The bullpen is one of the most overlooked parts of the roster, though it doesn’t deserve to be taken for granted as many fans are wont to do. Take for example, this season’s standings so far. As of June 21st the Orioles sit 1 game behind the New York Yankees for the second wild card slot in the American League. One area where the Yankees have had an edge over the O’s is in the bullpen as their relievers have posted 3.1 fWAR compared to the O’s paltry 0.8 fWAR. Those 2.3 wins out of the ‘pen are certainly one of the reasons the O’s trail New York in the standings.
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So far this season the Orioles have had 12 pitchers come into a game out of the bullpen. Of those 12 pitchers, 6 have posted negative fWARs as relievers (Hunter, Gonzalez, Patton, Stinson, Meek, and Matusz), 2 of them have been a wash (Brach and Guilmet), and 4 of them have been positive contributors (Webb, Britton, O’Day, and McFarland). fWAR isn’t necessarily the best metric to go by for relievers, but even using Win Probability Added (WPA) which accounts for the leverage of a given appearance, the only change is that Matusz goes from among the worst to 4th best on the team.
Looking at the performance of the O’s bullpen from 2011-2014 gives us some context to understand the role a bullpen can play on a team that’s trying to grab every marginal win it can. During the O’s 2012 playoff run the bullpen added more than 6 wins to the club’s fWAR total, by far the most in club history. 2013 saw another playoff run, albeit a less successful one. Last year the bullpen added more than 4 wins to the team’s total, a solid contribution no doubt.
So far in 2014 the bullpen’s 0.8 fWAR means that it will be difficult for the ‘pen to match the highs of the two previous seasons. It’s more reminiscent in fact of 2011 where the 2.2 fWAR from the bullpen didn’t impact the team’s postseason hopes at all.
The Orioles have a couple of options for improving the bullpen without going the trade route as in years past. One option is by bringing up Clay Rapada to replace Brian Matusz as the LOOGY in the bullpen. Rapada was signed to a minor league deal recently, and this would be his second stint as an Oriole should he get the call. Rapada, if deployed exclusively as a LOOGY is a valuable tool for a manager. For his career lefties have hit for a triple slash of .162/.255/.231 against Rapada. That’s good for a pitiful wOBA of .228, making Rapada among the best at getting left handed hitters out. The key is to just not use Rapada against righties as they have hit .345/.464/.611 against him over 138 plate appearances.
Another potential tool down the line could be Dylan Bundy, the phenom pitching prospect who is coming back from Tommy John surgery currently. Over 10 innings at Low A Aberdeen Bundy has struck out 15 batters while allowing just 7 hits, 1 walk, and 1 earned run. Bundy still has a way to go in his rehab assignment, including 1 more start at Aberdeen before being moved to Frederick or Bowie most likely. That said, his stuff is quickly coming back to what it was pre-surgery despite not being even a year removed from going under the knife. According to Keith Law Bundy was sitting 90-94 and reports were good on his secondaries.
Might Bundy be a solution in the ‘pen?
(September 24, 2012 – Source: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America)
Bundy is a serious pitcher, who going into the 2014 season was ranked 19.5 on average among the big 4 prospect lists (ESPN, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com). On three of the four lists he was a top 17 prospect, with only Keith Law bumping him out of the top 25 due to the surgery.
While Bundy is currently being stretched out on the 5 inning/75 pitch plan, it would remain to be seen if he would be shifted into 1-2 inning duties as a reliever or if he’d serve as a swingman/spot starter should he be called up.
The bullpen is an important component of any team with playoff aspirations, and the O’s have a solid foundation to build on. If Rapada and Bundy can join Webb, Britton, O’Day, and McFarland as contributing members of the bullpen, it’ll go a long way to making the club more competitive in the second half of the season.
Jeff was the owner of the Orioles blog Warehouse Worthy, which focused on making advanced statistics a part of the conversation for the average fan. Outside of baseball, Jeff is a graduate of Loyola University where he received his Bachelor’s and Master’s in Business Administration. The Maryland native currently works for an Advertising Agency in downtown Baltimore. Previously a contributor to Beyond the Boxscore, he joined Baseball Prospectus in September 2014. You can reach him at jeff.long@baltimoresportsandlife.com.