So now that we have two weeks of games and data to absorb, what can we say about the 2026 season so far?
Contender or Pretender?
It’s hard to argue the most disappointing team so far has been Oregon. After needing another 4th Quarter comeback to sneak past pesky, underrated Boise State again in Week 1, the Ducks hit the road to take on Oklahoma State. Oregon defeated the Cowboys 69-3 last season, and OSU began this season with an ugly 24-10 loss at Tulsa. This should have been a tuneup for Oregon, even on the road. Instead they face-planted in a 39-31 loss. The Ducks’ offensive line, which I had questions about headed into the season, struggled all day to open holes for the running game (just 90 yards on 3.0 ypc) and protect QB Dante Moore. Shocking, though, was how bad the defense played. They allowed 554 total yards, 237 on the ground at nearly 6 yards per rush.
In the 12-team playoff era, no Power 4 team is out with one loss, especially an early-season, non-conference loss. But Oregon has really put themselves in a hole. Unless Oklahoma State’s Week 1 loss was an aberration and they go on to wreak havoc in the Big 12, this loss will look very bad on Oregon’s resume. Such that 9-3 seems very unlikely to get them in the playoff. With remaining games at USC, at Ohio State, and against Michigan (more on them in a bit), Dan Lanning had better get his defense right or this season will fall far short of expectations.
Will the Real Wolverines Please Stand Up?
Maybe Michigan was looking ahead to their big Week 2 tilt with Oklahoma visiting the Big House when they sleep-walked through 60 minutes (or, I guess, 59 minutes and 59 seconds) in a controversial Week 1 win over Western Michigan (a.k.a. The Bail Mary). Despite his last-second heroics, QB Bryce Underwood struggled against WMU to the point head coach Kyle Whittingham was noncommittal on his status as the starter.
But Underwood did start what was billed as a matchup of marquee QBs with his Sooner counterpart, John Mateer. And while Underwood shined at times, particularly on a 38-yard touchdown run, his passing numbers were pedestrian in what was largely a defensive slugfest. Unlike Mateer, who threw a costly interception deep in his own territory that set up Michigan’s other touchdown, Underwood was turnover-free, and that made the difference.
As big a win as this was for the Wolverines, it’s hard to see a playoff contender with their current offense. While this loss shouldn’t reflect too poorly on Oklahoma’s resume, they continue to have offensive issues of their own. In what looks like a brutally tough SEC, they have to be viewed as a fringe playoff contender right now.
A G6 Leader Emerges
While Boise State’s marquee matchup of the season may have been Week 1 in Eugene, Saturday’s 38-20 home victory against Memphis will likely be far more consequential. After Memphis dispatched of UNLV in Week 1, the Tigers went back West to face the Broncos, and jumped out to a 17-3 lead early in the 2nd Qtr thanks to several big plays. But it was downhill after that, as the Broncos outscored the visitors 35-3 the rest of the way. Not only does this establish Boise State as the G6 team to beat, but it gives an opening to other Pac-12 hopefuls that they could have a leg-up on the American conference champion if they can win their own conference.
Showdown in the Lone Star State
Easily the game of the season thus far was then-#1 Ohio State visiting Austin against then-#4 Texas. The Buckeyes dominated for nearly three quarters and led 23-3, and frankly it should have been (and ultimately needed to be) a bigger lead than that. The Longhorns made a lot of early mistakes, but cleaned it up and stormed back with touchdowns on each of their last three possessions to pull ahead 24-23 with 25 seconds remaining, completing one of the biggest wins for Texas in many years.
The Buckeye’s offense went stagnant in the 4th — their possessions were a 3-and-out, a 7-play drive that resulted in a missed field goal attempt, and a game-ending interception. Their defense couldn’t get off the field when it mattered most — Texas ran a total of 40 plays on their three TD drives.
Last year ‘Horns coach Steve Sarkisian was quick to claim Texas was punished by the CFP selection committee for losing a close game (14-7) in Columbus last season and missing the playoff as a 9-3 team. Consistent to his word, he stated Monday that Ohio State should not suffer the same fate if they end up going 9-3, or else more and more big name teams will stop scheduling these marquee non-conference games. We’ll see how it plays out for OSU, but Sarkisian makes a fair point. Either way this is a great resume-building win for the Longhorns who face a rough schedule in SEC play.
Top 10
1. Georgia — The Bulldogs have yet to be tested by a strong opponent, and won’t be until Oklahoma visits Athens in Week 4. But they haven’t lacked for style points
2. Texas — Some sloppy play in the first three quarters of the OSU game keeps them just behind the Bulldogs for now.
3. Notre Dame — Another team whose style points will have to do the talking. Their schedule is pretty soft until an October 17 trip to BYU.
4. Ohio State — The Buckeyes had an enormous road win in their grasp, and couldn’t close.
5. Indiana — Feels like the Hoosiers are just on cruise control until their Oct 17 trip to Columbus.
6. Texas A&M — A very convincing win over Arizona State has the Aggies in strong position as the SEC schedule begins.
7. Miami — The Hurricanes are averaging 61 points per game so far. They need to avoid a letdown before their Nov trip to South Bend, something they’ve struggled with in the past.
8. LSU — Death Valley may still have crime scene tape marking off the field after what they did to Clemson in Week 1. Their trip to Ole Miss this week should be appointment viewing.
9. Ole Miss — See above.
10. Oklahoma — The offense remains a big concern for the Sooners, even with a healthy John Mateer.
No. 22 Houston at No. 13 Texas Tech — Friday 8:00pm ET, FOX
Line: Texas Tech -7.5, O/U
We have a benefit in evaluating this one because these two teams already share a common opponent: Oregon State. Both games were more competitive than expected, with OSU covering by double-digits in each, which might simply say more about the Beavers than either the Cougars or Red Raiders.
After a tumultuous offseason for Tech regarding the QB position, the Red Raiders ended up staying in-house with third-year player Will Hammond. Hammond’s results were somewhat underwhelming against both Oregon State and Abilene Christian considering the competition. The Cougars roll with the much more experienced Connor Weigman, who also had mixed results against OSU and a brief Week 2 in a blowout win over Southern. Still, I give a slight edge to Weigman, even headed into a hostile road environment.
I think this game will come down to the defenses. While Tech is more talented on paper, especially up front, Oregon State gouged them in the passing game pretty good — to the tune of 417 yards and 8.0 yards per attempt. Also Houston’s offensive line seemed to get a lot more push against the Beavers than Tech did.
I think I smell an upset here.
Houston win/cover
No. 16 SMU at No. 23 Louisville — 3:30pm ET, ESPN
Line: Louisville -1.5, O/U 59.5
It’s the second of three ranked matchups in Week 3, and it feels like a pivotal early matchup in the ACC. My concerns over the inexperience of Cardinals QB Lincoln Kienholz have largely been assuaged after a strong showing in a heartbreaking 41-38 loss to #8 Ole Miss in Memphis. But as the final score would indicate, I do have concerns over the state of Louisville’s defense — particularly the pass defense, which would seem ripe for Mustangs head coach Rhett Lashlee and QB Kevin Jennings to exploit. The Cards have also been pretty sloppy so far, averaging 86 penalty yards per game.
I think another road team pulls an upset.
SMU win/cover
No. 7 LSU vs. No. 8 Ole Miss — 7:30pm ET, ABC
Line: LSU -3, O/U 59.5
Is it too much to ask for just one week free of any Lane Kiffin-connected drama? I was all set to publish this article 24 hours ago when suddenly the news dropped — LSU QB Sam Leavitt was listed on the Wednesday injury report as doubtful. Per SEC rules, that would indicate a less than 25% chance of being available to play. At no time during LSU’s Week 2 game against Louisiana did Leavitt appear to suffer any injury, nor did Kiffin say anything about his health prior to the release of the injury report. Is this just gamesmanship in attempt to tweak Kiffin’s former employer, towards whom he no doubt still feels aggrieved for not allowing him to coach Ole Miss in the CFP after he announced he’d be leaving for LSU? If so, he better hope no one at SEC HQ finds out, as that would no doubt be a violation that could lead to significant punishment from a conference that is already pretty fed up with his schtick.
Anyway, I am going to take this information at face value and assume Leavitt likely will not play. He’s been shaky at times so far this season, and has 4 INTs to just 2 passing TDs (he’s rushed for 5 TDs though). With him out, the Tigers will be relying on either Elon transfer Layden Clark or USC transfer Husan Longstreet, who has attempted 16 passes in his college career thus far. Considering how hostile and emotionally charged the environment in Oxford will be Saturday night, that does not sound like a winning formula.
Ole Miss win/cover
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.