Down on the Farm: August 23, 2021

Welcome to ‘Down on the Farm’, a minor league spin-off of my weekly article ‘3 Up, 3 Down’. Every week I will highlight the three hottest and three coldest players in the Orioles minor league system from the previous week. Hopefully this will help in keeping track of the progress of the prospects playing for the Norfolk Tide, Bowie Baysox, Aberdeen Ironbirds, and Delmarva Shorebirds. Also be sure to check out my threads on the message board that are tracking both pitching and hitting statistics for the Orioles top prospects.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

On Fire

Ryan McKenna – .444/.583/1.222 (1.806), 8 R, 1 triple, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 6 BB, 2 SB, 18 AB (AAA Norfolk)

McKenna had been getting spare playing time as a fourth outfielder for the Orioles for almost two months had been performing better in August (.267 batting average, .850 OPS over 21 plate appearances) but was optioned to AAA Norfolk in an attempt to get him more regular at bats. He wasted no time in showing that he may deserve to earn that playing time back in Baltimore. He hit the ball hard and hit the ball often this week with the Tide and also walked six times and stole two bases. We know he has the speed and the defense at all three outfield positions it is just a matter of converting his success at the plate in AAA to the majors. He has sustained the walk rate (16.5% in AAA, 14.9% with the O’s) but he doesn’t appear to be comfortable enough at the plate to really let his A swing go (.412 ISO in AAA, .079 in Baltimore). The Orioles keep giving DJ Stewart chances because he has shown plus power in stretches and has good plate discipline but the problem is he has a career .211 batting average over 575 plate appearances. He is also a detriment in the field unlike McKenna. My point being is I’d rather see McKenna have that occupied roster spot with the tools he brings to the table. Both players ceilings may be similar but McKenna’s floor is higher and he has a better chance to help this team over the next several years.

Rylan Bannon – .389/.421/1.056 (1.477), 4 R, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB, 18 AB (AAA Norfolk)

Bannon’s back, back again. He continued his mission to cram a season’s worth of stats into one month with four more homeruns making it nine over the past two weeks. Mike Elias did a sit down interview with reports on Friday and he mentioned Bannon as noted here in Roch Kubatko’s blog:

“Rylan Bannon is soaring,” Elias said, praising an infielder who hit nine home runs in eight games with Norfolk before last night. “I think he’s had a lot of bad luck this season. We have batted ball data that can paint a picture with that and the stats should be better than what you’ve seen, and now he’s starting to get the results this past week, and that’s something that’s kind of way more on the radar screen than it was a month ago.”

That bad luck would account for his ridiculously low batting average on balls in play (.167). That is almost half of what the average BABIP is in the minor leagues. He has a solid walk rate (12%) and strikeout rate (20.7%) so if you figure the bad luck took away a big chunk of his expected batting average then his batting line would look much more impressive if you account for that. As is he has raised his OPS to .734. I wouldn’t be surprised if he took Maikel Franco’s spot on the roster by the time the Orioles play their next game on Tuesday. At the very latest he will be up here in September when rosters expand from 26 to 28. A hot month would give him a leg up going into spring training to earn a spot on the 2022 Orioles. You wouldn’t have believed that if you read it two weeks ago.

Connor Norby – .278/.409/.611 (1.020), 4 R, 1 double, 1 triple, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 18 AB (A Delmarva)

Low A Delmarva is a complete blast to watch play every night right now. Pretty much all of the 2021 prospects who were promoted (and Coby Mayo) have had success since joining the Shorebirds but Norby was the star for this week. He hit for the cycle! …over the course of the week but it was nice to see the diversity in his skill set. He walked twice, hit balls to the opposite field, and turned on pitches for extra bases. The bat is what has him as a borderline top 10 prospect in the system already and he should be able to stick at second base defensively. Between Norby, Terrin Vavra, and Jahmai Jones the Orioles should be able to find a long term answer at second base over the next couple of years and that isn’t including the bounty of shortstops in the system who could slide over to the other side of second base. The depth of positional talent is a big part of the problem I had with Dan Connolly’s article on The Athletic. Not only do I just disagree that the “cupboard is bare” when it comes to pitching prospects but the top two ranked farm system in baseball will be primed to make trades from it in order to acquire more established pitching talent. Whether Norby is a guy who makes it to the majors with the Orioles or is part of a deal down the line to acquire an established starting pitcher he is in a position to help the club long term.

Ice Cold

Darell Hernaiz – .133/.263/.133 (.396), 2 R, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 6 K, 15 AB (A Delmarva)

The downside to all of the 2021 draft picks getting off to good starts with A Delmarva is that I didn’t even realize Hernaiz had a rough week until I was going through the weekly splits for all the minor league teams. He is walking more as the season goes on which is nice to see and he even has more extra base hits of late but he didn’t do much of anything last week. His batting average continues to hover around .260 and he still doesn’t strike out much. I personally think he is in line to have a breakout in the style of Joey Ortiz in the next year or two. If its going to happen it will be because he hits the weight room and adds some muscle to his frame. Like I talked about with Yorkislandy Alvarez last week he has an interesting tool set that could be exciting if power is added but the difference with Hernaiz is that he just turned 20 this month so it is more realistic to think that could happen. Mike Elias and company only seemingly take high school players in the draft when they are very confident in them (Gunnar Henderson, Coby Mayo, Carter Baumler, Creed Willems) and Hernaiz was one of them. No matter how the rest of the 2021 season goes, don’t give up on him just yet.

TT Bowens – .095/.136/.095 (.232), 2 R, 0 BB, 10 K, 21 AB (A+ Aberdeen)

There was always the risk that this would happen with Bowens when he was promoted from A Delmarva to A+ Aberdeen. In a perfect world he would’ve finished 2021 with the Shorebirds to try and refine his hit tool. The power is there for any level. If he hits the ball on the nose it is going to go a long way no matter who threw it. He was performing well in low A, .786 OPS and 13 homeruns, but it still only equaled a 110 wRC+. He walked 9% of the time and struck out 27.8% of the time. Those aren’t horrible marks but they’re not great either. He was a very streaky hitter this season but his batting average ended at .237 before getting the promotion. Because of that streakiness I’m not burying him here. He could easily connect with three or four homeruns this week and stay in line with what he was doing before. But as a strictly first base prospect he has to hit really well to be considered anything of much value. He is 23 years old and the Orioles are confident in their ability to develop hitters so I’m more interested to see how he does at the start of 2022 then I am to see how he finishes this season with the Ironbirds.

Michael Baumann – 0-0, 18.00 ERA, 1 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 5.00 WHIP (AAA Norfolk)

A 39 pitch first inning was all Baumann managed this week as I’m assuming they didn’t want to put any more stress on his arm than that especially with him coming off of an arm injury. I’m not especially concerned as long as he is still feeling strong and healthy but he has allowed eight walks in his last two starts covering only five innings. The way he started his AAA career made it seem like it would be just a pit stop on his way to the Orioles rotation. I think it is safe to say we can calm down on that expectation. I still think there is a chance he makes his major league debut before the season ends but it would be nice if it came after a productive outing. Its been a roller coaster of a season for Baumann but as long as he finishes the year healthy I think the team will be happy. They can work with him over the offseason and he can come into spring training in competition for spot in the starting rotation. I would put Kyle Bradish in a similar bucket and just like Baumann he got roughed up in a short lived outing this week. He gave up five runs on five hits and two walks while only recording two outs. These guys are still figuring things out but have the raw stuff to be mid-rotation starters or at the very least high leverage relievers.