We are down to just six remaining unbeaten FBS teams, and if you would have guessed before the season that Georgia Tech, Navy and Indiana would be among them, I’d like to talk to you about your Powerball jackpot thoughts. Meanwhile, the buyouts for coaches fired so far this season has surpassed $100M, and $200M is well within reach. But hey, it’s only money.
Let’s Catch Up
Week 8 saw four teams among the AP Top 10 fall.
Beginning with last Friday, then #2 Miami lost its first game of the season, 24-21 to a Louisville team that came into South Florida unranked. It was a mostly sloppy showing for the ‘Canes, low-lighted by four Carson Beck interceptions thrown and an anemic 2.6 yards per carry by a typically potent Miami running game. While the Cardinals are a good team and there is no shame in losing to them, it was a result that has often typified Mario Cristobal teams, where the execution doesn’t consistently match the talent. Fortunately for Miami, the 12-team playoff is a much more forgiving format for hiccups like this, but it does nothing to dispel the narrative that Cristobal’s teams fizzle as the season wears on.
What world are we living in? Vanderbilt went into a game as the betting favorite over #10 LSU. Yes, you read that correctly. Not only that, but ESPN’s win predictor had them as the likely winner through all 60 minutes. Following the 31-24 victory the Commodores got a nice little bump in the AP rankings from #17 to #10.
Top 10 Vanderbilt???? I know what you’re thinking – and yes, I do have the answer. The last time the Commodores were ranked in the AP Top 10 was October 13, 1947. What else was going on that day, you ask? Well, the US engaged in an experiment to seed a hurricane with dry ice in what was dubbed Project Cirrus, and….it didn’t go well, as the storm took an unexpected change in direction and made landfall in Georgia, causing significant damage. In lighter news from that day, the first ever NHL All Star Game was played, and rock legend Sammy Hagar was born.
As for the Tigers, their playoff hopes are on life support, with back-to-bak games against #3 Texas A&M and #4 Alabama up next. Looks like another disappointing season is in the cards for Brian Kelly in Baton Rouge.
Ole Miss was dealt their first loss of the season at Georgia, a game in which their offense scored five touchdowns on their first five possessions, but then went dormant for the remainder of the game. The Rebels defense, on the other hand, failed to hold the Bulldogs scoreless on a single possession until the game-ending kneel-down. Luckily for the Rebels, they don’t face any potent offenses for the remainder of the season, so they still have solid playoff hopes.
As for the Bulldogs, they are now 2-1 in games against ranked opponents, and in each case their defense started out pretty poorly as they were forced to storm back against Tennessee and Ole Miss, while coming up just short against Alabama. The playoff and SEC title are still within their grasp, but they need to get off to better starts going forward.
Finally, Arizona State kept alive their hopes of returning to the playoff with a huge win over then #7 Texas Tech, 26-22. The return of QB Sam Leavitt for the Sun Devils after sitting out a loss at Utah due to injury made the difference. ASU is a much different team with him, and they will have to hope he stays healthy to get back in the Big 12 title game.
Meanwhile the Red Raiders will have a good chance to bounce back this week against lowly Oklahoma State, who are still searching for their first win against an FBS team. And while their fans are no doubt looking ahead to a huge showdown against #11 BYU in Lubbock on November 8, the team best not overlook what could be a tricky game at Kansas State the week before that.
Coaching Watch List
If you count the (dis)Honorable Mention, three more coaches from my last list joined the count of the unemployed. But don’t feel too bad for Billy Napier or James Franklin, as they are guaranteed to collect $21M and $45M, respectively. Trent Bray will only get $3.6M from Oregon State, so he may need to tighten his belt a bit. As always though, the coaching carousel proceeds on.
1. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin – The Badgers have been shut out in their last two games, both at home, and now head to #6 Oregon as a 33.5 point underdog. AD Chris McIntosh gave Fickell the dreaded vote of confidence, but when you look at the brutal schedule the Badgers still have ahead it’s really hard to envision this going on much longer.
2. Mike Locklsey, Maryland – That’s now three straight, and counting, blown 4th Quarter leads for the Terps following their 20-17 loss at UCLA. They also continue their trend of post-September futility. Since college football isn’t moving its season calendar to July thru September anytime soon, it seems Maryland will have to be the one to make a change to improve the situation at College Park.
3. Mike Norvell, Florida State – It no longer feels like we’re talking about the same season when we refer to the Seminoles’ Week 1 domination of Alabama. Both teams have been on vastly different trajectories since then, but this is about FSU. I’m sure it’s never easy for an Eastern time zone team to travel to the West Coast and play a game that kicks off at 10:30pm ET, but the ‘Noles ugly loss at Stanford (their fourth straight) cannot be excused. FSU says it will wait until after the season before making any decision on Norvell’s status, but with his team now completely out of the playoff picture and simply battling for bowl eligibility, it doesn’t look good.
4. Hugh Freeze, Auburn – The SEC is an unforgivable gauntlet, and the Tigers’ four straight losses have all come against ranked opponents. Nonetheless, looking at the rest of the schedule a six win season would appear to be the likely best case. Auburn is no stranger to having multiple head coaches on its payroll – as of last season they were still paying Gus Malzahn and Bryan Harsin along with Freeze. Some things never change.
Honorable Mention: Bill Belichick, North Carolina – This has been a predictable train wreck almost since the day he was hired. There really isn’t much more to say.
My Top 12
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Georgia Tech
- Oregon
- Miami
- Vanderbilt
- Ole Miss
- BYU
- Texas Tech
Games of the Week
#8 Ole Miss at #13 Oklahoma – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Oklahoma -4.5, O/U 54.5
After suffering a surprising first defeat against Texas, Oklahoma got right with a dominating 26-7 win at South Carolina. In his second game back following hand surgery, QB John Mateer had a better, though not spectacular, day than in his first game back against the Longhorns in which he threw 3 picks. But thanks to a stifling Sooner defense, it was plenty good enough.
Of course, I already talked about the recent struggles of Ole Miss’s defense. So I guess what I’m saying is, this looks like a perfect opportunity for the Sooner offense to really get on track.
Pick: Oklahoma win/cover
#15 Missouri at #10 Vanderbilt – 3:30pm ET, ESPN, Line: Vanderbilt -2.5, O/U 52.5
Based on their schedule, in which their most impressive result might be a 3-point loss at home to Alabama, I’m really not getting Top 15 vibes from Mizzou. With ESPN College Gameday in Nashville for this one, I like the home team.
Pick: Vanderbilt win/cover
#3 Texas A&M at #20 LSU – 7:30pm ET, ABC, Line: Texas A&M -2.5, O/U 48.5
The Aggies had to fend off a feisty Arkansas team in Fayetteville last week, pulling out a 45-42 win. The result doesn’t necessarily instill confidence in their chances going to Death Valley. Points will likely be hard to come by for A&M, and despite an anemic LSU offense it feels like this could be a very tight affair against a team fighting for their season and maybe their coach’s job.
Pick: LSU win/cover
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.