Down on the Farm – August 16, 2021

Welcome to ‘Down on the Farm’, a minor league spin-off of my weekly article ‘3 Up, 3 Down’. Every week I will highlight the three hottest and three coldest players in the Orioles minor league system from the previous week. Hopefully this will help in keeping track of the progress of the prospects playing for the Norfolk Tide, Bowie Baysox, Aberdeen Ironbirds, and Delmarva Shorebirds. Also be sure to check out my threads on the message board that are tracking both pitching and hitting statistics for the Orioles top prospects.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

On Fire

Kyle Bradish – 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 8 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 12 K, 0.63 WHIP (AAA Norfolk)

All it took for Bradish to go back to the pitcher he was in AA Bowie to start the season was to have his personal catcher back. In Adley Rutschman’s first game after being promoted to AAA Norfolk he caught a one hit shutout and suddenly the pitching was much better over the course of the week. Nobody benefitted more from the best prospect in baseball being behind the plate than Bradish who suddenly found his command and was getting tons of swings and misses. Obviously its short sample size and incredibly hard to tell how much difference a catcher is making on a pitching staff but all signs point to that skill maybe being one of Adley’s best and the most underrated aspect of his game. It wasn’t just Bradish who had a good week. Bruce Zimmermann pitching five hitless innings in his final rehab appearance (before spraining his ankle lifting weights… that’s so O’s), Michael Baumann only gave up one run over four innings despite six walks, and Dean Kremer suddenly looked like a competent pitcher again also only giving up one run over four innings. RHP’s Cody Sedlock and Blaine Knight were both promoted to Norfolk today so we will have more test cases for this theory since both of those guys suddenly pitched poorly with him gone from AA Bowie. Grayson Rodriguez pitched five shutout innings with eight strikeouts without him but just think of what he would’ve done with his buddy back there! I’m interested to see how Bradish finishes the season because I am still high on his prospects of being a mid-rotation starter for the Orioles long term.

Rylan Bannon – .500/.632/1.643 (2.274), 6 R, 1 double, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 5 BB, 2 K, 14 AB (AAA Norfolk)

Coming into this week Bannon had a batting average of .130 something and an OPS that started with a four. If this was the first week of the minor league season and he performed like this fans would be demanding that he take over at third base for the Orioles but as is he raised his batting average to .165 and his OPS to .653 on the season. That is still just a 64 wRC+ but another couple of good weeks and he might still get a look in Baltimore for September since he is already on the 40 man roster and it’s a “what have you done for me lately” situation. The fact that the Orioles are running Maikel Franco out there every day doesn’t hurt his case either. It is still crazy to me just how bad he was for the first three months of the season. He had success in AAA when he got a taste of it at the tail end of the 2019 season and performed well at the Arizona Fall League but looked lost all year long. I know he went on the injured list for a while towards the beginning of the season and maybe it was something he tried to play through and then rushed back from but he appears to be healthy now. He has six weeks to try and redeem his season and stay on the Orioles radar as someone who can help them long term as they try to turn this ship around.

Zach Watson – .444/.421/1.167 (1.588), 6 R, 1 double, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB, 18 AB (AA Bowie)

Watson is 3-4” taller than me and 20 pounds lighter according to his player page on FanGraphs, that makes him very skinny. Yet he is behind only Adley Rutschman for the organizational lead in homeruns with 16 between high A Aberdeen and AA Bowie. When he was promoted from the Ironbirds he was a league average hitter (97 wRC+) and solid defender at all three outfield positions. Since then he has become a masher with a 132 wRC+ and .312 ISO. That’s the magic of Baysox hitting coach Ryan Fuller who told us that Watson was really learning to tap into some high exit velocity contact when we talked to him for ‘On the Verge’ a few weeks ago. I doubt he can keep his batting average much above .250 but even so if he is able to provide some real pop with his bat to go with above average defense that is a role that can be valuable for a big league team. Just ask Ryan McKenna. The outfield depth in the Orioles system is a sight to see from top to bottom and that is before 2020’s first round pick Heston Kjerstad even makes his professional debut. Between Watson, Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Kyle Stowers, Hudson Haskin, Yusniel Diaz, Robert Neustrom, Reed Trimble, John Rhodes, Johnny Rizer, Donta’ Williams, Trendon Craig, Lamar Sparks, and the guys on the major league roster already like Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, and McKenna you have to think the Orioles will be able to put together something special out there in a couple years and should have plenty of leftovers to move for improvements in other areas. The Orioles are ranked the number one farm system by FanGraphs and number two by Baseball America in the latest updates. As long as they augment the major league team with signings and trades properly I think Orioles fans are going to be surprised how fast this train gets moving in the other direction.

Ice Cold

Jahmai Jones – .158/.158/.211 (.368), 1 R, 1 double, 1 RBI, 19 AB (AAA Norfolk)

We’re a long way from when the “promote Jahmai Jones” chants started on Orioles Twitter. You still see it occasionally but unfortunately it appears Mike Elias and the Orioles had a little more information on the readiness of the second base prospect acquired from the Angels in the offseason for starting pitcher Alex Cobb. He still has good tools that could develop into an everyday second baseman or at least a quality utility player who can play second and the outfield as well. He flashes good plate discipline, some power, and the ability to get hits in bunches but the consistency at the plate and in the field is the last piece of the puzzle. He is now batting .239 with a .736 OPS for AAA Norfolk on the season with a 97 wRC+. He was on fire early in the season between a stint on the injured list and then hit .240 with a .749 OPS in July. Over 47 at bats in August he is hitting just .170 with a .396 OPS. I still think he will make his Orioles debut (not his major league debut, he saw limited time with the Angels last year) before the season is over but it makes sense to wait at this point until he is hitting the ball well again. With players like Jordan Westburg, Terrin Vavra, and Connor Norby moving up behind him he will have a fairly limited time to stake his claim as the starting second baseman.

Yorkislandy Alvarez – .143/.294/.143 (.437), 3 R, 1 RBI, 1 SB, 14 AB (A Delmarva)

Alvarez is an interesting prospect. He has essentially zero power. He is dead last in the Orioles organization in ISO for players with at least 100 plate appearances at .026. The three next lowest are AJ Graffanino (.042), Ryan Ripken (.072), and Ryne Ogren (.079). At the same time he has the 11^th highest walk percentage under the same parameters (14%) and by far the best strikeout percentage (8.1%) – the second best being Adley Rutschman with 15.8%. So he has no power, doesn’t strikeout, and has good plate discipline but unlike Darell Hernaiz, who has similar skills, he is two years older and doesn’t have as much room to grow into any power. He could become an interesting prospect if he had a plus hit tool like a Luis Arraez or Nick Madrigal but that isn’t the case. His BABIP is a little low (.286) for the minor leagues but not significantly so. He only has two steals so its not like he is a speedster that can do damage on the basepaths. After a rough week at the plate he is now hitting .259 on the season with a .652 OPS. With a bevy of promotions coming from the FCL this week I fear that Alvarez could be a roster casualty despite being an interesting player to keep track of.

Kyle Brnovich – 0-0, 9.00 ERA, 6 IP, 10 H, 4 HR, 1 BB, 8 K, 1.83 WHIP (AA Bowie)

Much like his fellow Angel turned Oriole prospect Garrett Stallings, Brnovich’s biggest enemy is the longball. With the four he gave up this week, three over one inning on Sunday, he has now given up 11 homeruns over 70.1 innings (seven with Bowie, four with Aberdeen). His homerun to flyball ratio is over 17% (which is still way lower than Stallings’ 31%) which is why despite a 0.97 WHIP between both levels he has an ERA near the mid-3’s. Following this rough week his ERA with the Baysox is 4.25 but his xFIP is a little better at 3.61. As a pitcher that relies on plus command, an outstanding knuckle-curve, and a potentially above average change-up but only a middling fastball he is bound to have games/weeks like this during his development. He is still a promising arm having a great first full professional season and the bare minimum should be a very fun high leverage bullpen arm to run out there at the major league level.