Here we are at the halfway mark of the 2026 season. I’ll be brief on the summarizing though, as this week’s epic lineup of games is what truly deserves the most billing.
The SEC is Eating its Own
While the playoff will determine the champion, which has been the domain of the Big Ten each of the previous three seasons, it is safe to say that the SEC is the top-to-bottom class of the sport right now. A whopping nine teams are currently ranked among the Top 30 of Bill Connelly’s SP+. Throw in that the conference went to a 9-game schedule this season and the outcome is obvious; they’re beating each other up.
Let’s start with the Red River Reckoning [Rivalry]. It was certainly a rough afternoon for Arch Manning (two 4th Qtr interceptions, one returned for a TD). But to lose to an Oklahoma offense that averaged just 4.2 yards per play and was just 2-of-13 on 3rd downs took a team effort, including a blocked punt the Sooners returned for a TD. And while the Sooners offense didn’t do much, credit to QB John Mateer, who appeared to be on his way to the bench, for managing the game while completing passes of 13 and 20 yards to set up the game-winning FG as time expired. The Sooners still have little chance at making the playoff, but there are at least signs of life.
The SEC’s main course of Georgia at Alabama had a little of everything. Starting with a hurricane that passed by Tuscaloosa early in the day and forced ESPN’s College GameDay into a gymnasium. But the game went on as scheduled and was one of those old-fashioned SEC slugfests. Despite being without their top two running backs the Dawgs managed 206 yards rushing, while Gunnar Stockton was a very efficient 18/22, 249 yards (11.3 yards per attempt) as Georgia went 7/13 on 3rd down. Alabama moved the ball, but also struggled to get into scoring range due to mistakes and negative plays. That said, perhaps the biggest mistake of the game did not belong to either team but to the officials, who did not call what appeared to be an obvious defensive pass interference on Georgia DB KJ Bolden in the end zone late in the 4th Quarter. Had the call been made it would have put the Tide in FG range to tie and kept a potential go-ahead TD drive going. Instead Alabama took a sack on the next play and had to punt, and Georgia was able to run out the clock.
A Big Shift in the Big Ten?
UCLA continued its rise among the college football ranks by going to Oregon and leaving with an improbable 17-15 win. As the score suggests, this was not only a game dominated by defense, but was ugly for the offenses, and that’s probably an understatement. The game featured 10 turnovers, seven of them by Oregon. That’s not to say it was a banner day for the Bruins either, as they were penalized 9 times and were just 4-of-16 on third down. It was also not a good day for either quarterback who started this game. Bruins QB Nico Iamaleava threw 2 interceptions to no touchdowns, and appeared to suffer a lower leg injury in the 2nd Quarter that led to him not returning for the second half. His replacement, Ty Dieffenbach, was not asked to do much, and thanks to just enough production from RB Wayne Knight he didn’t have to. Dylan Raiola got the start for the Ducks for Dante Moore, who is still recovering from a concussion suffered during the game at USC. Raiola filled in masterfully for Moore that day. But this day was much, much different. Raiola was under pressure constantly and went just 6/19, 43 yards, 2 picks plus a fumble lost before being benched after 3 quarters for 3rd-string QB Brock Thomas. Thomas did reasonably well, leading the Ducks to a TD drive with 2:16 left, but Oregon could not convert the 2-point attempt, and that was the difference.
The unbeaten Bruins have all the look of the 2024 Indiana Hoosiers who went 11-1 and made the CFP, complete with their own ex-James Madison head coach. While their remaining schedule appears to set up well, they will have to manage without Iamaleava this weekend against 4-1 Wisconsin at the Rose Bowl. The Ducks meanwhile are facing the longest of odds to return to the CFP. Moore is still out this Saturday against a 5-1 Nebraska team that nearly knocked off Indiana last Saturday. And even if Oregon does get by the next several games, a Nov. 7 trip to Columbus looms, and it’s almost impossible to envision a playoff path for an Oregon team with 3 losses.
My Top 10
1. Georgia — Yes, they certainly benefitted from a controversial no-call late in the game at Alabama, but also showed me enough to prove they are legit and deserve to be atop the perch
2. Ohio State — They didn’t just survive a trip to Kinnick, they controlled the game against a team whose hallmark is dictating the style of play to their opponent. Another big test awaits Saturday
3. Notre Dame — The Irish will finally face playoff worthy competition Saturday
4. Alabama — Costly officiating error aside, the Tide can point to several plays-not-made of their own that cost them. Still, they proved they are a serious title contender
5. Miami — That close win at Wake Forest is aging better, but the ‘Canes can’t afford to get caught looking ahead to Nov. 7 in South Bend
6. Indiana — After a couple of close calls against Northwestern and Nebraska, the nation’s longest winning streak is on the line in what may be the biggest home game in IU history
7. Texas — Steve Sarkisian makes a fair point; Arch’s lineage put expectations on his back that any college QB would struggle to meet. But he has to be much better than Saturday for the ‘Horns to have any shot
8. BYU — Saturday’s game against Notre Dame replaced the Irish’s traditional game against USC, and this is one time I don’t mind seeing a rivalry interrupted
9. Ole Miss — Now that the aftertaste of that letdown at Florida is gone, time to get back to work with a better-than-I-thought Missouri team coming to Oxford
10. Texas Tech — They appear to have a pretty manageable path to Arlington for the Big 12 title game
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana — Noon ET, FOX
Line: Ohio State -3.5, O/U 50.5
The defending national champion, owner of a 22-game winning streak, is an underdog at home. Disrespectful? Maybe. But with Jeremiah Smith and the SP+ No. 1 offense coming to town, it shouldn’t be a surprise. This will be the first real look for many at the current Hoosiers team, which has had much turnover from the one that knocked off Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game last season.
While Indiana’s defense just may be good enough to slow down Smith & Co., the Hoosier offense is a concern. The headline numbers look solid, but an under-the-hood view shows some of those numbers were padded against the likes of Howard and Western Kentucky, and against tougher opponents like Northwestern and Nebraska their ability to stay on schedule running the ball on early downs has led to middling results on 3rd Down. That won’t succeed against the Buckeyes. But as always under Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers won’t beat themselves — they have just one turnover all season and are 4th in FBS in fewest penalties accepted. OSU has its work cut out for it, and this should be a tight game, but defense travels well and the Buckeyes have an elite one.
Ohio State win/Indiana cover
No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 LSU — Noon ET, ESPN
Line: LSU -15.5, O/U 57.5
There’s been a significant line shift, 3 points, towards LSU due to the questionable status of MSU quarterback Kamario Taylor, who left the game against Alabama in the 3rd Quarter with a lower leg injury. If Taylor can’t go, +15.5 may not be enough, as the Bulldogs just don’t have a defense they can lean on (98th in the country in EPA allowed per pass and give up 28.0 points per game — tied for 108th). Despite Sam Leavitt’s 8 interceptions thus far, he should have big numbers in this game. Even if Taylor plays, he may well be limited physically, so I’ll take LSU even laying over two TDs.
LSU win/cover
No. 6 Alabama at No. 14 Tennessee — 3:30pm ET, ABC
Line: Alabama -7.5, O/U 50.5
Fresh off its first loss of the season, the Tide head to Knoxville to face a Tennessee team that’s won five of six. Hitting the road after an emotional loss, against a quality SEC opponent, is the kind of trap Alabama must avoid if it wants to stay in the playoff conversation.
The efficiency numbers favor Alabama’s offense heavily. The Crimson Tide are 16th in adjusted EPA per play and 4th in success rate, and have dropped 45 or more points on everyone but Georgia. The Vols’ offense is the mirror image — 121st in EPA per pass and 126th in pass play success rate, and have an unsettled quarterback situation — George MacIntyre replaced injured Faizon Brandon during the Texas loss, and it has yet to be determined who will start Saturday. The offense goes through RB DeSean Bishop, who has 678 rushing yards and ranks second nationally in EPA per rush. Tennessee’s best asset is a defense that is 32nd in adjusted EPA per play and 14th in EPA per pass.
Even with their defense, Tennessee will have to score in the high 20s to keep this close, and a team with the 121st-ranked passing offense and an injured starting quarterback, and a backup who has mostly been ineffective, will struggle to do that against a top-10 defense. If Bishop can’t carry the whole load, Alabama’s offense, which averages 44.2 points per game, only needs a few explosive plays against Tennessee’s secondary. Even with Tide WR Ryan Coleman-Williams out, I think they will get the big plays they need.
Alabama win/cover
No. 13 Missouri at No. 9 Ole Miss — 3:30pm ET, SECN
Line: Ole Miss -5.5, O/U 58.5
I apologize, Missouri, I was unfamiliar with your game. I dissed on the Tigers pretty bad in previewing their game against Florida, and all they did was whack the Gators 45-17 and then stifled Texas A&M 27-6. I won’t make that mistake again. Or will I?
The Tigers’ offense is 14th in the nation in adjusted EPA per play and 19th in yards per play, compared with 44th and 36th for Ole Miss. Ole Miss’s defense is the clearest weakness in this matchup, ranking 91st in opponent success rate and 100th in opponent adjusted EPA per play. Missouri’s defense sits in the 90th percentile for EPA allowed and 94th percentile in success rate allowed.
Still, I’ve yet to see Missouri do it on the road in the SEC. And in what figures to be a pass-heavy, high-scoring game, and edge goes to the Heisman-hopeful QB (Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss). With all that said, right team, wrong number.
Ole Miss win/Missouri cover
No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 8 BYU — 7:30pm ET, ABC
Line: Notre Dame -10.5, O/U 46.5
The Irish have played only one team within the SP+ Top 55 (#34 Wisconsin). But still, their adjusted metrics make them a decisive favorite. They lead the country in offensive adjusted EPA per play and they rank 2nd in points per drive and third in success rate, EPA per snap, and EPA per dropback. The defense is just as strong. It is sixth nationally in net adjusted EPA per play and fourth in rush success rate allowed (33.8%).
The Cougars are obviously no slouch. Their offense has been efficient too, ranking in the Top 10 in offensive success rate at 50.9%, but it is without running back LJ Martin and face a defensive front that has been among the best in the country, a tall order for a BYU team that relies on the run. BYU’s defense is 29th in opponent success rate but has struggled to stop the run, ranking 77th in EPA per rush allowed, which is the weakness Notre Dame is best built to exploit.
LaVell Edwards Stadium will be electric, and the Irish have little experience dealing with adversity so far. This should really be a test for them. I like Notre Dame to win, but double-digits feels like a bit too much.
Notre Dame win/BYU cover
No. 18 Oklahoma State at No. 20 Houston — 7:30pm ET, FOX
Line: Houston -4.5, O/U 62.5
This one sets up as another high-scoring affair. The history backs that up, since the over has hit in five straight meetings between these teams. Houston is 7th in the country in offensive success rate but 58th in opponent success rate, while Oklahoma State is 22nd in success rate but 46th in opponent success rate. Oklahoma State arrives with a four-game winning streak that includes a Week 2 upset of Oregon, but its minus-3 turnover margin is a concern.
Houston, for its part, is coming off a 35-16 win at Kansas State. Their lone loss was at Texas Tech by just two points, but because of that result this feels like an elimination game for the Cougars to make the Big 12 title game and stay in the CFP conversation. That turnover issue for the Cowboys sticks with me as a possible difference maker in a game that could come down to who has the ball last.
Houston win/Oklahoma State cover
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.