First Year Assessment
Safe to say that the consensus among college football fans and pundits is that the start of the 12-team CFP era has mostly been a disappointment. We’ve played 10 games thus far and only two have ended within a 1-score margin — though Texas was on the precipice of tying the semifinal game against Ohio State with just over two minutes remaining, but instead surrendered an 83-yard scoop-and-score. Point being this playoff has not delivered many compelling games.
Does that mean that expanding to 12 teams was a mistake, and contracting the field should be on the table? Or could the format simply stand some tweaks? Or is this year just an anomaly and we should just leave it alone and get a larger sample size before making conclusions? I’ll give my thoughts on what we’ve seen and where I think we should be headed before diving into the title game between Notre Dame and Ohio State.
What Could Improve
First things first; I have never heard of any sports league contracting its playoff field, and college football won’t be the first. There’s too much money that would be lost. If anything, we’re more likely to see expansion of the field to 14 or even 16 teams at some point, maybe even in the near future. We’ve long known that what separates the best team from the 12th best team in college football is a wider gulf than in the NFL or other leagues. The unique nature of the sport compels it.
That means you simply aren’t going to avoid having blowout games. They are a part of all competitive sports though. Witness this year’s NFL playoffs. As of the end of Saturday Jan 18, eight playoff games have been played and only one of them was decided by one score. This for a league that is built to foster parity. And for those with shorter memories, the 4-team CFP featured more than its fair share of blowout games. Of the 30 semifinal and final games played between the 2014 and 2023 seasons, just 10 were decided by one score.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t ways to improve the product and potentially give us more competitive games. For starters, I think the seeding needs to be reworked. I’m okay with assuring the five highest ranked conference champions a spot in the field – though I think many years those five teams will be among the Top 12 teams in the final rankings anyway. That was the case for four of the five this year. Only Clemson (#16) got the gift of a bump up, at the expense of Alabama (#11). But once you have your 12 team field, the teams should be seeded in the order of their final ranking. No guarantees of a Top 4 seed for the four highest ranked conference champions.
Secondly, we really need to find a way to shorten the layoff for the Top 4 seeds that get a bye in the first round. For those four teams this year, nearly one full month passed between their conference championship game and their first playoff game. While time to rest and prepare is nice, there is a school of thought that these teams were at a disadvantage going against opponents that had a week-and-a-half off after their 1st Round games. Yes, the sample size is small, but that all four conference champions lost seems telling. Just as telling is that three of those lost by double digits, and three (though not the exact same three) fell behind by two touchdowns early in the game. Seems some teams might have had trouble knocking off the rust, and didn’t get it going until it was too late.
How we shorten the layoff gets tricky, and it definitely won’t happen in 2025. The CFP organizers had to thread a needle in terms of scheduling these games. I won’t get deep into the weeds on why, but three three factors influenced how this year’s games were scheduled; the college football schedule, the NFL schedule (they want to avoid going head-to-head with NFL games whenever possible), and the academic calendar (specifically final exams) at the schools. The reason we are likely going to see a very similar, if not identical, setup next year is due to previously existing contracts from the 4-team era with the bowl games that are part of the CFP. But after the 2025 season those contracts expire. Additionally, no format has been decided for 2026 and beyond. So the CFP will be working with a clean slate. Options like moving up the official start of the season by one week (to what we now call Week Zero, when a very limited amount of games are played) should be on the table. Starting and ending the season a week earlier gives more flexibility for postseason scheduling.
Finally, let the Top 4 seeds that had a 1st Round bye host the quarterfinal games on their campus, just like the higher seeded 1st Round teams did. While the 1st Round wasn’t very competitive, where those games did deliver was the in-stadium atmosphere. If having that longer layoff is actually a detriment to the teams with a bye, why not level the field by letting them play in their home stadium instead of some neutral field bowl game?
Ok, that’s enough for now. On to the title game.
#5 Notre Dame vs #6 Ohio State
Monday January 20, 2025 – Atlanta, GA
Line: Ohio State -8.5, O/U: 45.5
What a season it has been for Marcus Freeman. Notre Dame’s head coach did a remarkable job bouncing back from an ugly Week 2 loss at home to Northern Illinois and got his team in position to play for the national title. Notre Dame is 12-3 against the spread this season, tied with Arizona State and Marshall for the most covers in the country. That’s a remarkable feat.
The Irish have established a strong identity on the field. They know who they are, and Freeman plays to those strengths. Notre Dame’s victory over Penn State in the semifinal round was a terrific example of good coaching. The Irish didn’t panic. They stuck to their game plan, didn’t flinch when they trailed, and eventually found a way. Freeman will try to make this game look ugly, turn it into a rockfight at the line of scrimmage, limit possessions, and borrow a page from the Michigan playbook.
I don’t think the Irish will pull it off.
Ohio State is dialed-in on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes have big edge in talent, a competent coaching staff, and are playing outstanding defense. Since giving up 32 in a 1-point October loss at Oregon, Ohio State’s defense has surrendered 17, 13, 0, 7, 15, 13, 17, 21, and 14 points. That “21” is a little misleading, too, as it came in a blowout win over Oregon in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal. Offensively in the playoff, QB Will Howard has been efficient, WR Jeremiah Smith has been unstoppable, and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has made all the right calls. Ohio State has already played, and defeated, better competition than Notre Dame in this playoff.
The victory for the Irish was making it this far. It gives Freeman something to build on for next season. I like the Buckeyes to win and cover the spread.
Final score prediction: Ohio State 31 – Notre Dame 16
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.