The DRAFT Model and the Undrafted

The 2020 MLB Draft is a month behind us, and the majority of the Orioles work is done. Heston Kjerstad, Jordan Westburg and Hudson Haskin, and Anthony Servideo and Coby Mayo have all signed. Only Carter Baumler remains, but he seems likely to sign with the team.

However, there are many other smaller moves that the team has made. The team has signed eight undrafted free agents, three of whom were profiled by Nick Stevens a month ago. Today, I want to look briefly at all these players, particularly through the eyes of the DRAFT Model.

Shane Davis, RHP

Shane Davis took a meandering route to pro ball. The Chesapeake, VA native spent two years at a local D-II JuCo in Bryant and Stratton College at Virginia Beach, then joined North Carolina Central University for his Junior year. At all stops, Davis has struck out batters at ridiculous rates. In his two years at Bryant and Stratton, he struck out 12.52 and 13.02 batters per nine. In the shortened season at NC Central, it was 11.28. Say what you will about competition levels, but those are impressive. On the Locked on Orioles podcast, Johnathan Duran—the radio voice of NC Central athletics—noted Davis’s curveball as his best pitch. Unsurprisingly, video of Davis is hard to find, but I am fairly sure the video below is from 2018 when Davis was with Bryant and Stratton College. The quality is poor, but from it we can get that Davis’ curveball sits in the mid 70s and he was able to get the one batter to chase it out of the zone—something that would portend his strikeout totals.

The DRAFT Model loves Davis because of those strikeouts. He gets a score of 3.66, which is higher than several drafted players. However, we should probably not hold our hopes quite that high. His predicted starting percentage is 0.71, a bit too high, as is his 43.8% chance of reaching the majors. If his strikeouts regressed a bit—as I would expect them to do over the whole season—his score would drop closer to the 2-2.2 level. Still an impressive pickup from the UDFA pool, and a young player to boot—20.8 years old on draft day.

Brandon Young, RHP

Another meandering route to the pros. From Howard College—a JuCo in Texas—to Louisiana-Lafayette, Brandon Young brings the strikeouts, albeit with a little more wildness than Davis. Across his four seasons in college ball, Young stuck out 10.35, 14.34, 11.93, and 13.5 batters per nine. However, this is accompanied by 5.46, 6.75, 5.63, and 3.28 walks per nine. He has faced some solid competition and performed, striking out 10 in a 6-inning start against Michigan State. He throws a four-seam fastball that he seems willing to work up in the zone, likely bringing some decent backspin to it. Secondaries include a changeup, slider, and spike-curve. He is cognizant of the uses of technology in baseball, something that seemed to be a part of the Oriole’s pitch to him.

Young’s DRAFT score is 2.43, again highly aided by strikeouts. It gives him a 47% chance of starting and 30% chance of reaching the majors. If he does reach it, it’ll likely be as a two-pitch reliever. But those players have value, and Young definitely seems to have the raw stuff to make that happen.

Thomas Girard, RHP

Girard has been at Duke 3 years, and probably has the most accolades of all the signings. He pitched on the Cape in 2019, was a third-team Preseason All-American going into the 2020 season, and likely would have showed up on draft boards this season if it continued like it started. In 13 relief innings on the year, Girard walked one batter and struck out 23, leading to a ridiculous 15.92 K/9. His delivery definitely has effort, so it’s no surprise that he’s exclusively a bullpen arm. His tailing fastball sits in the low 90s with a power breaking ball that generates whiffs, and consistently worked multiple innings as Duke’s closer.

Girard’s DRAFT score is 1.85, but it should be lower. There’s no way he has a 48% chance of starting, as he is almost surely a reliever. If you lower it to a more reasonable level, his score lowers to the 0.8-1.0 range. He likely won’t pitch high leverage innings, but the slider certainly is intriguing.

Isaiah Kearns

Kearns started at West Virginia, being a Sunday starter for two years. He put up middling run-prevention numbers during that time, but did put up impressive strikeout numbers for a starter(8.4 and 10.3 K/9). After a stint in the Cape Cod League during Summer 2018, Kearns left West Virginia and resurfaced again this Spring at D-II University of Pittsburg-Johnstown. In four starts there this year, he gave up four earned runs, walked four, and struck out 10.9 per 9 innings. He even slashed .400/.507/.764 in 67 PAs. His velocity sat in the low-to-mid 90s, and he ostensibly has more of a future on the mound.

In searching, the only video I could find of Kearns dates to his Freshman year at West Virginia.

Kearns has a DRAFT score of 0.83, with a 20% chance of reaching the majors. His athleticism gives him a chance of being used as an emergency OF/long reliever, giving him unique value to the organization.

Dylan Harris, CF

The small centerfielder out of North Carolina brings a lot of patience to the plate and more pop than you’d expect out of his 5’9″ frame. At both JuCo powerhouse Walters State and UNC, Harris never walked lower than 11% fo the time. In his two seasons at UNC, Harris had ISOs of .163 and .301 while striking out 14% and 9% of the time. He did tend to punish weak opponents and trail off in ACC competition, but his batting eye will likely allow him to stick longer than most of his profile.

Harris’ DRAFT score sits at 0.82, with a 10% chance of reaching the majors. This feels about right, as there are really no loud tools but he could parlay his plate discipline into a September callup or second-division utility outfielder.

T.T. Bowens, 1B

Bowens is an interesting prospect, though not as interesting as he was a year ago. At the time, he had just finished his redshirt Sophomore year at Central Connecticut, slashing .376/.459/.640. He followed this up with a 16-homer campaign in the New England Collegiate Baseball League, ranking as Baseball America’s #3 prospect out of the league. He seemed like the type who would be a older player drafted in the top-10 rounds as a cost-saver at bare minimum. His redshirt Junior went much more poorly, with a slash line of .262/.340/.452. At 6’4″-235, he brings raw power to the plate, but his plate discipline (Over 20% strikeout rate and under 10% walk rate) is questionable.

Bowens’ DRAFT score is 0.72, with a 6% chance of reaching the majors. His athleticism and physique gives him a higher ceiling than his numbers belie, but his chances of reaching that ceiling are certainly on the low side.

J.D. Mundy, DH

Mundy lives by the three true outcomes, as over 41% of all his plate appearances in his collegiate career have ended in a walk, strikeout, or home run—the NCAA rate across all three divisions is 29.5%. This has always been the case for Mundy, from his time at Virginia Tech to his breakout at Radford. His high rates of production carried over to wood-bat, as he hit 20 homers in 261 PAs across his last two wood-bat seasons. But with this power and patience (15% walk rate in college and 14.6% in the summer) comes the strikeouts at a clip of 20% in college and summer.

Mundy has a draft score of 0.71, driven by his strong ISO numbers. Mundy is almost a pure DH type, with virtually no realistic shot of player anywhere other than potentially first base. But Mundy does bring power and walks to the table, and has a decent chance of producing in the minors.

Ryan Watson, RHP

Ryan Watson is the one player from the bunch who was previously drafted, picked in the 39th round in the 2016 draft in a clear draft-and-follow. He’s an odd profile statistically, as a reliever without high strikeout rates. He’s never topped 9 K/9 and he doesn’t really keep the walks notably low (3.58 BB/9). That said, Baseball America ranked him the second-best draft prospect in the South Florida Collegiate League in 2018, so there is at least some potential there. He does throw a solid sinker in the low 90s from a low 3/4 arm slot, and is able to generate a higher than average amount of grounders.

Watson’s DRAFT score is 0.59, appropriate given his low chance of starting (25% according to the model). Being in the pitch design and the “build-a-pitcher” era, Watson may be able to be a low-leverage middle reliever with a better second pitch. However, that’s a long ways away at best.