English Premier League 2024-2025: The Final Month

With a mere 6 matches left in the season (Newcastle United, Fulham, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace have 7 left) there is still a lot to be played for. Its been a very competitive season and any team is capable of winning on a given day. Well any team except for Southampton. Its also been a season with limited external distractions. The Financial Fair Play (FFP) investigation into Manchester City was completed in December and we are still waiting to hear the verdict and what, if any, sanctions will be put in place. The EPL does not have a standard set of sanctions for FFP violations so its hard to know just what the impact will be if and when the final decision is announced. But this investigation is for alleged violations that occurred between 2009 and 2018 so it seems like if nothing else the clubs have gotten the message not to mess around with the league financial rules.

With the final matches set for Sunday May 25th lets take a look at just what major outcomes are still to be determined.

EPL Title

Currently Liverpool sits in first place with 76 points, Arsenal is in second with 63 points, Nottingham Forest is in 3rd with 57 points, and Newcastle United is in 4th with 56 points but they have a game in hand.  Realistically it will take a monumental flop by Liverpool to not win their first title since the 2019-2020 season. They are 13 points clear of Arsenal. If the Gunners were to win out they would end on 81 points meaning Liverpool would need just 5 points in their last 6 matches to win the title. The Reds are so far ahead in goal differential that they only need to tie in points to win the title. Man City has been mathematically eliminated from the title contention so their consecutive title streak will end at 4. Spoiler Alert: Liverpool’s Mo Salah is leading the league in scoring this year AND in assists. He’s been crazy good and its why the Reds are going to win the title. Its worth noting that 4 times in the history of the EPL a player has lead the league in goals and assists. Salah is one of those (2021-2022). He’s going to be the first to do so twice.

European Competitions

There are three European competitions slated for 2025-2026. Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League. Certainly winning the EPL is the primary goal for the clubs but qualifying for the following seasons European competitions is not far behind. Top notch competitions and a lot of revenue. Trying to describe how teams qualify is a fairly complex story. There are lots of paths to getting in but I’ll try and simplify it as much as possible.

UEFA Champions League (UCL)

The top 4 teams from the EPL season qualify for the following UCL. That is a given. However, there are a couple of twists that can increase the number of EPL teams to 5. If a club wins UCL, Europa League, Conference League, or does well in domestic tournaments and didn’t qualify directly by finishing in the top 4 then they also earn a bid. And there are 2 at large bids that go to clubs in a domestic league whose National team has earned enough points in European competitions. And this year England has done that so there will be a 5th EPL club in UCL this fall.

At this point, Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United are in line to earn the top 4 spots. But Man City, Chelsea, and Aston Villa are all within one game of moving up into the top 4.Fulham and Brighton Hove Albion currently sit 8 points out of the top 4 and probably can’t make a run. Even if they were to get hot down the stretch there are too many team ahead of them. Still its possible.

Now here’s where it starts to get tricky. The winner of this years UCL gets a berth for next season if they didn’t also qualify by another means. Aston Villa and Arsenal are in the quarterfinals. Arsenal is likely to finish in the top 4 of the EPL. But Aston Villa is probably on the outside looking in. But if they were to win UCL they would get in next season. Manchester United and Tottenham are both still alive in the Europa League. If one of them were to win that title then they would earn a spot in UCL next year. And as crazy as it sounds neither one of those clubs is likely to even finish in the top 10 in the EPL this year. In fact Man U will probably have their worst EPL season in history. They finished 8th last year and are 10 points out of 8th place at the moment. And lastly there is the Conference League. Chelsea is still alive in that league and is in fact favored to win it. So Chelsea has two paths right now to get in as they still have a solid chance to finish top 4 in the EPL.

Europa League

The EPL gets 2 spots in the Europa League. Because the EPL got the extra UCL spot for next season these 2 spots will go to the 6th place team in EPL and the winner of the FA Cup. However, if the winner of the FA Cup finishes in the top 6 of the EPL then the 7th place team in EPL would get a Europa League spot. Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Man C, and Nottingham Forest are in the semifinals. Crystal Palace winning would not alter the Europa bids but there is a good chance that any of the other 3 could win and also finish in the top 6.

Conference League

Now it gets really complicated. Newcastle United has already won the Carabao Cup earning them a spot in Conference League. However, Newcastle is also likely to qualify for UCL or Europa League. And then the Conference League spot could drop down to team 8 in the EPL or that spot could be surrendered. Suffice it to say that there are a lot of teams that still have a shot at European competitions next fall and the final alignments may go down to the last matchday.

If you are interested in reading about these permutations in more depth here’s a good article to check out.

https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/44372662/how-premier-league-teams-qualify-champions-league-europe

Relegation

The dreaded relegation zone. The bottom 3 spots in the EPL that get demoted to the English Championship. And this year the three teams promoted after last season, Ipswich Town, Leicester City, and Southampton are likely to go back down. Southampton has already “clinched” a relegation spot, the earliest that has happened in EPL history. And both the other 2 clubs could be relegated as soon as this coming weekend. Yes you have to play it out but Ipswich Town is 14 points behind both West Ham and Wolverhampton. If they were to win out they would end on 39 points meaning that West Ham and Wolverhampton would need just 4 points in their final 6 matches to tie but they both are way ahead in goal differential. So its all but a done deal.

The Rest

The rest of the teams may not have a shot at earning a spot in Europe nor nave to worry about relegation but they still have plenty to play for.

1. Play the role of spoilers. Their performances over the last month can impact those teams above them in their drive to earning European spots.  A bit of late season moral victories you could say.
2. More importantly its an opportunity to play some of their younger players. Try some different formations and tactics. Get a final idea on what pieces they want to keep in the fold and what pieces they are ready to move on from during the summer transfer window. Its a good time to get a leg up on their needs for next year.
3. While its a bit odd for most fans to understand there is something about a “top 10” finish. Perhaps it encourages ownership to increase their investments in that they are trending in the right direction. Or perhaps in the case of Man U its maybe the opposite. Why should be have the second highest payroll in the EPL if we can’t even finish in the top 10? About the only way Man U can salvage anything positive from this year will be to win the Europa League.

Well there you have it. Its been a terrific season and though its down to the final month there is still a ton of great soccer left to play and some intriguing stories to watch. With as many as 9 or 10 teams still with shots at Europe its going to be fun.