The best domestic soccer league around starts up the new season this Friday with Brentford hosting Arsenal. Some new things in store for EPL fans this season but none are bigger than the leagues approach to tackling racism and abuse. While that has been a focus for the last several years the league is going to take their approach to the next level. Here are the actions planned for this season.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

  1. Players and referees will wear a patch on their sleeves that says “No Room for Racism.”
  2. Launched their No Room for Racism Action Plan with has a main focus to increase opportunities and career progression pathways for Black, Asian, and other ethnic minority groups. You can see the plan here.
  3. Increased training for matchday stewards to better deal with fan misbehavior.
  4. Penalties for fans found to include league wide bans. No longer can a fan create an issue for one team/stadium. You’ll get banned across the EPL
  5. Working with social media companies to identify online fan abuse.

There really is no argument that soccer has had a bad history in this regards and that these additional steps are necessary and a clear indication that the EPL is serious about this issue. Now that said, I do have some concerns with where this is heading. Can a fan no longer scream at a player “hey so and so you suck.” This is going to be interesting to see just what will be considered “bullying’ or “abuse”. But again overall its past time for this.

Also new for the season are new Covid protocols for fans. I don’t think anybody was thinking a year ago that we’d still be dealing with this pandemic but here we are. The good news for EPL fans is that stadiums will be allowed to have full capacity this season. The flip side is that fans will have to show proof of complete vaccination or a negative lateral flow test in the past 48 hours. Again, I have mixed feelings about this. But at the end of the day having a crowd in the stands sure makes for a better match experience. No more piped in crowd noise in empty stadiums.

Now enough of the social aspects for this season lets take a look at the rule changes for this year and how they may affect play.

  1. While FIFA still allows up to 5 substitutions per team, ultimate decisions in this regard fall to the actual competition. In the case of the EPL they have decided to return to the traditional 3 subs rule. However, they are still going to allow concussion related subs on an as needed basis.
  2. Much displeasure has been voiced over the use of VAR over the last several years the biggest complaint being that many goals have been called back via VAR for what most felt were extremely ticky tacky off side offenses such as a hand or toe being ahead of the second to last defender. To address this two changes are being introduced. First, the actual width of the VAR line in the video replay is going to be wider to counteract this “toe is offside” nonsense. Secondly and probably more important is that referees are being instructed to use the bottom of the attacking players armpit as the determination point. Hopefully this will improve the use of VAR. To show how this change will actually work take a close look at the lead in picture from last season. Under the previous guidance this goal was called back. They ruled the player in red at the top of the picture was off.. Under this years guidance it would stand.
  3. Changes have been made to the calling of an incidental handball. Incidental handballs that lead to an attacking play or goal are no longer to be called as an infraction UNLESS the referee determines that the player intentionally made himself bigger. While there will still be a fair bit of interpretation here the referee is in better position now to use some smarts. The key here is that if a players arms are in a motion that would be expected by the physical action of their body then it is an incidental handball. Certainly this still will have interpretation and opinion built in but its a major improvement in my opinion. As a former player I can say that its damn hard to be running at a full sprint and keep your arms tucked tight against your body. Talk about unnatural!

So there’s some background now lets dive into the 20 sides playing in the EPL this season and what we can expect to see from them.

Arsenal

Last Season – 8th

The last 5 seasons they have finished 5th, 6th, 5th, 8th, and 8th. This is probably a make or break season for manager Mikel Arteta who has had 18 months to show some progress. The problem is they have been too erratic. Stretches where the look to be regressing then they have a run like the end of last season where the finish with 5 straight wins. The side has gone younger bringing in transfers Albert Sambi Lokanga (midfield), Nuno Tavares (left back), and Ben White (backline) all whom are under 24. Time to make a move at least upwards.

Projection – 6th

Aston Villa

Last Season – 11th

The good news for Villa fans is that they have been moving up the ranks. Three seasons climbing the ladder in the Championship then 17th then 11th the last two seasons in the EPL. They have bolstered their program brining in several talented and experienced players (Ashley Young, defender)(Leon Bailey, forward)(Danny Ings, striker). But alas they took a huge hit last week when midfielder Jack Grealish was sold to Manchester City. They will have a hard time replacing him. Still they got 14 goals last season from Ollie Watkins in his first season in the EPL. They will need him to continue with increase his goal numbers this year.

Projection – 11th

Brentford

Last Season – 3rd in the Championship

To succeed they are going to need a several things to happen. First, Ivan Toney is going to have to continue to score goals like he did last year in the Championship. Second, they are going to need to figure out if they are going to play a three or four man backline. They are a good passing side but may not have the depth to keep that up if they go with a 4 man back. They need more midfielders on the field to maintain possession. And lastly, and most important they are going to have to quickly acclimate to the faster paced game at the Premier level.

Projection – 19th

Brighton and Hove Albion

Last Season – 16th

After being promoted for the 2017-2018 season they have finished 15th, 17th, 15th, and 16th. Just staying above relegation but not moving up into a more comfortable position. Look for that to change this year. They have brought in a box to box midfielder in Enoch Mwepu. Pairing him in the middle with Yves Bissouma will make them very strong in the middle of the field. Losing Ben White will hurt. But they did get almost $70M. Look for them to parlay that money to a big signing or two yet this transfer window or this winter.

Projection – 13th

Burnley

Last season – 17th

Burnley could be known as the “yo-yo” based upon their last 5 seasons having finished 16th, 7th, 15th, 10th, and 17th. So will this year be another bump up? Their problem is mostly one of depth. The starting XI play a sound fundamental game. But when even one piece is missing the sum falls further than it should. They have chosen to pretty much rely on their same roster hoping that another year together will just improve them enough to earn them 40 points on the season as that seems to be the magic line where ownership has said that if they can achieve that they will open up the checking account. They probably should have made that last year but after winning 1 and losing 4 down the stretch they stalled on 39 points. Come on owners. One point short. Do something!

Projection – 15th

Chelsea

Last Season – 4th

What a fun season to be a Blues fan. Once again they get to play with the best of the best qualifying for the UCL. But even better they are returning as champions! Manager Thomas Tuchel, took over last January for a team with a lot of talent but mired in poor form. Well he righted the ship in a big way and with a full season at the helm fans are excited. While Blues fans are disappointed they couldn’t pry Erling Haaland away from Dortmand, they did pick up a pretty solid alternative in Romalu Lukaku. The Belgian striker has really upped his game the past several years and is going to provide a big target in the middle of the penalty area for Christian Pulisic, Kai Havertz, and Mason Mount. And his presence may also benefit Timo Werner who does all he is supposed to do for Chelsea except the most important thing. Finish. They have finished no worse than 5th in any of the last 5 seasons and that’s not changing. They have the tools to challenge for the title.

Prediction – 2nd

Crystal Palace

Last Season – 14th

After finishing 14th, 11th, 12th, 14th, and 14th they are looking to make some changes. Comfortably finishing above the relegation zone is fine but at some point you have to try and move up the table. Patrick Viera has been brought in as the manager and to instill a more attractive, attacking style of soccer. And to provide a place for their youth to showcase their stuff. The problem is that they are not quite ready to shine. Viera is going to rely on Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke to hold the side together while the young talent get their feet wet. They will suffer some growing pains this season. The question is can than weather a bit of downturn while the young players acclimate without digging themselves too big a hole.

Prediction – 17th

Everton

Last Season – 10th

So what do you do after you finish 10th with one of the most renowned managers (Carlo Ancelotti) in the game? Well you fire them and hire another manager. Their 5th, Rafael Benitez, in the last 5 years. After being bought 5 years ago for the paltry sum of $700M, ok it was really just $692M, owner Farhard Moshiri is demanding to say the least. Curious in many Toffee’s fans is why they chose he chose to hire Benitez? They have long memories at Goodison Park and recall no so fondly the remark Benitez made as the manager of Liverpool 14 years ago, referring to Everton as a “small club.” But like in all sports, news seasons bring new hope and dreams. And they need some hope coming off the poor finish last season winning only 3 times in their final 13 matches. This year those hopes are going to rely heavily on newcomers Andros Townsend and Demarai Gray serving balls into the middle for Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Oh, and a keeper by the name of Jordan Pickford. The keeper who just lead England to the Euros 2020 final. Pickford is good, really good.

Prediction – 7th

Leeds United

Last Season – 9th

The Whites finished 7th, 13th, 3rd, and 1st in the Championship getting them promoted to the EPL for last season. And what a season it was finishing 9th. Most years promoted teams are well down in the table fighting to keep from getting relegated right back to the Championship but not so these guys. They finished very strong too earning 23 points in there last 10 matches and only allowing 8 goals in their last 11. A +8 goal differential for a newly promoted team is just outstanding and gives them hopes of moving up the table enough this year to get into a UEFA league. Kalvin Phillips had a strong season in the midfield and was a key cog in England’s run to the final in the Euros. But the key for this season will once again lie on the shoulders of Patrick Bamford. The forward tallied 17 goals and 7 assists last season and will need to repeat that for Leeds to be successful this year. The problem may be that the only transfer they obtained of note was Junior Firpo from Barcelona but he really just replaces the loss of Ezgjan Alioski. Solid again this season but probably short of a UEFA league slot.

Prediction – 10th

Leicester City

Last Season – 5th

Leicester just had two downfalls last year keeping them out of UCL. First they just suffered a ton of injuries and then they faltered down the stretch going 1-1-3 to finish 1 point out of a UCL slot. Still they are in the Eruopa League this year so all is not lost. And Leicester fans also know that the pieces are there and point to the FA Cup win over Chelsea as proof they are among the best. The biggest news this summer was the signing of Patson Daka, the Red Bull Salzburg attacker. He may end up being a bargain. They need Daka to get up to EPL speed quickly as two key players (Kelechi Iheanacho and Ndidi) will be lost for a period of time in January as they are called into national team duty during the African Nations Cup.

Prediction – 5th

Liverpool

Last Season – 3rd

The Reds just keep trucking along having finished in the top 4 the last 5 years and expect that to continue. They had a mis-season implosion last year that put their hopes for a UCL spot in serious doubt and there was no question that they were not going to defend their EPL title. Fans were calling for changes but ownership stayed the course and manager Jurgen Klopp turned the team around big time. They took 26 of a possible 30 points the last 10 matches and finished earning the coveted UCL spot. Much of their woes the first 2/3 of last season were injuries especially at the center back position. Losing Virgil Van Dijk, arguably the best defender on the planet, was just a terrible blow. But they also lost their #2 and #3 center backs and the dominoes fell from there. They just had to shift players around and it lead to the club being in disarray until late in the season when the plugged in pieces started to figure it out. All three center backs are back in training so Reds fans are hopeful. Additionally they signed Ibrahima Konate, the young French center back, to give them additional options. The biggest question this year will be how much they miss Georginio Wijnaldum who moved on to French club Paris Saint Germain?

Projection – 4th

Manchester City

Last Season – 1st

Citizen fans are once again excited not as if that’s something new. They have finished atop the table in 3 of the last 5 seasons and have never finished below 3rd in that span. The biggest disappointment this summer was their inability to pry Harry Kane away from Tottenham. At least hot yet. But they did bring in Jack Grealish so once again with or without Kane Man City looks to be the league favorite. Even losing all time leading goal scorer Sergio Aguero. Manager, Pep Guardiola knows the right strings to pull every match and his players know he is a master tactician. They aim to not only lift the EPL trophy but a UCL one as well. Time will tell.

Prediction – 1st

Manchester United

Last Season – 2nd

Man U continues to perform well day in and day out. But they have one flaw that has their fans frustrated and that being the failure to win a trophy under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Winning is great but at this level its about trophies. To that aim the Red Devils have bought in two big guns. Forward Jadon Sancho from Dortmund and center back Rafael Varane from Real Madrid. One of the issues the last several years has been the inconsistent play of the back line. Varane will help that immensely. The missing piece may be at center forward where time will be shared between Edson Cavani (who turns 35 this season) and youngster Mason Greenwood. But the key to their success this year may like with Harry McGuire and Luke Shaw. Both of these defenders showed very well in Euros and that they can provide attacking support down the wings especially Shaw.

Projection – 3rd

Newcastle

Last Season – 12th

Since promotion 4 seasons ago Newcastle has always finished mid table and last year was no exception and its unlikely that this year will be either. However, do expect them to drop back a bit this year. Probably not down to the relegation zone but a few spots back. Fans are a mixed bag when it comes to how they thing the team has performed under manager Steve Bruce. Some feel he has done fine with the tools at his disposal (not a big money club) and others feel that he should get more out of a side that has players in the attack like Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin. The truth is probably closer to the former than the later. The problem for this season is that they are pretty much going with last year’s roster. They haven’t signed anyone of note yet. The bottom line is that when you stay stagnant you fall back. Other teams have upped their gain but the Magpies haven’t.

Prediction – 14h

Norwich City

Last Season – 1st in the Championship

Welcome to the show Canaries. But don’t get too comfortable in your seats as its going to be tough to stay. History has a way of repeating itself. Three years ago they won the Championship and were promoted. Then they finished last and were relegated right back. But they are also a different looking team these days. While they scored 18 fewer goals than the team promoted back then they also allowed 21 fewer and have numerous more clean sheets. They have the physical ability to hold more possession now and that is always a big plus. Their key player is probably Scottish international Grant Hanley. Stout defender who is comfortable on the ball and very fast. But their most intriguing player may be newcomer Josh Sargent. Sargent comes over from Werder Bremen to bolster their attack. Fans of the USMNT will be watching him closely to see if he ups his goal scoring rate. The Nats are in dire need of one of their forwards to step up and start producing as they gear up for WC 2022 qualifying which begins next month.

Prediction – 18th

Southhampton

Last Season – 15th

The good news for a mid table side is that they can score. The bad news is they allow goals, in bunches. In fact they allowed the second most goals in the league last season and still finished 15th! The problem for them this year is the loss of Danny Ings. How do you replace your leading goal scorer? Well in this case apparently you don’t. They will rely on captain and tireless midfielder James Ward-Prowse to run the show. Ward-Prowse is a good one but he is going to have his hands full. Its just hard to imagine that Adam Armstrong and Armando Broja can fill the void left by Ings.

Prediction – 16th

Tottenham

Last Season – 7th

The Spurs fans have let out a sigh of relief, at least for the time being. All indications were that they would lose world class striker Harry Kane during the summer transfer window. They were offered on the order of $140M (on par with the fee Man City paid for Jack Grealish) but they turned that down. Perhaps club management thinks that an unhappy Kane is worth more to them than that figure. The problem with the London club is their slide the last 5 years. Granted the lowest they have finished has been 7th but they have finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 7th. Certainly trending the wrong direction. The question becomes can new manager Nuno Espirito Santo turn around the team from the direction Jose Mourinho had them headed? The biggest move has been the addition of Argentinian center back Cristain Romero. If Kane stays AND he is happy they could move up a notch or two. If Kane leaves or is unhappy they could drop down a spot or two.

Projection – 6th

Watford

Last Season – 2nd in the Championship

Back to the EPL after just one season is the good news. The problem is that they just don’t have the horsepower to stay. They had a 3 year stretch going from 17th, to 14th, to 11th. Then they took a nose dive and fell to 19th and were relegated. The issue with Watford is a lack of continuity. They transfer players in and out like a popcorn machine. Sometimes it comes out buttered and salty and other times is near tasteless. And this summer has been no different. They have brought in 13 new faces to replace 16 that have left. That is just not a recipe for success.

Prediction – 20th

West Ham United

Last Season – 6th

What a wonderful season for the Hammers! Qualifying for the Europa League and just 2 points short of a UCL berth was a lot to be excited about at London Stadium. The strength of this side is in the middle of the field. Few teams have a midfield pairing the quality of Declan Rice and Tomas Soucek. Rice had an outstanding Euros for England and is now sought after by numerous clubs. Hammer fans are hoping he sticks around! When they sold striker Sebastien Haller to Ajax last January it let them a hole up top. Michail Antonio is the only striker on their roster and even he has played wide as much as in the middle. If he goes down to injury they could be in trouble. They have been pursuing Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham and Barcelona’s Martin Braithwaite but nothing has happened yet. They need to move sooner rather than later.

Prediction – 9th

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Last Season – 13th

They have been a strong defensive side for the last several years and new manager Bruno Lage will continue that. His Benfica club only allowed 26 goals in 34 matches during his one full season there. The biggest change over the summer was the selling of keeper Rui Patricio and will be replaced by Jose Sa. The Portuguese keeper led Olympiacos to consecutive Greek league titles but he has big shoes to fill. The player to keep an eye on will be Raul Jimenez returning from a season ending injury. If he regains his pre-injury form good things could happen in Molineux.

Prediction – 12th

The 30th season of the EPL kicks off tomorrow with Brentford hosting Arsenal then the rest of the clubs start play on Saturday and Sunday. The summer transfer window closes August 31 so teams still have two full weeks to make some moves. Interesting to see if any big moves occur during the rest of this window. And if not there’s always the winter window for your favorite team to bolster their roster.

Steve Birrer
Steve Birrer

Soccer Analyst

Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.

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