Last year I wrote a piece called Defining Success For The 2020 Baltimore Orioles. The piece was about what a successful season would look like for the 2020 Baltimore Orioles. Sometimes there is truth in advertising. That piece came out on February 29th and oh wow did things go sideways after that. The end result though, at least as far as Orioles’ expectations were concerned, wasn’t that different. Yes, the season was much shorter, the standings were flukier, and opportunities for player development were fewer, but ultimately success had to be measured in the same way, even under those circumstances. 

The 2021 season will be different than any that has come before it. We are still in a pandemic and though there are positive signs when it comes to COVID-19, things aren’t likely to change drastically in the near future. A successful season for the 2021 Baltimore Orioles though won’t be all that different than it was last season. This is still a rebuilding team and a rebuilding organization. Success can come on the field, but it won’t be measured there. It’s not that it doesn’t matter whether the Orioles go 50-112, or 81-81, it does. Winning is good. It’s good for players, it keeps morale up, and playing meaningful games is a way to teach young players both expectations and give them experience performing when the lights are brightest. It’s that, as far as the Orioles organization goes, they are thinking long term. A successful season for the Orioles is whatever helps get them where they want to go in the future.

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Because of that focus on the long term over the near or short term, the Orioles are not trying to make the playoffs this season. That much was clear when they traded shortstop Jose Iglesias to the Angels, or later in the off-season, when they reunited him with Alex Cobb in Los Angeles. Neither was a win-now move, nor would you expect the O’s to make win-now moves. The Orioles are in the business of making win-later moves. This is all in attempt to build up the total talent level in the organization, and to do so for the long term. Players who can help the Orioles win baseball games in 2021 and only 2021 are of better use when traded for players who can be a part of the organization for many years. 

I mention all this because this is a key part of a successful 2021 season, turning ‘now’ talent into future talent. The only players with more than three years of service time right now are Trey Mancini, Yolmer Sanchez, Freddy Galvis, and Chris Davis. Expect any and all to be available in trades closer to the deadline. Turning one or more of those players into minor league talent (not minor league players but actual talent) is absolutely a goal. 

Beyond that, the Orioles need to harvest the young talent they have on the major league roster. That does not start with their two Rule 5 guys, but that’s an easy beginning point here. Mac Sceroler and Tyler Wells are both fringe starter types with various things they are good at and some points to work on. I applaud the Orioles making two picks, one of only two teams to do so. Typically spending two roster spots on Rule 5 guys might not make sense, but it’s an opportunity to improve the talent base in the organization and the O’s took it. So develop those two players, figure out what you have with them, and if they can help long term, and at the cost of two major league roster spots, they’re a bargain.


Far more important though are current Orioles who are also future Orioles. Those would be Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, DJ Stewart, Anthony Santander, Keenan Akin, Dean Kremer, and John Means. There are other players on the roster who could amount to something, but those are the future talent, and it isn’t a stretch to see a way each of them contributes to a championship level team in the future. Not all will be though. Sort them out. Learn their strengths. Improve them. Learn their faults. Minimize them. Or learn if they don’t fit with the organization for some reason and move them for value. Those players are the core of any success plan the organization has on the major league roster, so their development is paramount to any successful season.

Off the major league roster is probably even more important though. The Orioles farm system has grown under GM Mike Elias. Baltimore has five prospects in Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101 and all of them are ranked 66th or higher. Only the Marlins, Mariners, and Rays have more on the list. MLB Pipeline has the same five prospects ranked in their Top 100. It’s an impressive system, and any successful season for the Orioles organization is going to involve the development and improvement of those five players because, even more than the guys currently on the major league roster, those five are of premium importance to the future of the team and its championship aspirations. 

And finally, as I wrote a year ago, there is the MLB draft. The Orioles pick fifth overall and there will be some impressive talents available. Like last summer’s draft, we won’t know how it turned out for years, but that doesn’t make it any less impactful. The Orioles get another crack at this when the draft rolls around again this summer. 

Until then, the focus will be on the fields, both in Baltimore, where the talent has started to percolate up to the major league roster, and in Norfolk, Bowie, Aberdeen, and Delmarva, where the Orioles of the future will be honing their skills this summer (we hope). With any luck, this season will go well for Orioles fans in all the ways detailed above, and next season will offer something more than player development, an actual shot at a playoff spot. But until then, there are some fun players already in Baltimore to follow, and of course keep checking the minor league box scores and YouTube video highlight packages. The summer is coming quickly. 

Matthew Kory
Matthew Kory

Orioles Analyst

Matthew Kory is a Orioles / MLB Analyst for BSL. He has covered baseball professionally for The Athletic, Vice Sports, Sports On Earth, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. He lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife, two boys, and his cats, Mini Squeaks and The President. Co-Host of The Warehouse.

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