CONMEBOL COPA America 2024

In case soccer fans haven’t been getting enough quality matches of late with UEFA Euro Cup 2024 don’t worry. The 3rd largest soccer tournament in the world kicks off this Thursday in Atlanta. For the second time in its storied history, the 2024 version will be held in the United States (also held it in 2016 COPA America Centenario). Typically the tournament has featured all 10 CONMEBOL teams plus two invited teams from other federations. To date 8 of the 10 CONMEBOL nations have won the tournament with Ecuador and Venezuela having failed to do so. Argentina and Uruguay have each won the competition 15 times. The highest finish for a non CONMEBOL team has been Mexico with two runner-up finishes.

This time around, as in 2016, there will be 16 teams split into 4 groups of 4. All 10 CONMEBOL nations plus 6 CONCACAF nations, including the US. Before we take a look at the groups and specifically the USMNT its prudent to take a look at the general rules for the competition.

1. The tournament will use the standard groups of 4 with the top two teams from each group advancing, Teams will play a round robin format playing each of the three teas in their group. Wins will be allocated 3 points, draws 1 point, and 0 points for a loss. If at the end of the Group Stage teams are tied then advancement is determined by a set of tie breakers: Goal differential, goals scored, head-to- head results, fewest red cards, fewest yellow cards, random draw.
2. CONMEBOL has also implemented several rule changes specifically for this tournament.

• The roster size limits were increased from 24 to 26 players.
• Each nation will be given 5 substitutions. While that has become pretty standard post-COVID they have also added a 6th optional substitution that can be used only for a player who suffers a head injury.
• A new Pink Card has been added. which will be displaced if and when one of these head injury substitutions is being made. They have not yet clarified if this card will be shown my the head Referee or some other match official.
• And perhaps the rule change that will have the most impact on the play – During the Knockout Stages all matches tied at the end of regulation will proceed directly to penalty kicks to determine the winner. The exception being the Final which will still use 2 15 minute extra periods. This will be a huge factor for coaches planning the timing of their substitutions and should make the last 10 minutes of a match more exciting. Teams will no longer be playing out the last few minutes of regulation waiting to get to the extra 30 minutes. Of course, the flip side is that weaker teams or those with a great penalty shot stopper will happily air the ball out and take their chances with PKs.

The tournament will be held at the following stadiums/locations. Given that most of these are outdoor stadiums the majority of the matches will be played in the evenings during cooler times of day.

MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ (Will host Semi-Final)
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC (Will host Semi-Final)
Mercedes Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA

Inter&Co Stadium – Orlando, FL
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL (will host the Final)
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX (Will host Quarter-Final)

NRG Stadium – Houston, TX (Will host Quarter-Final)
Q2 Stadium – Austin, TX
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO

Children’s Mercy Park – Kansas City, KS
State Farm Stadium, – Glendale, AZ (Will host Quarter-Final)
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV (Will host Quarter-Final)

SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA

Now one last topic before we dive into the actual teams and that is the draw. Always a topic of discussion around tournaments is the draw and how that may impact things. Fans and experts alike love to debate the so called “Group of Death.”  But in this tournament its quite a bit different in that every team in CONMEBOL participates. That automatically means that there will be at least one if not 2 pretty weak teams in a given group. It also means that its pretty unlikely that more than 2 real top teams get drawn into the same group. And that is just how these groups have shaken out. Really there is no “Group of Death” this time around. One could argue that Group D is the overall hardest group and I wouldn’t debate that. But it hardly fits into what has historically been defined as such a group. Now that doesn’t mean that the draw won’t play a major role in this tournament. It will impact it tremendously and it all started with the tournament directors somehow deciding they should seed Mexico in Pot 1 over Columbia even though the Columbians were ranked higher. And it all rolled down hill after that. Two bad things, from the perspective of US fans, resulted from this.

1. Mexico got by far the best draw they could have gotten. Along with Argentina (and they are ranked #1 in the world) they got a group that doesn’t have another team ranked in the top 30.
2. But the really unfortunate result is how the groups unfolded as to the Knockout Stage. Groups A and B were aligned together and Groups C and D were aligned. Standard tournament setup. But by the luck of the draw 4 of the top 6 teams all ended up in Groups C and D and only 2 ended up in Groups A and B. Giving Argentina and Mexico easy paths to the semi-finals. They won’t have to play a top team in group play or the quarter-finals. The US wasn’t so fortunate. But no excuses you have to beat the teams in front of you. However, to be clear just be careful when you read some experts with their post tournament analysis. If you read a headline saying Mexico does better than the US in COPA 2024 dig a little deeper. Anything short of getting to the semis for Mexico should be considered a failure. Whereas the US really should be judged on their play in the group. More on that later.

With that backdrop lets take a look at the Group Stage and set some expectations.

Group A

Composite FIFA Ranking – 124

An interesting group in that it should be a battle for 2nd with any of the three teams not named Argentina in the mix. There really is no battle for first as Argentina not easily winning this group would be an epic upset.

Argentina (1) – You can debate FIFA rankings all day long but Argentina are the defending COPA America and World Cup champions. Sure they are aging a bit as they infuse new, younger talent but every major oddsmaker has them as the favorites. When Lionel Messi steps on the field Thursday night he will be come the all time leader in caps for COPA America. And this could be, along with Angel di Maria, their last major tournament. Messi turns 37 during the tournament and di Maria is 36. But its only two years till WC 2026 and maybe they make that one. Note that di Maria scored the winning goal in the last COPA and Messi simply loves playing in the US (he’s tied for the MLS lead in goals + assists playing in Miami. Guess where the Argentina’s last Group Stage match is being played? Yup. Miami. Guess where the COPA final is being played? Yup. Miami. With such an easy draw they should be well rested for a likely semi-final match against Mexico. There are lots of reasons the oddsmakers like Argentina to win it all. So do I.

Canada (49) – A bit like Mexico in that they got a really good draw all things considered. They do have Alphonso Davies (named team captain today by new head coach Jesse Marsch) who plays LB for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga and Jonathan David who plays striker for Ligue 1 side Lille. He scored 19 goals in 34 appearances this past club season. Those two will have to shine and get some help from other teams in the group to hope to advance.

Chile (42) – The Chileans are going to rely on two long time and outstanding veterans in Alexis Sanchez (striker for Inter Milan) and Claudio Bravo (goalkeeper for Real Betis). Both are coming off seasons where the played limited minutes but they have the experience and smarts to give Chile a good shot withing this group. Sanchez, is after all the all time leading Chilean goal scorer. Fore the record, Chile won the COPA the last time it was held in the US. Can they find some magic once more?

Peru (32) – Well first the bad news for the Peruvian side. They have been very inconsistent the last several years and have not played well thus far in CONMEBOL WC qualifying having just 2 draws in their five matches to date. They will need some offensive production from left winger Edison Flores to have a chance to advance. They also have the all time leading Peruvian goal scored in Paolo Guerrero but at age 40 can he really provide much this time around? Still if their defense holds together they have a decent shot to advance.

Prediction – Argentina wins the group. No surprise there. But I am going against the odds here and picking Canada to take second. I think they have just enough and may have some crowd support to get them over the top.

Group B

Composite FIFA Ranking – 154

Just to reiterate an earlier point. No excuse for Mexico not winning this group and in fact if they don’t advance they will fire their coach. No question. The Mexican Federation is always quick to pull the trigger and they will again if they see faltering in this tournament.

Ecuador ( 31) – Next to Mexico one of the happiest teams watching the draw. They got the lowest ranked team from Pot 1 and some fairly easy sides from Pots 3 and 4. They advanced out of the group in the last COPA and have high hopes to do so again. Their strength is defensively and they have Moises Caicedo (Chelase dmid) leading the way. He is capable of shutting down most attackers and will be a force to reckon with him. Especially in a group where we don’t expect to see a lot of goals scored. More on that shortly.

Jamaica (55) – The Reggae Boyz have their usual things going for them. The have a set of front runners that are fast and athletic. They won’t maintain a lot of possession but when they do get the ball look out. They will counter with speed and run straight at you and the guy leading that charge will be Michail Antonio (forward, West Ham United), Antonio can be scary good at times. If he’s on his game he’ll be a handful. And at the other end of the field tending the nets is Andre Blake. One of the top MLS goalkeepers, Blake has the ability to completely shut down attacks.

Mexico (14) – Not much more to say about El Tri except that a couple of top players are not with the team. Forwards Hirving “Chucky” Lozano and Raul Jiminez and keeper Memo Ochoa are not included. For Mexican fans its time to see if Julian Quinones is the striker they are looking for? Bottom line. They should advance but they better play a lot better than they did in their tune up matches!

Venezuela (54) – Just no way to get around this one. They are young and inexperienced. Nine rostered players have 10 or fewer caps. The flip side though is they may play like they have nothing to lose. Expectations are that they don’t advance so just go out and have fun and see what happens. For them to have any shot to move on they need keeper Rafael Romo the have an outstanding tournament and even then they will need some help from other teams in the group for things to shake out just right.

Prediction – Mexico wins the group and Ecuador takes second. But pulling for the Reggae Boyz!

Group D

Composite FIFA Ranking – 125

Ok bear with me here. Going to skip over to Group D and save the best group for last so we can infuse a bit more detail for each US match. Besides this group is pretty easy to predict.

Brazil (5) – First start with Neymar. He’s out with an injury. And thats too bad cause he’s such a talent and fun to watch, even if he’s a flopper. But they are loaded with talent across the field. Starting with winger Vinicious Junior. The Real Madrid star is coming off a 15 goal club season and is ready to roll. He will provide a tough test for opposing right backs and defensive midfielders. And Vini Jr has his clubmate and right winger Rodrygo there as well coming off a 10 goal season. And those two lead Real Madrid to the UCL Championship last month and are hungry for more. Sitting behind those two as the attacking midfielder is West Ham stud Lucas Paqueta who tallied 4 goals and 6 assists this past season. That’s a handful for opposing defenses for sure. The Selecao’s are looking for a 10th COPA title and to avenge their loss to Argentina last time around.

Colombia (12) – Probably the team most screwed by the draw as they likely should have been in Pot 1 instead of Mexico. Now that said they did get a favorable draw in that the they did draw 2 weaker teams from Pots 3 and 4. After failing to qualify for WC 2022 they fired their manager and hired Nestor Lorenzo in June of that year. In his first match leading Los Cafeteros’ they narrowly beat Saudi Arabia 1-0 and they have gone on to a jaw dropping 19 match unbeaten streak including wins over Brazil and Spain. And in WC 2026 qualifying they have started out a superbly with a 6 game unbeaten streak,. Don’t look past this team. Lorenzo has named long time star James Rodriguez as the team captain and James will provide some veteran leadership on the field even if his playing is past his prime. But when you are watching them attack keep your eye on left winger Luis Diaz. The Liverpool start is a handful.

Costa Rica (52) – The Tico’s are just not the same side that they were just a few short years ago. Just a handful of years ago things looked bright with Joel Campbell making scoring noise and perhaps becoming a big star. But his career has floundered the last 5 years and he is now relegated to playing in their domestic league. Not quite the level as the one time Arsenal prospect hoped to be playing at. Still, he is the leading CR goal scorer on the current team with 27 goals in 132 caps. But at the end of the day for the Ticos to advance it will be in the hands of Kaylor Navas, the backup keeper at PSG. Navas is still one of the all time top keepers in CONCACAD. And as down as they have been in their last friendly leading up to this tournament they drew a very tough Uruguay 0-0. So there is a glimmer of hope.

Paraguay(56) – Talk about coming in on a down note, well that’s the Paraguayans! They have lost 3 of their 5 WC qualifiers and have really struggled to score goals., Still with Newcastle United’s Miguel Almiron who is just 2 seasons removed from am 11 goal season. But he fell off this past year to a mere 3 goals in his future is in doubt. They will need 2023 Almiron and not 2024’s.

Prediction – Brazil easily wins this group although Columbia could push them. Columbia takes second. Anything other than Brazil and Columbia advancing would be a huge shock.

Group C

Composite FIFA Ranking – 156

Of course the group most of us have the most interest in and for good reason. The USMNT is looking to advance out of the group like they did in WC 2022 and its being played on our home soil. Even though llthe draw did the US no favors its more of a detriment for the Knockout Stage than the Group Stage.

Bolivia (85) – The Bolivians come in the lowest ranked team in the tournament and not having high expectations. They have only won 1 COPA match since 1999 and none since 2015. Not to upset any Bolivian fans reading this but their best hope to earn any points at all is against Panama and it wouldn’t be a shock at all if they lose all three Group Stage matches.

Panama ((45) – The other dark house of the group. Panama did make the final of the 2023 Gold Cup losing to Mexico. There were a lot of reasons for that but suffice it to say that a number of nations chose to send their B/C teams to that competition. Panama didn’t qualify for WC 2022 and if you recall their loss to the US in Orlando was the qualifying match that basically earned the US their ticket to Qatar. The packed house in Orlando that night had plenty to cheer for as the US spanked the Panamanians 5-1. Panama’s best hope for some highlights this time will be on Monday July 1st when they play Bolivia. Don’t be surprised though if the group has been decided before then and Panama and Bolivia are playing for national pride.

United States (11) – The big question for the Stars and Stripes is which team will show up.? The one that was totally embarrassed 5-1 by Colombia or the one that went toe-to-toe with Brazil and drew 1-1? Those two matches were so different you could write an entire essay on them. Suffice it to say the Columbia match was marred by a bunch of stupid turnovers and Colombia made them pay,. And after that match the demeanor of US fans was pretty low and we were wondering if we would even survive our group,. Then came the Brazil match. Night and day difference in fact if you looked at the Xg for shots on frame the US was actually the better team! So heading into COPA things are looking fine. Mostly healthy and a group they should be able to advance out of . But then comes the real difficulties. As mentioned earlier in the discussion of the draw, the US would most likely face either Brazil or Colombia in the quarter-finals. Both a very tough match (for them too!). Still lets get out of the group and then worry about what’s next.

Uruguay (15) – One of the main reasons team fear playing Uruguay these days started a year ago May when they announced that Marcelo Bielsa was taken the reigns as the head coach. Bielsa is one of the top all time tacticians in the sport and always has a solid counter punch for anything opposing coaches throw at him. He’s good. Really good., Add in star players like Liverpool striker Darwin Nunez and Inter Miami forward Luis Suarez and you have a terrific combination. This team has the ability to make a deep run in this tournament. But like the US, Brazil, and Colombia they got a bit screwed by the draw. Shame that all the really top quality knockout matches will be on the C/D side of the bracket.

Prediction – The US and Uruguay advance. The US falling short would be a major disappointment and perhaps lead to a coaching change?

Now lets look at the base US formation and lineup and how the matches may be managed.

The US under coach Gregg Berhalter has routinely played a 4-3-3 formation and we will see the same thing for COPA America 2024. However, if practice when on the attack it plays more like a 3-5-2 with the outside backs moving forward to provide width and overlap opportunities with the wingers. In defending at least one of the attacking midfielders will drop back to pair with the defensive midfielder for defensive depth. Its not complicated but it does require constant communication between the players to ensure everybody is on the same page.  Given the current player availability I think this is what we will see in the first match against Bolivia. Send our your best XI and start out with 3 points. With Sergino Dest out it seems like Joe Scally has cemented his spot at right back and Johnny Cardoso (or perhaps Yunas Musah) will man the dmid positiion until Tyler Adams is fully fit.  If we can build a comfortable lead then I think the following second half subs are likely.

Tyler Adams for Johnny Cardoso/Yunas Musah

Shaw Moore for Joe Scally

Brendan Aaronson for Gio Reyna

Ricardo Pepi/Haji Wright for Folarin Balogun

Then assuming we get the 3 points against Bolivia and any injuries or cards given in that match against Panama I see the same general lineup with these starting changes:

Miles Robinson for Tim Ream.

Yunas Musah or Luca de la Torre for Johnny Cardoso.

Ricardo Pepi for Folarin Balogun

Then the subs in the second half:

Malik Tillman for Christian Pulisic

Josh Sargent for Tim Weah or Ricardo Pepi

Kristoffer Lund for Antonee Robinson

Cameron Carter-Vickers for Chris Richards.

Tyler Adams for Dmid.

Then for the final Group Stage match against Uruguay it will all depend on fitness, cards, and if we need points.

If we need to get a result then I go back to the starting XI used against Bolivia with the exception of starting Tyler Adams. If not then play as many subs as guys need rest before the quarter-finals that you think you can get away with.

So there is is and it all starts this Thursday and just like for Euro 2024 all the matches will be shown on the Fox family of channels.,

I BELEIVE THAT WE WILL WIN!

I BELEIVE THAT WE WILL WIN!

I BELEIVE THAT WE WILL WIN!