So now that we’ve had a couple looks at every team what can we deduce? Well, for me I vastly overrated and underrated some teams (more on that in a bit), and maybe certain players (hi, Arch Manning), and I think we can go ahead and start a coaching watch list (I’m sure you can guess at least one name on there). Let’s go!
Who did I overrate and underrate?
I suspected my preseason #12 Michigan might struggle on offense, but that a stout defense would be able to cover for them. That notion was put to bed when the Wolverines went to Norman and failed to get much of anything going against Oklahoma. Michigan true freshman QB Bryce Underwood will have better days than the 9-for-24, 142 yards, no TDs he posted against the Sooners, but putting them that high in preseason was obviously expecting too much too soon. Oklahoma meanwhile looks like they may have got their offensive issues from last season turned around behind QB John Mateer. It wasn’t an eye-popping game from the Washington State transfer, but against a very good defense it was plenty enough in a 24-13 win that didn’t feel as close as the score indicates.
Looking further back to Week 1 games, I had Alabama at #6 preseason [facepalm]. The Tide made a short trip south to Tallahassee to open the season against Florida State, they of the 2-10 record last season. Well, I’d say the ‘Noles are Exhibit A as to why we should pretty much ignore prior season results in the NIL/transfer portal era. They went from 13-0 in 2023 (I won’t ding them for that Orange Bowl disaster after having their hearts ripped out and seeing half their roster depart before the game) to the 2-win season last year, to a dominant statement win over Alabama in Week 1. The Tide were pushed around for most of the day, surrendering 230 yards on the ground while rushing for just 87 of their own. Dare we say it….Alabama has become rather ordinary. Certainly not the team we’ve learned to fear and revere for so long.
Speaking of surprise teams out of the Sunshine State, what a start to the season for South Florida! After a Week 1 Thursday Night beatdown of then-#23 Boise State, the Bulls rode up I-75 to Gainesville and knocked off then-#15 Florida 18-16, as an 18.5 point underdog no less. Alex Golesh looks like he may be building something special in Tampa. They have another tough non-conference test this week (see below), but right now the Bulls look like they are in the pole position to claim the G5 College Football Playoff spot, while the Broncos probably have to hope for some help at this point. As for the Gators, their next games are at #3 LSU, at #5 Miami, home against #7 Texas, then at #16 Texas A&M. Which brings me to…
Coaching Watch List
1. Billy Napier, Florida – Napier was getting the proverbial standing 8-count as late as last November when the Gators stood at 4-5. But then they logged back-to-back upset wins against ranked LSU and Ole Miss teams to finish a respectable 8-5 and buy Napier another season. Was that strong finish just fool’s gold? Will he even make it to Halloween? The schedule sure does him no favors.
2. Brent Pry, Virgina Tech – Following a 44-20 loss to Vanderbilt, Pry is just 16-23 since returning to his alma mater in ’22. Doesn’t look like he’s the guy to restore the glory of the Beamer era.
3. Tony Elliott, Virginia – Not a great time to be a power conference head coach in the Commonwealth right now. While expectations in Charlottesville might not be what they are in Blacksburg, Elliott’s 12-24 record at the start of his fourth season isn’t very good anywhere.
4. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State – Mike Gundy IS Oklahoma State football, so this is hard to imagine. But after going 3-9 last year, then suffering the worst defeat in program history at Oregon last week, there has to be a conversation in Stillwater right now.
My Top 12
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Oregon
- LSU
- Georgia
- Miami
- Notre Dame
- Texas
- Florida State
- Illinois
- Oklahoma
- South Carolina
Games of the Week
Georgia at Tennessee – 3:30pn ET, ABC, Line: Georgia -3.5, O/U 49.5
Two SEC powers clash early this year in a game that feels like it could be very decisive down the road. Both teams are still breaking in new QBs, much more unexpectedly so for the Vols after Nico Iamaleava sat out pring practice over his NIL deal and then transferred to UCLA. Joey Aguilar (who ironically transferred from UCLA) has been solid so far, but will face by far his biggest test yet. Ditto for Gunner Stockton on the UGA side. Both teams are led by their defense, so the scoring does not figure to be too high in this one (I’m definitely hitting the under). The Bulldogs have won eight straight in this series, and have covered six straight. I think that trend continues.
Pick: Georgia win/cover
South Florida at Miami – 4:30pm ET, The CW Network, Line: Miami -17.5, O/U 56.5
How on Earth does the CW end up with a matchup of Top 25 teams? They must be doing cartwheels down the hallways at network HQ over this. Good for them. This line feels more than a little disrespectful towards the Bulls given their accomplishments in Weeks 1 & 2. I’m sure they’re feeling disrespected right now, so I think this is a little closer than folks think.
Pick: Miami win, USF +17.5
Texas A&M at Notre Dame – 7:30pm ET, NBC, Line: Notre Dame -6.5, O/U 49.5
Notre Dame had a bye to lick their wounds and prepare following a tough Week 1 loss at Miami. You never want to write a team off after only two games in the expanded CFP era, but as an independent with what looks like a light schedule the rest of the way there has to be a sense of urgency in South Bend to get a win here. Meanwhile Mike Elko’s Aggie squad has had two easy home wins against UTSA and Utah State, so this will be their first real test. I think this one means too much to Notre Dame, so as long as they don’t play too tight and limit mistakes, I think they’ll prevail.
Pick: Notre Dame win/cover
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College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.