College Football 2025 – Where We Stand Headed Into Week 5

Only four weeks into the season and we’ve already seen three head coaches fired. The coaching carousel churns on in college football! As we get into the meat of conference schedules we will begin to separate pretenders from contenders. And plenty of great matchups this week to break down. So without further ado…

 

Let’s Catch Up

We had three matchups featuring two ranked teams, and we definitely need to talk about them.

Let’s start with the Big Ten. #9 Illinois and #19 Indiana met as ranked teams for the first time since 1950, but only one of them looked the part, as the Hoosiers blasted the Illini 63-10. This game was a shocker in large part because Indiana played a marshmallow soft non-conference schedule and did not look impressive against the toughest of those foes, Old Dominion. Illinois’ schedule wasn’t much better, but they did at least log a blowout win at Duke. Still, many were right to be skeptical.

So where does this leave each team’s CFP hopes? I had this circled as a key game for Illinois to pick up a good win for their resume. They get another chance when #21 USC comes to town on Saturday. They also get #1 Ohio State in Champaign on October 11th. They have to find a way to win at least one of those. The Hoosiers have tough road games at Oregon and Penn State, but no other teams currently ranked on their schedule, so this one might have been critical. And they delivered in a big way.

Another eye-opener was in the Big 12, when #17 Texas Tech visited Salt Lake City to take on #16 Utah. This one started out as a defensive slugfest, but then the Red Raiders went to backup QB Will Hammond in the second half and he finished the game with four straight scoring drives to seal an impressive 34-10 road win. Tech notably spent a lot of money putting together this year’s roster, and it’s showing. Meanwhile the Utes will need to shake this loss off quickly. After a trip to West Virginia they have critical conference matchups against Arizona State and at BYU. (and why are we playing the Holy War in the middle of the season and not the end?)

Finally #11 Oklahoma got its second win in three games against a ranked opponent with a hard fought win against #22 Auburn. The Sooners are now 4-0 (1-0) and look like they could make some noise in the SEC. That’s the good news. Now the bad news. QB John Mateer suffered a broken bone in his hand during the game that required surgery and will keep him out for about a month. That means he’s likely to miss games against Texas, South Carolina and Ole Miss, but can hopefully return to face Tennessee on Nov 1. Still, OU’s offense has struggled greatly without him, and their defense (which looks very good once again) must pick up the slack.

 

Coaching Watch List

Two names from my previous list, Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry and Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy, are already gone. So is UCLA’s Deshaun Foster. But there are still plenty of hot seats to go around.

1. Billy Napier, Florida – It’s not getting any better, or easier, for Napier. After losses at LSU and Miami, in which the offense looked mostly inept, the Gators now sit at 1-3. Oh, and they now get to do the Texas two-step against the #10 Longhorns and at the #9 Aggies. Is the mercy rule in effect here? At least Florida won’t lose this weekend….they have a bye.

2. Trent Bray, Oregon State – How did I manage to leave Bray off my first list after Week 1 and 2 debacles in which the Beavers couldn’t execute even the simplest of football actions, like snapping the football cleanly? Since then the Beavs have been outscored 86-21 in two games. Forgive the pun, but the dam has burst in Corvallis

3. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – I truly thought Fickell was an excellent hire for Wisconsin, but sometimes what looks like a home run ends up being just a long fly ball. After leading the Badgers to their first losing season since 2001 last year, they stand at 2-2 and were just dominated at home by Maryland.

4. Tony Elliott, Virginia – After getting a win against lowly Stanford, Elliott gets a bit of a reprieve and drops from #3 to 4 on my list. And the ACC schedule is looking a little friendlier now than it once did. Maybe even a bowl game is possible?

Honorable Mention. Dabo Swinney, Clemson – He has a huge buyout (about $60M) and I’m not sure Clemson can marshall the resources to manage that. And yeah, there’s the matter of those two titles he won the prior decade. But as we know all too well, a ‘chip only buys you so much time.

 

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Miami
3. Penn State
4. Oregon
5. Georgia
6. LSU
7. Oklahoma
8. Texas A&M
9. Florida State
10. Texas Tech
11. Indiana
12. Ole Miss

 

Games of the Week

USC at Illinois – Noon ET, FOX, Line: USC -6.5, O/U 60.5

Life comes at you fast. Think back to one week ago….Illinois was ranked #9 and riding high. Could you imagine then they’d be nearly a touchdown underdog at home to a team coming in from the West Coast (that is not named Oregon) for a 9am PT kickoff? Yet here we are. I’m not sure to what degree we should write off that debacle at Indiana as a fluke, but I’m sure the Illini will be well-motivated to wash the taste of that mess out of their mouths. I’m also not sure what to make of USC at this point. They kinda pass the eye test. Their best win so far came last week at the Coliseum against Michigan State, but that was still a one-score game halfway into the 4th Qtr. I’ve seen this movie before, and I’m not buying stock in the Trojans just yet.

Pick: Illinois win/cover

LSU at Ole Miss – 3:30pm ET, ABC, Line: Ole Miss -1.5, O/U 55.5

Big early SEC tilt with likely playoff implications. It’s a classic “Something’s Gotta Give” matchup, as LSU’s anemic #112 ranked rushing offense faces the Rebels’ #122 turnstile rushing defense. To add to the Tigers’ woes, QB Garrett Nussmeier has been less than impressive so far this season, despite LSU’s usual bevy of receiving weapons. On the flip side, it will be interesting to see how Lane Kiffin’s high-octane offense attacks a very stout LSU defense. The oddsmakers pretty much have it right, as this really feels like a coin flip. I lean with the home team on this one

Pick: Ole Miss win/cover

Oregon at Penn State – 7:30pm ET, NBC, Line: Penn State -3.5, O/U 51.5

It’s the first real test for these two title hopefuls. The Lions are coming off a bye following an extremely soft non-conference schedule. QB Drew Allar has been okay so far, albeit very untested. Of course the Lions’ bread is buttered in the running game with the best tandem in the sport, Kaytron Allen and Nic Singleton. Ducks QB Dante Moore has begun to live up to his 5-star billing, and true freshman WR Dakorien Moore has stepped up to fill in for the injured Evan Stewart. How Oregon’s defense plays will likely determine the outcome in this game. Despite losing, the Lions rushed for 297 yards (8.7 ypc) when the two squared off in the Big Ten championship game last year. Oregon will not be so fortunate if PSU comes anywhere near that number again.

Pick: Penn State win/cover

Alabama at Georgia – 7:30pm ET, ABC,  Line: Georgia -3.5, O/U 52-5

At long last, for the first time since 2015 Georgia gets Alabama in Athens instead of Atlanta, where the Tide have gone 4-0 against head coach Kirby Smart. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, as Georgia’s last game was a come-from-behind overtime thriller at Tennessee, while Alabama cruised at home against Wisconsin. We’ll find out now if the Tide have exorcised the demons of an ugly season-opening loss at Florida State. The good news is the Bulldogs allowed 371 passing yards in Knoxville, and Alabama’s passing game has been much more effective than its ground game so far. On the other hand, I’d be concerned about Alabama’s defense (how many times has anyone had to write that over the years?). The Tide have struggled on third downs (119th in FBS) and in the red zone (112th). The sample size is still relatively small just three games in, but does not sound promising for pulling off a road upset against a Top 5 opponent.

Pick: Georgia win/cover

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