There’s a scene that hasn’t played on in England in almost three months. But should be on a TV near you soon. All clubs in the EPL were allowed to begin contact training on May 28. A third round of testing was completed on May 30 and no positive tests were found. However, after a fifth round of testing of almost 1200 players and staff it was confirmed on June 3 that Tottenham did have one positive test. So its pretty much good news and it is expected that the twice weekly testing will continue and they will handle any positive cases individually. So lets play some soccer!
All 20 clubs have been in full training for almost two weeks and most have already ramped up to having some 11v11 scrimmages in preparation for next weeks restart. The first two matches will be held on June 17 with Aston Villa hosting Sheffield United and Manchester City hosting Arsenal. That will finish up Matchday 29 leaving all teams with 9 matches to complete the season. Thankfully, the league has figured out a path to complete the full regular season as well as the FA Cup. So other than a necessary delay, the season will finish up nicely and no asterisk signs will be needed in the record books. But more importantly this ensures that qualification for Champions and Europa League as well as promotion/relegation will be done correctly (and not some hocus pocus mathematical calculation like they are doing in France). And as expected all matches will be held in empty stadiums. Its been interesting to watch the Bundesliga matches where you can hear everything the players and coaches are saying. Too bad I don’t speak German. But during the EPL matches it will bring an extra level of interest for those who have played much soccer. Be able to hear what they are communicating will give you much greater insight into what teams are trying to accomplish. Watching the play is only a fair indicator as you are unsure if a given set of actions were what a team was attempting to do or if it was a botched play.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
So what do have to look for the rest of the way?
League Champions
There is zero doubt its Liverpool. They are an insane 25 points ahead of second place Manchester City. The Reds only need 6 points in their final 9 matches to host their first league title in 30 years. Their next two matches are against mid table Everton and Crystal Palace. Don’t be surprised to see them win both of those and be done with it.
Champions and Europa League Qualification?
Now this area has some questions. Some teams are likely as good as in, some are on the cusp, and some will need a strong finish to get in. Remember that typically the top 4 EPL teams qualify for Champions League. Then it gets a bit tricky for Europa League. The easy one is that 5th place in the EPL gets into Europa. Additionally, the winner of the FA Cup qualifies for the Group Stage and the winner of the EFL Cup qualifies for the second qualifying round. But here is where it gets tricky.
a. The winner of the current Champions League qualifies for the next season even if they finish outside the top 4 in the EPL. In that event then 5 teams actually qualify.
b. If the 5th place team happens to also have won either the FA or EFL Cups then they qualify for Europa as does the 6th place finisher.
If the league were to have stopped play with the current standings, then Liverpool, Man City, Leicester City, and Chelsea would qualify for Champions League and Man United would take the Europa League spot. But thankfully we get to finish the season the right way so what can we expect?
Clearly Liverpool will qualify and expect that Man City with a 12 point lead over 5th place and a game to take the second spot. Leicester City has a 8 point lead over 5th place so they should make it in barring a collapse. Currently sitting in fourth is Chelsea with a slim 3 point lead over 5th. While my club, Man United, sits in 5th I am still pulling for Chelsea to hold a spot. The more USMNT players that get to play in Champions League next season the better it will be for us in World Cup qualifying. You just can’t get that top level experience in the domestic leagues.
For the Europa League, Man United hold but a slim 2 point lead over both Wolverhampton and Sheffield United. However, the Sheffies have a game in hand and could move into 5th with a win on the 17th. Tottenham, Arsenal. Burnley, and Crystal Palace also are within 6 points of 5th place. Of course the problem they hold is the number of teams in front of them. They not only have to finish strong but get some help.
FA Cup
The remaining matches for the FA Cup will begin on June 27th. The semi-finals will be held over the weekend of July 18-19 with the final being held on August 1.
Coming up are the quarter-finals and there are some interesting matchups. First up Norwich hosts Man United. Man United has two pathways to making a European league next season. And both paths are totally in their control. Win the FA Cup or maintain their 5th place finish in the EPL. On the other hand Norwich doesn’t have much to play for (more on them in the next section). But advancing to the next round would be a bright spot in their otherwise dismal season. Then there is Newcastle hosting Man City and Sheffield United hosting Arsenal. Man City should win but the the Sheffies and Gunners is a solid toss up.
Then the most interesting quarter-final match has Leicester City hosting Chelsea. Both of these teams are well positioned to make Champions League but a trophy would cap off a nice season.
Relegation
And finally the dreaded relegation zone. The bottom three EPL finishers are headed out. And right now that is Norwich City, Aston Villa, and Bournemouth. Norwich is 4 points behind next to last Aston Villa (which have a game in hand) and they will need a small miracle to not get relegated after just earning promotion last year. Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Watford, West Ham, and Brighton and Hove Albion all sit within 4 points of each other and are at serious risk.
So there is finally some English soccer around the corner and some great storylines the rest of the way. Best of all? EVERY single match from here on out will be televised. Start times for all games are staggered to enable this as teams try and recoup as much of their losses as possible.
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.