Down on the Farm: May 17, 2022

Welcome to ‘Down on the Farm’, a minor league spin-off of my weekly article ‘3 Up, 3 Down’. Every week I will highlight the three hottest and three coldest players in the Orioles minor league system from the previous week. Hopefully this will help in keeping track of the progress of the prospects playing for the Norfolk Tide, Bowie Baysox, Aberdeen Ironbirds, and Delmarva Shorebirds. Also be sure to check out my threads on the message board that are tracking both pitching and hitting statistics for the Orioles top prospects.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

On Fire

Jordan Westburg – .286/.400/.619 (1.019), 4 R, 4 doubles, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 21 AB (AA Bowie)

Westburg was on the downside of this list a couple weeks ago after going ice cold for a week or so. It looked like he might be seeing the ball better last week as he walked four times and only struck out three times despite a .091 batting average. Whether that was true or not is hard to say for certain but either way he busted out of his slump this past week in a big way. He did strikeout 12 times but walked four more times and had five extra base hits including his sixth homerun. He now has a higher OPS (.763) and wRC+ (113) than he did in his time there in 2021 (.752 and 104 respectively) in roughly the same number of plate appearances. Overall his walk rate is up around five percent from last season as is his strikeout rate. He’s hitting for more power .232 ISO than he did at any stop last year and that’s with a low .254 BABIP holding his batting average down. He’s getting even playing time across the infield (10 games at third base, 10 games at second base, nine games at shortstop) as he prepares to get promoted to AAA Norfolk for the second half of the season. We’ve talked to multiple AA Bowie players on the ‘On the Verge’ podcast this year and they have each raved about Westburg’s professionalism and leadership ability. Nobody seems to think anything other than he is a major league player and its just a matter of time until that is official.

Juan De Los Santos – 0-1, 2.45 ERA, 11 IP, 8 H, 3 BB, 14 K, 1.00 WHIP (A Delmarva)

In January I wrote an article speculating on five names that could make a jump into our top 50 prospects list. Actually it was eight names because I cheated and threw four high upside teenage arms into one spot – Moises Chace, Cesar Alvarez, Deivy Cruz, and Anthony Morillo. Alvarez, Cruz, and Morillo will make their season debuts next month when the FCL opens up their season and Chace showed flashes of brilliance with low A Delmarva before being placed on the seven day injured list recently. The exciting part of the Orioles being in on the international market is that despite throwing out four names, it was a fifth that came out this season as a relative unknown and has captured our attention with his performance. Juan De Los Santos is 19 for another week or so and has used a mid-90’s fastball and solid enough offspeed pitches to dominate A ball batters to the tune of a 1.97 ERA over 32 innings with 35 strikeouts, 13 walks, and a 1.06 WHIP. He has held opponents to a .186 batting average and its easy to see why. He looks like a young Felix Bautista on the mound with a listed 6’3’’, 250 pound frame. That’s an intimidating presence for the young hitters who step into the box against him. There will be some growing pains when he inevitably takes a step up into high A later this summer but it will be a great learning experience for a talented young arm as he learns how to command his pitches and develop a breaking ball.

Connor Gillispie – 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 6 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 8 K, 0.17 WHIP (A+ Aberdeen)

Gillispie got off to a great start in his Orioles career, pitching to a 1.77 ERA over 20.1 innings with then short A Aberdeen with 21 strikeouts and only five walks. Following the missed COVID season in 2020 the team decided to stretch him out and started him up in now high A Aberdeen. (Fun fact, Gillispie has only ever played for the Ironbirds over parts of three seasons now.) But he didn’t do as well in 2021 and ended the year with a 4.97 ERA over 79.2 innings with 78 strikeouts and 29 walks. The strikeout rate was down and the walk rate was up but the real issue was the homerun ball, he gave up 16 of them. He is repeating the level again this season and got off to a terrible start – 7.36 ERA over 11 innings with 15 strikeouts and five walks but has since only given up one run over his last three appearances covering 14 innings with 19 strikeouts and only two walks. Overall on the season his walk rate is back down to 2019 levels while his strikeout rate is way up to 33.3% which has equaled a 3.60 ERA over 25 innings. We’ve talked about with Darell Hernaiz how it is nice to see a player repeat a level and show clear improvement before finally getting that promotion and while a 24 year old pitcher is obviously a different situation than a 20 year old shortstop it is still good to see a player take steps to get better. Aberdeen’s pitching staff has been quietly excellent this season, very deep without many names that standout, and its safe to say many of them will be pitching for AA Bowie in the back half of the season.

Ice Cold

Coby Mayo – .130/.160/.304 (.464), 5 R, 1 double, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 23 AB (A+ Aberdeen)

One thing I like about doing this article every week and looking at the weekly numbers for both hitters and pitchers throughout the organization is that I get to see the ebbs and flows of a baseball season and hopefully am able to translate to anyone that reads these consistently while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of individual players. One thing I learned from doing this last year is that everybody has slumps. Everybody. Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg, you name it. Now some are worse than others and I think the difference between a great player and a very good player may be how long they last and what you can still accomplish while you’re in them, whether it be continuing to draw walks or doing damage when you do make contact – whatever. Coby Mayo is in a slump but it is also coming right off of the hottest short stretch he’s maybe had in his career a couple weeks ago. He is also 20 years old all season long and still adjusting to more advanced pitching than he faced at any point last year. And even though he only had three hits for the week, he made them count when he made contact with a double and a homerun. His wRC+ is down to 98 which is slightly below league average yet he is one of the youngest players in the league and coming off his coldest stretch of the season. His strikeout rate has raised and his walk rate has fallen compared to last year but they are still at respectable levels (7.8% BB, 24.8% K) given the context he is playing in. We’ve seen what it looks like when he is firing on all cylinders and its one of the best young prospects in the sport.

Luis Valdez – .091/.091/.136 (.227), 1 double, 1 SB, 22 AB (A Delmarva)

Valdez put up a 143 wRC+ as a 21 year old in the Dominican Summer League last year over 100 plate appearances. He had a .333 batting average, .860 OPS, 11% walk rate, 21% strikeout rate, .107 ISO, and 21 stolen bases. Those are obviously great numbers but at an older age than most of the players in the DSL. A spark plug with plus plus speed and the ability to play second base and the outfield he had been one of the most consistent contributors on an extremely young team that has struggled as they adjust to full season ball until this past week. Through May 7^th he had a 110 wRC+ over 92 plate appearances with a .277 batting average and .721 OPS. Even after his first truly bad week of the season he is fifth on the team with a 82 wRC+ (there are only three players on the team with a wRC+ over 100: Darell Hernaiz, Isaac Bellony, and Noelberth Romero), fourth in OPS (.622), fourth in batting average (.238), and the third lowest strikeout rate (21.9%). He also leads all of the Orioles minor leagues in stolen bases with 14 which puts him 18^th in all of minor league baseball and he’s only been caught three times. At 22 years old I’m not sure what his long term prospects are but as one of the elder statesmen on the Shorebirds he is a crucial presence on the field and in the lineup and should be there all season long.

Griffin McLarty – 0-1, 14.73 ERA, 3.2 IP, 4 H, 1 HBP, 6 BB, 3 K, 2.73 WHIP (AA Bowie)

McLarty started the season back with high A Aberdeen after posting a 3.28 ERA with them over the last month of 2021 covering 24.2 innings. He struck out 22 batters and only walked just eight. He only appeared in three games with the Ironbirds this season before being promoted to AA Bowie following a rash of pitchers being placed on the 7 day IL for non-injury reasons. In that time he had a 4.15 ERA over 8.2 innings with 13 strikeouts and five walks. Whether it was designed as a temporary step up to help fill innings until enough players were ready to be activated or not, it was a good opportunity for the first pitcher taken in the 2019 draft (and hence the first pitcher the Mike Elias regime ever drafted for the Orioles) to get a taste of some tougher competition. He struggled mightily in his first two appearances giving up eight runs on five hits, four walks, and two homeruns over just 2.2 innings with three strikeouts. That comes out to a 27.00 ERA, 3.37 WHIP, and 15.46 FIP. He did pitch better in his third appearance this past Sunday only giving up one run over three innings with two strikeouts but he did walk three batters and allow two hits. Noah Denoyer, Jensen Elliott, and Wes Robertson were also brought up from Aberdeen. I’m not sure if any of them will get the chance to stick in AA but even if they are returned to the Ironbirds it can’t be a bad learning experience for when they eventually do earn a permanent promotion to the Baysox.