Nothing illustrates the beauty of sports like what happened this past Sunday in Southampton, England at St. Mary’s Stadium. While not a huge upset, the result was clearly not expected. The Saints scored early when Danny Ings found the back of the net lobbing in the chipped free kick from James Ward-Prowse. That second minute goal ended up being the only goal of the match. Somehow the home side found a way to earn a clean sheet against the EPL #1 team and top scoring side. With that surprise story lets take a look at the overall picture in the EPL.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Back in early September a preview took a look at how they EPL 2020-2021 season might shape up. Sides were grouped together in three pots, Top Flight (those with a legit shot at finishing in the top 4 and qualifying for next years UEFA Champions League), the Middle of the Pack (those not likely to push for a top spot but probably safe from being relegated), and the Relegation Zone (self explanatory). If you want a refresher here’s a link to that preview.
Now that the EPL is on their mid-winter break, enough matches have been played to get a good sense of where each side is headed. First a bit of clarification. While the EPL is on break the teams are not. The semi-final matches for the League Cup (Carabao Cup) and the third round of matches for the FA Cup are being held this week. While that means that some players will get rested, the teams by and large are still quite busy. EPL matches will resume again on Tuesday, January 12th. So lets hand out a report card of sorts and break teams down and lump them in three different pots. But the pots will have a different slant than the preview pots. As a caveat note that this report card is going to just talk to the current standings based on points and not get into all the permutations of goal differentials and head to head tie breakers.
Exceeding Expectations:
Certainly the pot you want to be in. Whether a fan sees their side trying to win the title or a Cup, to qualify for UCL to play some competitive soccer, or to simply avoid relegation.
Aston Villa – These guys get an A++. Picked my many as a likely relegation zone side, they are tied for 8th right now. Although their form of late has dropped off a bit (2-2-1 in their last 5) they have been a very pleasant surprise for Villa fans!. Will this level of play hold the rest of the way? Hard to say but they are playing sound fundamental football and should be very safe from falling down to the relegation zone. And it doesn’t hurt when your keeper, Emiliano Martinez is leading the league in clean sheets. As for scoring its interesting that they are tied for 6th in the league in goals but do not have a single player in the top 10 in scoring. But Ollie Watkins, Anwar El Ghazi, and Jack Grealish are sitting just outside the top 10.
Southampton – This side gets a big A for their play so far. Not only did they beat Liverpool last Sunday but they are sitting tied for 4th in the league. And they have done so with a good balance between scoring goals and a solid defense. The are currently tied for the league lead in clean sheets with 8 in their 17 matches. Good times for Saints fans both in England and New Orleans (ok shameless plug). I suspect they will slip some the rest of the way but they are a tough out right now.
Manchester United = Another A on my report card. While they were listed as a Top Flight side in the preview its hard not to like what you are seeing at Old Trafford. They are tied with Liverpool at the top of the standings and actually have a game in hand. And their form in the EPL of late has been outstanding having won 4 and drawing 1 in their last 5 matches. If manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can keep his team players from in fighting they may well hang near the top the rest of the way.
Leeds United – While they haven’t quite earned an A they sure are playing better than expected sitting in 12th place and well ahead of the relegation zone. They are an interesting team in that they seem to have no middle of the road. They either play really well and win or not so good an lose demonstrated by their last 5 matches. In that stretch they won 3 and lost 2. They have had wins of 5-0, 1-0, and 5-2 and losses of 6-2 and 3-0. A little more consistency would be nice to see the rest of the way.
Everton – Well they may have been preseason middle of the pack but they are playing solid soccer and find themselves sitting in 7th. They don’t do anything exceedingly well but they don’t do anything poorly either. But what they have done is put together a nice little run going 4-0-1 in their last 5 matches including wins over Leicester City and Chelsea. Doubt they really press or have to tools to earn a UCL spot. But so far kudos to Toffees!
Meeting Expectations
Whether a fan is ok with their side “meeting expectations” depends almost entirely on which pot you thought there belonged in back in the preseason preview. A team could be meeting expectations and playing well (Liverpool) or playing poorly (West Bromwich Albion). All a matter of perspective. Here I am going to just list the appropriate teams in the order of their current place in the standing. As you might expect, most teams will fall into this category.
Liverpool – Here sit the Reds atop the EPL yet only graded as meeting expectations. How can that be? Well its simple. They are the reigning champions and everyone’s preseason pick to repeat. They are loaded with talent, have one of the best coaches in the game in Jurgen Klopp. Mo Salah is still once again leading the league in goals and Jordan Henderson is 3rd in completed passes. The biggest issue for them thus far is in the back. Losing all world defender Virgil Van Dijk to an ACL injury has clearly created problems and their defense is just not as stout. Still they ARE sitting in first (albeit with a game extra played) but still. And the way his rehab has been going there is a chance he may be back by the end of the season.\
Leicester City – Actually wouldn’t have been any kind of stretch to put this side in the exceeding expectations group. They are sitting in 3rd and have been playing well having gone 2-2-1 in their last 5. If Jamie Vardy continues scoring at the pace he has done so far they will certainly be in the mix for a UCL spot come the end of the season.
Manchester City – Until a few weeks ago the Citizens could have been down in the bottom pot! But don’t blink because you might miss this speeding train. They have gone 3-2-0 in their last 5 and have won straight beating both Chelsea and Southampton in that stretch. They have allowed a league low 13 goals in their 15 matches. The saying Defense wins Championships may be a cliche. But most cliches have a basis to them! They have also played the fewest matches so far so they can easily jump well up the table quickly. Kevin De Bruyne is 2nd in the league in assists and Andrew Robertson leads all players in successful passes. Bottom line? If you were rating teams on just the last 2 weeks of play they would have gotten an A+. But the report card is for the entire season so far. But don’t overlook this team. Oh, and they trounced Manchester United yesterday in their Carabao Cup semi-final.
Tottenham Hotspurs – The good news is they are still sitting in 4th place. The bad news is that it’s not due to their latest form. They have not very good lately going 1-2-2. Now to be fair their 2 losses were to Liverpool and Leicester so its not like they were losing to bottom feeders. Still if you want to earn a spot in UCL you have to play better. The other good news is that the Spurs have Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min the top scoring duo in the league. In fact the duo have combined (goal by one assisted by the other) 13 times so far this season. Tying the league record set 26 seasons ago. And they have done so well less than half the season. Suffice it to say, barring major injury, they are going to smash the record.
Crystal Palace – Right where projected. They are ok just not good. They do have Wilfried Zaha scoring goals. Good thing because if they lose him the won’t score at all and their defense isn’t good enough to keep them afloat if they aren’t scoring. Still come the end of the season they should be safe.
Newcastle United – Similar to above. Right where they belong. Enough talent to not be overlooked but trending in the wrong direction going 0-2-3 in their last five. Still they are 8 points clear of the relegation zone and should be able to stay up next season. But they better turn this slide around.
Burnley – Similar to Newcastle but headed in a different direction. They have been on a bit of an upswing the last several weeks having gone 3-1-1. They had been hovering near the relegation zone but this little run has moved them 6 points clear. Still no margin for error here.
Brighton Hove Albion – Projected to be around the relegation zone and that’s right where they are. Sitting one spot above relegation. The good news is they manage to get a lot of draws. That may be enough to keep them up next season.
Fulham – Projected to be in the relegation zone and that’s where they sit albeit at the top of the zone so they would only need to move up one spot to stick. They do have 2 games in hand over BHA so they certainly have a shot to move up.
West Bromwich Albion – As projected. Sitting down in relegation land. Do they have a realistic chance to move up? In a word, no. They have allowed a league worst 39 goals. Six more than next worst Leeds. But at least Leeds does score having tallied 30 goals. WBA does not having only found the next 11 times. That minus 28 goal differential is by far the worst in the league. Goodbye to you.
Underachieving
The no fun zone. The place where no fans are really happy. What’s to like? Your team has more talent and abilities than they are showing on the field. Changes are needed. Whether that is different players, a new manager, or a different tactic. But continuing to do the same things isn’t going to cut it.
Chelsea – Yes they are sitting in 9th but only 3 points back of 4th. But they have played 17 matches and 5 of the teams ahead of them in the standings have played only 16 or even 15. They have floundered in their last 5 going 1-1-3 and they have looked poorly to boot. Lots of rumors flying around that manager Frank Lampard is on a very short leash. He should be. This club has UCL level talent but they are not putting it together on the field. On the plus side they do have a +11 goal differential. Still they must get more in the attack from Timo Werner.
Arsenal – A team that has been underperforming but has at least shown some life the last two weeks. Projected to be in the top flight group they floundered for most of the season thus far. But have turned things around a bit going 3-1-1 of late. Still they sit down in 11th place. They are literally 50-50 when it comes to scoring and allowing goals. Scored 20 and allowed 19. They will need to improve on that to make any kind of push up the rest of the way. Doubt it happens and they will probably finish in the middle.
Wolverhampton Wanderers – Another disappointing side thus far. They seemed to have the talent to be a top 7 or 8 team and if things fell right to finish even a spot or so above that. But things have not gone their way. They don’t score (18 goals in 17 matches) and they allow too many (24) and they are trending in the wrong direction of late having gone 1-2-2. They are probably ahead enough at this point to not have to worry about relegation but not sure they can make a run to a top 10 finish either.
Sheffield United – The get an F. Not sugar coating it. They are bad. Historic bad. In their 17 matches they have only scored 8 times. Less than half a goal per match and their -21 goal differential is second worst in the league. I guess if you are going to be bad then go all in and be really bad. They have a total of 2 points in their 17 matches. Yes that means they have zero wins. Two draws and 15 defeats. Abysmal and Sheffie fans are very unhappy. What’s to like about this team? I guess you could say that sometimes its fun to watch David McGoldrick. Or perhaps you might like their uniforms. Other than that they suck.
Over half the season remains and lots can happen. But fully expect the top money clubs to again to have a chokehold on the top UCL spots.
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.