Down on the Farm – September 21, 2021

Welcome to ‘Down on the Farm’, a minor league spin-off of my weekly article ‘3 Up, 3 Down’. Every week I will highlight the three hottest and three coldest players in the Orioles minor league system from the previous week. Hopefully this will help in keeping track of the progress of the prospects playing for the Norfolk Tide, Bowie Baysox, Aberdeen Ironbirds, and Delmarva Shorebirds. Also be sure to check out my threads on the message board that are tracking both pitching and hitting statistics for the Orioles top prospects.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

On Fire

Jordan Westburg – .393/.433/.571 (1.005), 7 R, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 SB, 28 AB (AA Bowie)

It was the final week of the regular season for every minor league level except for AAA and the DSL, who both have two weeks of play left, and a lot of the biggest names in the Orioles system decided they wanted to end their seasons on a high note. Nobody may have needed that more than Westburg who had been struggling a bit since being promoted to AA Bowie, his third level in his first professional season. With his hot stretch of hitting he leaves his batting line with the Baysox at .232/.323/.429 (.752) heading into the playoffs against Akron. That pushes his offensive output over league average (104 wRC+) and makes you wonder if he could start 2022 in AAA at 23 years old. As you would expect Westburg’s offensive value fell for each level he made it to this year but there were also some signs that he was improving as the year went along as well. His wRC+ dropped at each level – 188 in low A, 133 in high A, 104 in AA – as did his walk rate although not significantly and it stayed at an above average number (13.2% to 12.3% to 10.8%). The good thing is he actually struck out less as he went up each level (26.4% in low A, 24.9% in high A, 24.2% in AA) but his luck for batted balls got worse as the season progressed. The power was consistent all year long, hovering around a .200 ISO. He hits the ball hard to all fields and should project to an Austin Hays level of power at the major league level. The biggest question might be which infield position he ends up at but from I’ve seen he is solid if not spectacular all across the infield.

Coby Mayo – .320/.433/.560 (.993), 5 R, 1 double, 1 triple, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 SB, 25 AB (A Delmarva)

Its going to be a race between Mayo and Jordan Westburg to see who will be the next Orioles prospect to show up on a national top 100 list (I’m not including Colton Cowser who was left off of the most recent Baseball America update). Westburg would have to be the favorite being the advanced college bat with success at higher levels but I wouldn’t be surprised if Mayo leaps over him depending on the early reports next spring. We knew he had raw power when the Orioles drafted him overslot out of high school in the 2020 draft but I certainly didn’t expect him to tap into it so frequently in games at the age of 19. It was impressive enough that he performed the way he did in the FCL against mostly raw international talent but he basically did the exact same thing in low A full season ball. He had a .964 OPS and 156 wRC+ in the FCL and a .963 OPS and 159 wRC+ with Delmarva. His walk rate and power stayed roughly the same and his strikeout rate went from a great 15.5% to a pretty good 20.8%. He is a big kid with even more power coming as he continues to fill in his frame and will start 2022 as a 20 year old in high A Aberdeen. It isn’t inconceivable that he finishes next year in AA. The biggest question when he was drafted seemed to be if he could stick at third base defensively, his arm being a noted strength. I know he could grow to the point that he is just too big for the position but he has natural athletic actions out there unlike Ryan Mountcastle who you could tell just wasn’t natural out there. Ironbirds games are going to be a lot of fun early on in 2022.

Brandon Young – 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 8 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 13 K, 0.13 WHIP (A+ Aberdeen)

There have been a lot of breakout pitching talent in the lower minors this season despite what people who rely on one anonymous rival scout would have you believe. Three of the pitchers acquired in the Dylan Bundy trade made their presence known immediately. Kyle Bradish quickly rose to AAA and the top 10 of one of the best farm systems in baseball. Kyle Brnovich struck out around 12 batters per nine innings with a WHIP around 1.00 between high A and AA. Zach Peek might have the highest upside of all three finishing strong with high A Aberdeen but not as much as another pitcher who was acquired from the Angels in the Jose Iglesias trade, Jean Pinto, a 20 year old international signing with electric stuff. The latest name you can add to your list to keep an eye on for the 2022 season is Young who quietly had a great season all year long but finished very strong with the Ironbirds. The big 6’6’’ right hander was an undrafted free agent following the shortened five round draft in 2020 and started the season in low A Delmarva’s rotation to little fanfare. Before being promoted to high A he posted a 3.23 ERA over 47.1 innings with 60 strikeouts and 22 walks with the Shorebirds. He arguably pitched better with Aberdeen raising his strikeout rate, lowering his walk rate, and greatly improving his groundball rate (37.2% to 56%). Overall he had a 3.89 ERA over 37 innings with 54 strikeouts and 15 walks but his FIP was 3.74 and his xFIP an even better 3.25. He has a fastball touching the mid 90’s and a potential plus changeup and breaking ball. Next time open all the doors before assuming the cupboard is bare.

Ice Cold

Reed Trimble – .182/.250/.182 (.432), 4 R, 2 RBI, 1 SB, 22 AB (A Delmarva)

Trimble was the Orioles supplemental second round pick in the 2021 draft that was signed for $800,000 out of Southern Miss as a draft eligible sophomore. He is a guy like fellow 2021 draftee John Rhodes who was taken a little bit sooner than expected in a (successful) attempt to lock them up before they could raise their stock going into the 2022 draft. Trimble is a switch hitting outfielder that is said to be a great athlete with a lot of tools to build on. With the FCL Orioles he hit .333 with a .844 OPS over a very short sample size of 18 plate appearances before being promoted to low A Delmarva with most of the other draft picks. There he hit .169 with a .491 OPS over 76 plate appearances. Its not much to be overly concerned about, its still a short sample size and he missed some time with an unknown injury, but with the way the rest of the team performed it stands out like a sore thumb. His .244 BABIP didn’t help his average and he still walked 11.8% of the time but the glaring thing to me is his miniscule .015 ISO. He had one extra base hit, a double. He is supposed to have major league average power potential and again it is a short sample after a full college season but it may be something that leads to him starting 2022 back in Delmarva while the rest of the draft class moves on to high A Aberdeen.

Toby Welk – .130/.167/.261 (.428), 3 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 23 AB (AA Bowie)

Without statcast information freely available for the minor leagues it is hard to get a good read on guys like Welk (Rylan Bannon and Tyler Nevin being other examples) that have low BABIPs. Without seeing how hard they’re hitting the ball its hard to determine just how much is bad luck and how much is poor contact. The fact that Toby has had a power surge since being promoted to AA Bowie, .201 ISO after being .098 in high A, (which isn’t that surprising considering Leidos Field is an extreme pitchers park) suggests that hard contact isn’t much of an issue but his average slipped from .265 with Aberdeen to .205 with the Baysox. His walk rate also dipped 4% (12.7% to 8.5%) suggesting that perhaps he is selling out more for power. His BABIPs throughout his career had never been below .330 but with Bowie it is sitting at .238. If you normalize that a bit his numbers would look a lot better but again it is hard to do that without surrounding evidence. If Welk is going to make it to the major leagues its going to have to be with his bat. His defense at third base is not good and if he is going to be limited to first base he is going to have to mash, which could explain selling out for more power if that is indeed what is happening. The missed 2020 season really hurts a guy like him who is now 24 years old but wasn’t able to benefit from the alternate site to work with the Orioles player development team day in and day out. He should start next season back in Bowie but will have a chance to make it to AAA relatively quickly with Nevin being as ready for the majors as he is likely to be and guys like JD Mundy and Andrew Daschbach going to need playing time with the Baysox.

Cody Sedlock – 0-1, 31.50 ERA, 2 IP, 8 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 3 K, 6.00 WHIP (AAA Norfolk)

Sedlock had been so good since being promoted to AAA Norfolk over his first four appearances. He had a 2.75 ERA over his first 19.2 innings with 22 strikeouts, only four walks, and a WHIP around 1.00. Unfortunately his last start was so bad that it raised his overall numbers with Norfolk to a 5.40 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The good news for Cody is he has a couple weeks left to try and turn things around in an attempt to be added to the Orioles 40 man roster before the rule 5 draft or at the very least impressive a team enough to select him in the rule 5 draft if he isn’t protected. No matter how the last couple weeks go I think you would have to consider his season as a win considering prior to the 2019 he was written off as a complete bust. Between injuries and ineffectiveness  (5.90 ERA with high A in 2017, 7.97 ERA with high A in 2018) he came into 2019 as an afterthought. A 2.36 ERA over 61 innings with high A and a 3.71 ERA over 34 innings with AA earned him consideration of being taken from the O’s over the past two rule 5 drafts but his age and lack of track record, especially with the missing 2020 season, left him unselected. Being so close to major league ready now I think the odds are much higher that he gets taken in a few months if he is left unprotected. He reminds me of Dillon Tate in that he almost has no chance to make it as a major league starter but he does have good enough stuff to be a member of a major league bullpen if he can get his command under control a little bit more. The Orioles have a few of those guys in the upper minors so it will be interesting to see which ones they prioritize over the others.