – It’s not getting any better in Columbia after the Gamecocks completely collapsed last Saturday, blowing a 30-3 halftime lead at Texas A&M. Pulling off an upset of that magnitude could have ended any hot seat discussion for Beamer. Oh well. And with the Franklin hiring he’s no longer the sentimental choice to go back to his Virginia Tech roots.
4. Bill Belichick, North Carolina – Do the Giants turn to their past and bring Belichick back to the NFL? Does it matter? The college experiment has clearly failed and a mutual parting of the ways between BB and UNC feels inevitable.

Honorable Mention. Dave Aranda, Baylor – Since going 12-2 and winning the Big 12 title in 2021, the Bears are 22-26 under Aranda. If he’s let go, the SoCal native might be a candidate for the UCLA job.

 

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Texas A&M
3. Indiana
4. Texas Tech
5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Oklahoma
8. Oregon
9. Alabama
10. Notre Dame
11. Utah
12. Georgia Tech

 

Games of the Week

#22 Missouri at #8 Oklahoma – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Oklahoma -7.5, O/U 42.5

I’ll say it again….can someone look at Missouri’s schedule and tell me what they’ve done that is so special as to have them in the rankings? Is simply existing in the SEC worth that much? Now the Sooners best not look past this game or suffer a hangover from last week’s huge win at Alabama, but I don’t think they will.

Pick: Oklahoma win/cover

#15 USC at #7 Oregon – 3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Oregon -10.5, O/U 59.5

Believe it or not USC is actually well-positioned to claim an at-large playoff bid. A road win against the Ducks and a victory over cross-town rival UCLA the following week would give them a 10-2 record with wins against two currently-ranked teams (#18 Michigan being the other). Meanwhile their only two losses were both on the road, against #9 Notre Dame and #21 Illinois, by a combined total of 12 points. So yeah, that’s probably CFP-worthy. But when was the last time USC went on the road and won a season-defining game like this one? Yeah, I don’t think so either. I actually think the Ducks win this one by exactly 10, so the Trojans would at least cover.

Pick: Oregon win/USC cover

#11 BYU at Cincinnati – 8:00pm ET, FOX, Line: BYU -2.5, O/U 54.5

This was the biggest game I could find that did not include two ranked teams. This won’t be easy for BYU, and a loss likely throws the Big 12 standings deep into the tie-breaker weeds. But I think the Cougars will prevail.

Pick: BYU win/cover