Welcome to ‘Down on the Farm’, a minor league spin-off of my weekly article ‘3 Up, 3 Down’. Every week I will highlight the three hottest and three coldest players in the Orioles minor league system from the previous week. Hopefully this will help in keeping track of the progress of the prospects playing for the Norfolk Tide, Bowie Baysox, Aberdeen Ironbirds, and Delmarva Shorebirds. Also be sure to check out my threads on the message board that are tracking both pitching and hitting statistics for the Orioles top prospects.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

On Fire

Mishael Deson.563/.588/.750 (1.338), 4 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB, 16 AB (FCL Orioles)

I already loved the Mychal Givens trade to the Rockies at the trade deadline in 2020 enough based on the two main pieces of the return, Tyler Nevin and Terrin Vavra. For a relief pitcher who isn’t a closer on a good team Mike Elias was able to extract a power hitting first baseman that could be a fringe major leaguer and potentially the next long term solution at second base that slots into the Orioles top 10 prospects. On top of that they were able to get an international signing thrown in. That would be Deson and he is quickly proving that he is much more than that. The speedy centerfielder who just turned 19 a couple months ago is putting up great numbers in the FCL and looks good doing it. He has a 139 wRC+ thanks to a .360 batting average, a double, two triples, two homeruns, and eight stolen bases. He could walk more with just a 7.1 BB% but the strikeout rate is good (19.4%) for someone taking so many swings. He is putting himself in position to rocket up prospect lists if he can continue this success in full season ball next season. He is a potential five tool player with FanGraphs listing his future grades as plus speed, above average fielding and hit tool, and major league average power. Cedric Mullins should get ready to have another potential 20/20 join him in three or four years. Kudos to Elias, Koby Perez, and the Orioles new international scouting department for finding high upside talent in the trades over the past few years to go along with the signings they’ve made themselves. Along with Deson they have acquired players with upside like Jean Pinto, Isaac De Leon, Elio Prado, Noelberth Romero, Miguel Padilla, Jose Berroa, and Victor Gonzalez. The international presence might not make itself known at the major league level for a few more years but its coming and doesn’t appear to be slowing down any time soon.

Kyle Stowers.368/.458/1.000 (1.458), 6 R, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 5 K, 19 AB (AA Bowie)

If I were to list the five players whose prospect stock has risen the most in 2021 Stowers would easily be in the top five and even has a claim for the top spot. Before the season started I didn’t even have him in my personal top 30 and he has steadily climbed to where he is now knocking on the door to my top 10. The power is real, he leads all Orioles minor leaguers in homeruns with 21 combined between high A Aberdeen (7) and AA Bowie (14), and he is getting to it more and more often in games. His work with minor league hitting coaches Tom Eller and Ryan Fuller has clearly paid off because he raised his walk rate from 8.8% in 2019 to 14.6% between the levels this season. His strikeout rate has also risen, from 23.2% to 31.9%, but it almost seems intentional like he is letting loose his A swing to do damage when he connects rather than just trying to make contact. As long as he continues to walk and hit for power it could work out for him but ideally as he continues to develop and the bigger minor league strike zone starts to shrink he can clean that up a little bit. He is around major league average when it comes to defense in the outfield and his speed on the basepaths. He has a tall athletic frame that could add even more power as he naturally bulks up a bit like Ryan Mountcastle did. The way he has performed in 2021 puts him on track to start 2022 in AAA and at that point could make his major league debut in the second half of next season depending on how he performs. Starting left fielder for the competitive 2023 Baltimore Orioles isn’t out of the question.

Zach Peek 0-0, 1.80 ERA, 5 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K, 0.60 WHIP (A+ Aberdeen)

Peek is having a sneaky great first professional season. If you look at his base stats they don’t stand out as exceptional but his FIP and xFIP show he has been a little unlucky. His raw stuff is filthy, especially his offspeed offerings. A strikeout rate over 30% between low and high A lends credence to that. He has only given up five homeruns over 70.2 innings and his walk rate has gotten better as the season has gone on (4.5% since being promoted to Aberdeen). He gets a lot of groundballs and pop ups and has a .368 BABIP against him. He is already 23 years old but its hard to hold that against him when he was drafted in 2019 and never pitched since that is the Angels philosophy when it comes to drafted pitchers and then obviously didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the pandemic. I think he is a high floor, high ceiling type of pitching prospect since he has the type of stuff that would at least get him a look in the bullpen in a few years even if he can’t put it all together. The upside is a mid-rotation starter if he the command improves enough. Between him, Kyle Bradish, Kyle Brnovich, and even Isaac Mattson, who has had a very disappointing season, the Orioles should see the fruits of the Dylan Bundy trade for many years to come.

Ice Cold

Jordan Westburg .150/.190/.150 (.340), 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 SB, 20 AB (AA Bowie)

When it comes to Westburg’s struggles in the two weeks since he has been promoted to AA Bowie it is good to keep in mind that he had a slow start with high A Aberdeen (.206 batting average in his first 11 games compared to .143 in the same time with the Baysox) as well before making adjustments and hitting to a .865 OPS and 135 wRC+ by the end of his stint there. His walk rate is actually better with Bowie (14.3%) than it was with either A Delmarva or A+ Aberdeen and his strikeout rate is right in line with what it was at those levels as well. The problem is that he hasn’t hit for any power yet in AA. Of his six hits only one of them went for extra bases, a double, and his batting average per ball in play is a lowly .207 which screams bad luck. There could also be some wearing down going on as it is Westburg’s first professional season after getting drafted last year amidst a season where there was no minor league season. He has blitzed his way through the system setting himself up to make his major league debut by mid-season 2023 but not playing with one team for more than a couple months has to be a whirlwind. He has a few weeks left (and maybe a playoff run) to try and end his great season on a high note. I would be surprised if he isn’t a top 100 prospect by the time the 2022 season starts.

Adam Hall .154/.214/.231 (.445), 1 double, 1 RBI, 13 AB (A+ Aberdeen)

The good news – Adam Hall is healthy again after missing a little more than a month with a quadricep strain. The bad news? He continues to not hit in what continues to be an incredibly disappointing season, batting .125 with a double in four August games. Prior to the season I had Hall in the mid-teens of my prospect rankings and he has slid all the way down to #42 for me. Other players and middle infielders have played well and passed him by as he has struggled mightily to a .243 batting average and .662 OPS. I was surprised when the opening day rosters were announced and Hall was starting in high A. I had assumed he would share time at shortstop with Cadyn Grenier in AA Bowie but the Orioles obviously had more information at their disposal to make that decision. A hot start could’ve gotten him a quick promotion but instead it was Joey Ortiz who claimed that role before suffering a season ending shoulder injury. Hall is still just 22 years old and has plus speed but he has to find a way to get on base so he can utilize that weapon. He is eligible to be selected in the rule 5 draft this winter if he is not added to the 40 man roster but I can’t imagine the Orioles will be protecting him. And unless some team wants to stash him as a pinch runner for an entire year I can’t imagine there is a threat that they will lose him.

Houston Roth0-1, 21.60 ERA, 1.2 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K, 4.20 WHIP (A Delmarva)

Roth has been consistently good all season long for low A Delmarva making him one of the most underrated pitchers in the system. He has been there all year and watched his fellow teammates such as Jake Prizina, Ignacio Feliz, Ryan Watson, Noah Denoyer, Brandon Young, Griffin McLarty, Adam Stauffer, and the aforementioned Zach Peek. The reason for that may be that he has outpitched his peripherals with a 4.42 FIP and 4.95 xFIP compared to his 3.84 ERA but he did have an excellent debut season with short A Aberdeen in 2019 at 21 years old (4-0, 1.42 ERA, 31.2 IP, 39 K). At this point I think it is safe to say that Roth will finish the season where he started with an eye towards being in the Aberdeen starting rotation to begin the 2022 season. It would help if he could add a tick or two to his fastball and lower his walk rate but that is easier said than done. His ceiling is most likely a multi-inning reliever in the majors and I’m not sure how likely he is to reach it but the Orioles organization is filled with guys like him who are having success and with the right development could pitch in the major leagues, whether its with the O’s or another organization.

Bob Phelan
Bob Phelan

BSL Analyst

Bob is a co-host of ‘On the Verge’ an Orioles podcast focused on the O’s farm system here on BSL. He used to run the baseball blog ‘The Oriole Report’ before transitioning to podcasting about movies, TV, Video Games, and MMA. ‘The Redbox Report’ movie podcast was started in 2013 followed by ‘The Redbelt Report’ MMA podcast in 2016. Bob has also written for Konsume.com and BaltimoreSportsReport.com and delivers mail for a living in Baltimore County. Follow him on Twitter @TheOrioleReport.

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