Early Orioles Musings

Baseball is different vs. other sports. Next fall, when the Ravens finish their Week 1 game – it will be early, but there will be legitimate takeaways that you can have about the roster.

How many games do you need in baseball to feel the same? This is not a new topic. Every baseball fan has this discussion every season. FanGraphs wrote about when samples become reliable six years ago.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

I struggle with this annually. If you are a fan and checking-in daily on the Birds, you have immediate opinions starting with the first pitch. The eyes see what the eyes see. The other-side of that is knowing that your eyes lie. Or more accurately, what you are seeing in small sample sizes tells you little.

What ‘Couch Scouts’ like ourselves can tell in limited samples are the things which jump off of the TV screen. You can tell who has plus bat speed, and who has great stuff. You can see outstanding range, and what fielders have the strongest arms. You know which players run like gazelles, and which guys are running in quick sand.

Those things only tell you so much though. They have to be balanced by the less obvious scouting observations, and accumulating statistical information which either repudiates or confirms what you are seeing.

To me, one of the undervalued assets in baseball is consistency. Who is regularly available? That was an exceptional play you made last night, what happened on that routine grounder today?  In Football, when your team plays once a week for sixteen weeks, it is more understandable to experience those emotional ups and downs. In Baseball, fans (and I imagine the players themselves) have to remind themselves of those oft-stated cliches – the season is a marathon, and you can not get too high or too low. The general expectations you have for a player can not change because Player X looks amazing for a week, or because Player Y spent that same week looking he would have trouble making solid contact in Beer League Softball.

With those caveats, here are some of my early thoughts on the Birds.

– Chris Davis has 8 strikeouts in his last 3 games, and has 12 k’s against 0 walks on the young year. If he hasn’t done it already, he should be back working off the tee, and viewing his career highlights. He needs to concentrate on using the entire field, and just being more patient. In 2012 his BB% was 6.6%. In ’13 that jumped to 10.7. In ’14, that increased again to 11.4%. It is my assumption that the ’12 to ’13 jump was a result of his big year, and thus pitchers became more careful with him. Of course the circular point is that he might have had that big year because he himself was more patient overall.

It’s easy to understand that Davis has the weight of the world on his shoulders right now. After ’13 he was in-line for a huge extension. After a miserable ’14, he is now a pending FA after this season. Between playing for that next contract, and wanting to again prove himself to his team; there is pressure to perform. I don’t believe the O’s can contend all season if he doesn’t hit. I think he has to be at, at-least his 2012 levels, and hopefully between ’12 and ’13 for Orioles to have the team success they want.

Either way, I think the O’s have to ride with him. He performs, or he doesn’t. I would give him everyday at-bats until at-least September 1st. If at that point the O’s are not in the race – and if he has had a poor year – then I could see allowing Christian Walker to get some regular ab’s.

My expectation is that will not be necessary. Davis had a poor year last season, and he’s looked incredibly rough these last few games; but I believe he will rebound. The key in my-mind is him avoiding a significant early hole.

– Everth Cabrera has looked capable so far. The defensive metrics have historically rated him as a below average SS. Physically I see a guy with good range, and quality arm. As we see him play more often, I wonder if it will become apparent what his historical issues have been. As is, the Orioles are going to have a decision to make when Hardy returns. Do you keep Cabrera or Flaherty on the bench? Right now, I see Flaherty going back to AAA.

– Adam Jones is scorching right now. Homers in the last 3 games, 4 of the last 5. 12 for 28 overall. The numbers that stand out the most are 1 bb, and 2 k’s. He’s not going to bat .429 for the year, but if he can close the gap on his ’14 bb to k ratio (19 to 133) he could have his best offensive season.

– Travis Snider has 6 bb’s in 7 games. I think that is a good sign. He showed some range and his arm in the Tampa Bay series (Jones said he was surprised by Snider’s range and speed). Then he had the bad error in the Toronto series.His UZR / 150 in RF in ’12 was 13.2 (233.1 innings), 1.8 in ’13 (494 innings), and -28.7 in ’14 (386 innings). I think the O’s are a better team if you become comfortable with him as the everyday RF, vs. if Showalter comes to believe Pearce needs to play ahead of him in Right.

– I’m not worried about the bullpen. If the rotation does their job innings wise, I think the bullpen will be fine. Seeing Miller return to the Baltimore was a slap to the face though. The O’s 2015 ‘pen can be adequate, and even good – but had they retained Miller, they could have been exceptional.

Brad Brach is a pretty big swing guy for the O’s bullpen. It’s been a tough go so far, with at-least an er allowed in each of his four outings. It is somewhat blasphemous among O’s fans at this point, but I am encouraged by how Brian Matusz looks. Particularly his change-up. As always, the thing to watch is to see if he find some level of effectiveness vs. right handed hitters.

– Caleb Joseph is pretty easy to root for. By all accounts he appears to be strong defensively. In ’13 he had a big offensive year at AA Bowie as a 27 year old. He had that stretch last August with 5 homers. I question if he can consistently hit at this level, but if the defense is as good as it appears – the O’s can live with it if he’s a below average bat (as long as he is not a complete black hole).  Ryan Lavarnway was once a pretty well regarded prospect. His MiL numbers show a guy that looks to have some skill with the bat. I’m still looking forward to the return of Wieters. I think that (along with Hardy) will provide further depth to the lineup. That said, if Wieters had any further set-backs, I would be interested to see how the playing time worked out between Joseph and Lavarnway over a longer stretch.

– How does David Lough fit in with this roster?

– Kevin Gausman being in the bullpen has beaten to death by myself and others on the BSL Message Board. Going into this again with much detail seems repetitive at this point. Grantland’s Jonah Keri explored this further today as well. To provide a quick summation, I’m not a fan of the decision. Based on the innings Gausman accumulated last year, he should be good for 190+ here in ’15. If he wasn’t starting here in Baltimore, I’d prefer him to be starting at AAA Norfolk. Comments from Duquette in the Grantland article provide additional light on the O’s perspective. As long as he is in the ‘pen though, I’ll concede the clear point that it is a nice weapon to have.

– Ubaldo Jimenez’s excellent 2015 debut, and Miguel Gonzalez’s 10 k’s last night have been the highlights of the rotation so far. As we said all Winter, the most concerning part of Jimenez’s poor ’14 was his 13.9% BB%. If he gets that back to his career rate (10.8%), he can be effective. His velocity was not great in his start, but he had plus movement, and worked quick. Hitters don’t get good contact against him. Can he control his mechanics, and repeat what was shown with any consistency? If so, that’s a big lift to the rotation as a whole.

I like watching Gonzalez pitch a lot. Every now and then he has a start which reminds you of how good he can be. Last night was such an example, against a lefty heavy lineup. One reason I still would have gone with Gausman over Gonzalez for the rotation to begin the year, is that I would like to have Gonzalez available as a starter late in the year. We’ve seen Showalter occasionally skip him in the rotation, to keep him fresh. (Gonzalez has averaged 27 starts, and 165 innings the last two years.) Can Gonzalez make the jump to 190 innings?

– After a poor Spring, and a ’15 debut which saw him allow 8 er; there is some early pressure on Bud Norris to look better tonight. To be clear, we are talking about 11.2 Spring Training innings, and one 3 inning start against a strong Toronto lineup. I don’t think there is any reason to change our opinion of what Norris is – a guy that has had four straight seasons of 165+ innings and 28+ starts. He’s a capable back of the rotation starter, that stuff wise can look better than that when he is on. If he has a rough couple of weeks, maybe we see him and Gausman switch roles.

– Going back to our initial thoughts above, the O’s as a whole look a bit vulnerable right now. That said, Baltimore was just .500 overall heading into June last year. We’ve already seen three of the O’s AL East Divisional opponents. Tampa Bay can have a good rotation, but has zero offense. Toronto has a quality everyday lineup (if they can stay healthy), but will miss Stroman. They are also depending on a lot of rookies. New York has a recognizable lineup, and a plus bullpen. I just don’t believe in them with their overall age, and the concerns with Tanaka. I continue to think the O’s can be the class of this division. With all of these division games to start the year, you don’t want to be waiting until June for the Orioles to raise their level of play though.