College Football 2025 – Where We Stand Headed Into Week 7

Can you believe we are about to reach the halfway point of the season? Where has the time gone? So what have we learned so far? Well, three of the teams ranked in the Top 4 of the AP preseason poll (#1 Texas, #2 Penn State, #4 Clemson) all have multiple losses, at least one coming to an unranked opponent, and are currently out of the poll completely. Nothing wrong with preseason polls. They generate discussion. But once the games begin, you simply have to take everything you assumed about teams over the summer and check it at the door.

 

Let’s Catch Up

Week 6 was lighter on marquee matchups, but not on consequential results.

We’ll start with the lede, that being the teams with championship hopes entering the season that have crashed and burned. Clemson faded out of the picture from the get-go, so no need to go too deep into them other than mention that last week they further exposed what a farce the Bill Belichick Experiment at UNC has been so far. So the Tigers have that going for them at least.

Texas went to Gainesville to take on a reeling Florida team that is likely in a fight just to be bowl eligible, and took a 29-21 loss. Arch Manning had another mediocre showing, though he got no help from his line in the from of protection or a running game. The Gators were coming off three straight losses in which their defense played well enough to win, but couldn’t get enough out of QB DJ Lagway. But with their backs against the wall the sophomore turned in a solid performance. They’ll need it again this week, and in a much more hostile environment, as Florida heads to College Station to face #5 Texas A&M. As for the Longhorns, it feels like every game from here on is a must-win if they are to make the playoff, and that journey starts Saturday at Dallas against #6 Oklahoma. Arch Manning and a struggling OL against one of the top defenses in the country? We saw that in Week 1, and it didn’t end well for the ‘Horns.

Following a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to Oregon in their annual White Out game in Week 5, Penn State failed to respond in an embarrassing 42-37 loss to previously winless UCLA. The Lions fell behind 27-7 at halftime, and just couldn’t claw back before time expired. They still had a margin of error after the Oregon loss to get into the playoff, but that may have gone up in smoke. The Lions still have games at home against Indiana and at Ohio State remaining on the schedule. If they lose just one of those it becomes hard to imagine a 3-loss team, with one of those coming against the likes of UCLA, getting in.

Finally, in the biggest game of Week 6 Miami held on to defeat their rival, Florida State, 28-22. This game was another case study in why some, myself included, still have trouble declaring the Hurricanes a true title favorite despite clearly possessing the talent. For three quarters they looked unbeatable, holding a commanding 28-3 lead in a hostile environment. But then, as so often has been the case for Mario Cristobal-coached teams, they lost their edge and the Seminoles reeled off 19 4th Qtr points. How great was the threat of FSU actually pulling off an improbable comeback? Maybe not as much as the score might indicate, but if the Seminoles had simply got a lucky bounce on one of their three onside kick attempts, we could very easily be having a different conversation. Cristobal is who he is at this point, but it’s still a shock to see him continue to take his foot off the gas too soon, and apparently he has not learned how hard it is to regain momentum in those situations.

 

Coaching Watch List

Maybe it’s time for me to rename this the Coaching Reverse Jinx Watch List. After making the list for two weeks in a row, Virginia’s Tony Elliott went and got consecutive overtime wins at home against then-#8 Florida State and on the road at then-unbeaten Louisville. Now the Cavaliers find themselves ranked 19th in the AP. From the hot seat to Coach of the Year candidate. As much as we talk about the coaching carousel, you gotta love redemption stories like this. Well done, Coach Elliott.

1. Trent Bray, Oregon State – Two more frustrating, heart-breaking losses for the Beavers, in what they hoped would be a nice season with at least a bowl appearance. Now they are 0-6 and staring into an abyss. Within the last week their general manager resigned and the special teams coordinator was fired, but that feels like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic at this point. A complete tear-down feels both inevitable and necessary.

2. Billy Napier, Florida – Napier once again appears to have staved off termination. But there is still a feeling that it’s only postponing the inevitable when you look at the Gators’ still-brutal remaining schedule. The SEC is an absolute bloodbath this year, so if he can somehow get the four more wins needed for bowl eligibility maybe that will, and should, be enough for one more year. But the standards and expectations at Florida are much higher than 6-6.

3. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – After the brutal loss at home to Maryland and a bye, the Badgers hit the road and played valiantly against Michigan. But the result was the same….an anemic offense gave them little chance. Unfortunately for Fickell the schedule does not get any friendlier, and a winless conference record might not be out of the question if Wisconsin can’t generate some offense.

4. Mike Locklsey, Maryland – I know the Terps are currently 4-1, and expectations at Maryland aren’t especially high, but the Terrapins now have a very well-established pattern of post-September futility. Not counting the COVID season, under Locksley they are 21-5 in Aug-Sep, and 10-29 in Oct-Dec. That didn’t change course last Saturday, as they blew a 20-point, late 3rd Qtr lead to Washington and fell 24-20. Inexplicably, it also dropped Locksley to 0-8 at Maryland following a bye. With a recently-hired AD on board, Maryland might deem it time to make a change if the team doesn’t reverse the trend.

Honorable Mention. James Franklin, Penn State – Credit Franklin for not hiding from the truth following the loss to Oregon, which dropped his record against Top 6 teams to 4-21. He acknowledged the narrative he doesn’t win big games is real and factual, and until he starts flipping that stat it won’t go away. But then came the inexcusable UCLA debacle. Penn State would owe him $50M if it fired him after the season. That’s a lot to swallow for a coach who has won over 70% of his games and got the team to the CFP semifinals last year. But it’s fair to wonder how much longer simply being on the doorstep will be enough for PSU.

 

My Top 12

1. Ohio State
2. Miami
3. Oregon
4. Texas A&M
5. Oklahoma
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas Tech
8. Alabama
9. Indiana
10. Georgia
11. Georgia Tech
12. LSU

 

Games of the Week

#1 Ohio State at #17 Illinois – Noon ET, FOX, Line: Ohio State -14.5, O/U 49.5

I’m having a hard time seeing how the Illini will score enough points on the Buckeye defense, which is #1 in FBS in points allowed (5.0 pg) and #3 in yards allowed (215.8 pg). And while 14.5 points sounds like a lot for even the top-ranked team to lay on the road against a ranked opponent, OSU won by 18 two weeks ago against a tougher opponent (Washington) in a tougher venue.

Pick: Ohio State win/cover

#8 Alabama at #14 Missouri – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Alabama -3.5, O/U 51.5

The Tide have righted the ship after that opening loss at FSU, having beaten two straight ranked SEC opponents (Georgia and Vanderbilt). I’m still concerned with their running numbers, both offensively and defensively. But they should be fine against a Missouri team that has yet to face a ranked opponent.

Pick: Alabama win/cover

Indiana at Oregon – 3:30pm ET, CBS, Line: Oregon -7.5, O/U 55.5

This is the Hoosiers’ big chance to prove they are different than last year’s team that took advantage of a friendly schedule to make it to the playoff. They don’t necessarily have to win, but if they can go to Eugene and cover then I’ll believe they are a legitimate Top 10 team. The matchup features two potential 1st Round NFL QBs in Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore, but I’ll be watching the defenses in this one. Both are Top 10 in FBS in points and yards allowed. Very evenly matched, well-coached teams. Turnovers and Indiana’s ability to execute its offense in a very loud environment feel like the keys to this game.

Pick: Oregon win/Indiana cover

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