It’s always difficult to lose. No fan, no matter where a team is expected to be in the standings or if they are in the middle of a rebuild, wants to see their team lose. Players, no matter how young or old, play to win. A Manager’s job security is ultimately predicated on his win total. The 2020 Orioles gave fans some hope of a surprise season early on, but that initial sprint has drastically slowed. Over the past two weeks, the club is just 3-11, clearly taking them out of the expanded playoff picture.
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Yes, the losing is difficult. And, it is easy to feel like this is yet just another losing season.
But, the last 14 games was well timed for a couple of reasons.
First, it did free General Manager Mike Elias from the debate about trading off veterans when his team was technically in contention. While one gets the feeling that Elias would’ve stuck to his plan of selling off veterans for his long term rebuild, it’s a much more difficult sell to long suffering fans who are desperate for a pennant race and could’ve legitimately hoped for that in this 60 game season. And, secondly, it frees up the organization to truly deploy their young talent for the remaining games with the sole focus of allowing them to gain Major League experience.
So, yes, the last two weeks haven’t been great Manager Brandon Hyde’s win/loss record. But, there have been quite a few positive developments that give the organization and its fans both hope for a fun, meaningful September and the hope that organization is continuing to accumulate young talent to build a sustainable future.
Positive: Givens Trade
Michael Givens gave the Orioles six very solid seasons of relief work. During his six seasons with the Orioles, he appeared in 296 games, accumulating 336 innings and striking out 406 batters. His 3.32 ERA (3.40 FIP) was solid, but his 129 walks allowed and 35 home runs allowed weren’t exactly elite and that of a lockdown reliever. It also appeared that his results were declining over the past two seasons. During the 2018-2019 seasons, he appeared in 127 games, saving 20 of them. But during those 139.2 innings, he allowed 3.6 walks per nine innings and 7.1 hits per nine innings. The 3.71 FIP indicates that he pitched better than his 4.25 ERA during that span, but, again, these are not numbers of an elite reliever.
In his 12 appearances this season, he pitched 13 innings, allowing 7 hits, 2 runs, 6 walks, and 19 strikeouts. Again, very good, but not elite.
So, while Givens was a solid reliever during both the good and bad times in recent Orioles’ history, the 30 year old with declining results was traded to the Colorado Rockies on Sunday for a pair of intriguing prospects and a player to be named later. The two intriguing prospects, Tyler Nevin and Terrin Vavra, were ranked, respectively, as the 14th and 7th prospect in the Rockies farm system. This is quite a haul in exchange for a 30 year old middle reliever.
Tyler Nevin is the son of former Major Leaguer Phil Nevin, who played 12 seasons in the Major Leagues and is now a coach on the New York Yankees staff. Tyler Nevin, is a 23 year old right handed hitter who profiles as a first baseman after experimenting in the outfield last year in double-A ball. Drafted as an 18 year old in the 2015 draft (round 1, pick 38), Nevin has demonstrated that he can get on base, as his career .362 OBP indicates. The home run power hasn’t developed yet, but in 1,362 career at bats, he has hit 88 doubles, 7 triples, and 35 home runs. According to a quick read of various prospect write ups, the consensus is that he has the ability to be a home run hitter and that it just hasn’t quite translated to on field results yet. Perhaps the most intriguing thing about Nevin is that he hasn’t struggled at any level of professional baseball. He hasn’t had that breakout season, but he hasn’t been overwhelmed at any level.
Terrin Vavra is also an interesting return and comes with Major League pedigree as his Father is a hitting coach for the Detroit Tigers. The middle infielder, who bats from the left side, was a third round selection in the 2018 draft. Since arriving in professional baseball, Vavra has posted a .313/.405/.483 slash line in his 146 career games at the low-A and single-A levels along with 40 doubles, 5 triples, and 14 home runs. The numbers are almost identical to his 140 career college games (.349/.410/.507), indicating that his ability to get on base is clearly a big part of his game. Like Nevin, Vavra is 23 years old and hasn’t struggled in his transition to professional baseball.
It is easy to write about prospects and the hope of the future. Truthfully, none of that matters as most prospects do fail to live up to the advanced billing. And, despite interesting pedigrees and a great starts to their careers, nobody knows if Nevin and Vavra will produce at the Major League level. But, this is quite a haul for the Orioles. They traded a middle reliever for two higher end prospects and a player to named later. Both prospects come with high on base skills, a skill that usually translates well to the Major Leagues. Both come without any struggle in their professional careers. Mike Elias capitalized on a Rockies’ team desperate to make the playoffs and made them overpay. It was a forgone conclusion that Elias would move Givens, but nobody expected a return like this.
Positive: Milone Trade
Before the Givens trade, Elias spun a deal to send veteran Tommy Milone to the Atlanta Braves for two players to be named later. Because neither player is in the Braves’ player pool, they won’t be announced until the end of the season. No matter who they are and no matter how liked Milone is, this is yet another outstanding trade for the Orioles.
While Milone was fun to watch during his six starts as an Oriole, let’s put this into some perspective. He was signed to a Minor League contract with an invitation to Spring Training. He hasn’t posted a FIP under 5.00 since 2015 and he hasn’t posted a FIP under 4.00 since his first full professional season in 2012. He is the epitome of a Major League journeyman who is dependent on pinpoint control and can, at best, be a league average pitcher. And, he hasn’t demonstrated that ability over the course of any full season. But, Milone deserves credit. He is a 10 year veteran who has shown an ability to survive in Major League Baseball with a great use of his changeup. It’s just that teams don’t usually trade for players with this resume. In a normal season, this type of trade likely doesn’t happen. But, 2020, well, anything seems possible.
Elias capitalized on the Braves’ desperation to add a starter and will get two players in return. In addition to that, the Orioles seem to be finally giving Keegan Akin the rotation spot for the rest of the year. This trade and the resulting move of Akin to gain a month’s experience is most definitely a win for the organization.
Positive: Mountcastle
It finally happened.
The Orioles promoted Ryan Mountcastle to the Major Leagues on August 21st. In his eight games, the 23 year old has gone 11 for 28, including 2 doubles, 2 home runs, the latter coming on Sunday. He’s had a hit in six of his eight games and has had multiple hits in four games. It has been an even better start than the clamoring Orioles fans could ever imagine as the young hitter has displayed patience at the plate (4 walks) and has just 6 strikeouts, none of which have come during his last three games.
There will be struggles, but Mountcastle has produced as advertised early on. Other prospects throughout the sport haven’t just stepped right in. September will be an interesting month for Mountcastle as the league will most certainly adjust to him and how he continues to improve as an outfielder. But, seeing him in the everyday Major League lineup is nothing but positive for the Orioles’ long term plans.
Positive: Harvey and Akin Back
Perhaps even more exciting than the two trades was the announcement that 25 year old right hander Hunter Harvey was activated from the disabled list. Sure, he struggled in his season debut against the Blue Jays, but the hope is that Harvey can claim the closer role, get a month’s worth of positive experience and build on that for the long term.
And, as mentioned in the Milone trade, Keegan Akin was recalled and will most likely start Monday’s series finale against the Blue Jays. Like Harvey and Mountcastle, this final month to the season is about getting these young players Major League experience. The Orioles have been careful with Akin, holding him off the Major League roster for most of the season. Now, they can insert him into the rotation and allow him to experience Major League life.
Positive: Catchers
This may not be as exciting as the trades and young players developing, but the Orioles catching tandem of Pedro Severino and Chance Sisco have quietly been one of the more productive duos in the sport. Severino has appeared in 26 games, slashing .303/.380/.517 with 3 doubles, 5 home runs, and 20 RBI. Sisco has appeared in 22 games, slashing .245/.412/.509 with 2 doubles and 4 home runs. Combined, both catchers have walked 23 times.
While neither will get headlines and everyone is waiting for Uber-prospect Adley Rutschman to get to the bigs, the current catcher tandem has done quite well.
Positive: Brandon Hyde
This goes beyond the field. Hyde’s raw emotion during his press conference was something so few Managers display. Last Wednesday, the NBA and many Major League Baseball teams chose to not play as a protest for the shooting of Jacob Blake. The Orioles were moments away from first pitch when Hyde met with his players. At first, the game was going to be played, but the Orioles, as most professional teams decided, then chose not to play. Hyde then had the task of speaking to the media. This is where true leadership was on display.
Hyde spoke openly about the privilege of growing up as a white male and how his number one role was to listen and learn from his players on this issue. He didn’t hide behind the idea of a private team meeting. He spoke his support for his players’ decision to not play a baseball game. And, later, his players spoke of how appreciative they were of their Manager and his willingness to listen and support.
We can sometimes look at sports strictly through the lens of wins and losses. But, as we are seeing, sports can and should be more. It can make a bold statement and join the fight for true equal rights for everyone. And, until everyone’s life matters equally, the institution of sports should continue to fight against racism. Brandon Hyde not only supported his players decision, he listened and, most importantly, showed his compassion for all of his players.
Hanser’s Week
In what has become one of my favorite things to check, Hanser Alberto just keeps hitting. In his five games last week, Alberto went 9 for 20 (all 9 hits were singles), walked once, scored five runs, and didn’t strikeout.
20.5
I was feeling pretty confident about this number and I still am. The club needs to win just 7 games over the rest of the season to cover this over/under. That should still happen, right?
Orioles Analyst
First and foremost, a Father. After that, I am a writer and teacher who not only started my own company and published an i-magazine as well as a newsletter, but have been published by USA Today, Operation Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Digest, Gotham Baseball Magazine, and numerous other publications. As an educator, I have 20 years of classroom experience and am utilizing that experience in my current position as department coordinator. Wrote the book The Teacher And The Admin (https://theteacherandtheadmin.com/the-book/) and operate that website which is dedicated to making education better for kids.