Deal of the Decade: Uehara for Hunter & Davis

The Orioles made one of, if not the most lopsided trades in the first decade of the new millennium. Now, there are some that say they’ve made the most lopsided trade of this second decade as well. There have been a few other articles recently that took a look back at how Chris Davis got to where he is today.

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On the back of his scorching hot start to this season, it makes sense for media and fans alike to want to look into how he became a superstar in Baltimore. Looking back at these kinds of trades can be foolish because obviously nobody knew how they would turn out at the time. However, there can be small nuggets of gold to be found, you just have to look in the right places.

Galloway writes:

Twenty-two months ago, facing the trading deadline of July, 2011, Daniels shipped off to Baltimore a then-failed first baseman named Chris Davis and a then so-so pitcher named Tommy Hunter.

In return, the O’s gave the Texas Rangers what was expected to be much needed bullpen help, right hander Koji Uehara.

Galloway though isn’t writing to crush Daniels for making a deal that, in hindsight, was less than balanced. In fact, quite the opposite. Galloway continues:

This deal is obviously a massive skid mark on Daniels’ résumé, but I haven’t noticed any media second-guessing, and the second-guessing will definitely not start today from here.

Daniels made that trade for all the right reasons. Actually, it was for only one reason.

He was going for it.

The previous season the Rangers had made a deep playoff run that resulted in a crushing loss to the San Francisco Giants in the World Series. The Rangers were looking to take another shot at winning in October, so they made a move that they felt would help them do that. The logic there is sound, and Galloway is using that example to justify moving another well-regarded prospect for short term help.

Buster Olney recently exchanged e-mails with Rangers GM Jon Daniels who stands by the process that lead them to trading Davis and Hunter. Daniels said, “The result is obviously not in our favor, but the process wasn’t bad”. This is partially true, but I have a bone to pick with the GM on this one.

For the sake of this article we’ll focus on Davis, as he was the centerpiece of the offer on Texas’ side. Keep in mind though that Hunter has seen some success (albeit fairly luck-enhanced) this season pitching out of the bullpen. I’d never suggest that Hunter could approximate the performance Koji put together in 2011, but it is somewhat ironic that he’s now become a solid bullpen option for the O’s.

Davis and Hunter were available at the trade deadline in 2011 because Texas was unable to see some of the successes the pair had in the minors with the big league club. We’re talking about Chris Davis who, as a minor leaguer boasts a career triple slash of .318/.375/.597. We’re talking about Chris Davis who, as a 25 year old in AAA hit .368/.405/.824.

Texas had given Davis plenty of chances to succeed in the majors, but he was never able to bring those minor league stats with him to the MLB level. Davis received 317 PA in his age-22 season, 419 PA in 2009 as a 23 year old, but just 120 in 2010 and 81 in 2011 before the trade.

Texas Rangers fans often compared Davis to another Texas slugger: Nelson Cruz. Cruz was the classic example of a late bloomer, a powerful outfielder who struggled with strikeouts before putting it all together later in his career. Early on, the Rangers made the same mistake with Cruz. He hit just .223 in 2006 over 143 PA, without regular at-bats. Cruz saw his WAR improve each year from 2008 to 2010 though as his playing time became more regular and he no longer worried about being sent down after a bad stretch of games.

It is my belief (and this is undoubtedly arguable) that strikeout-prone hitters like Davis or Cruz require more and regular playing time in order to iron out the kinks with their swings. There’s been plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest this might be the case, but no formal research on it (to my knowledge).

One of the principle reasons that Davis’ breakout came in Baltimore rather than Texas is because the Orioles were willing and able to give Davis consistent playing time, without the constant threat of demotion. With more consistent at-bats against Major League pitching, Davis was able to identify and correct any issues he may have had that weren’t being tested in AAA. Davis could have a day like he did on May 6th against Boston (5 Ks, GIDP, 1 pitching Win) and not be worried that he would be riding a bus to his next game.

You can argue that the process of moving Davis and Hunter for someone who could help the MLB club win a World Series was not flawed. I would agree with you, and I think that it was in fact, the right thing to do for the team at the time.

I would argue however, that Davis could have easily replicated and even improved on Mitch Moreland’s .259/.320/.414 triple slash in 2011; especially considering Moreland hit just .241 in the second half. The process that lead to Chris Davis toiling away posting multiple years of 1.000+ OPSs in AAA was flawed. The process that saw Davis as expendable (though Daniels would argue that he wasn’t) was flawed. This isn’t about prospects vs. established veterans or even moving promising young players for potential playoff runs. It’s about putting young players in positions to allow them to succeed. It’s about giving guys a chance even after they’ve scuffled a bit.

Ultimately it’s a bit of a moot point. Texas’ loss is Baltimore’s gain, as Chris Davis has been one of the most impactful players in baseball this season. Baltimore may have pulled off another one of those decade-defining moves where the team acquires a late-inning arm and potential MVP for an 8th-inning guy. The reason this could be a decade-defining move though? That would be because Baltimore put Davis and Hunter in positions where they could succeed.