Evaluating the Biggest Winners and Losers of the Transfer Portal in College Basketball (So Far)

Winner- Providence

Just one season after Providence landed a handful of transfers that led the program to the first Big East Regular Season title in school history, Ed Cooley is going back to the well. The Friars are set to lose guys like Al Durham, Justin Minaya, and Noah Horchler, who weren’t all just key pieces to Providence but they also came from the Transfer Portal.

There isn’t a better sell to a transfer than “Look at all of these players that we’re in the same exact shoes as you a year ago. How did they turn out?” That is exactly what Cooley has done, as there hasn’t been someone to bring in a better group of players from the portal, than Providence. The first domino to fall was adding former Florida and Louisville sharpshooter, Noah Locke. At this point in Locke’s college career you know exactly what you are getting, as he has proven to shoot the ball well and should fit right in filling in for AJ Reaves. In addition, the Friars added Devin Carter and Bryce Hopkins from the SEC. Carter shined in somewhat limited action as a Freshman, averaging 9 points per game in only 18.7 minutes per game. After watching the success and maturity of Al Durham, who couldn’t find his way at Indiana, but turned into an All Big East caliber player, it is understandable why Providence is such an appealing option for any transfer. Bryce Hopkins is a former top 30 recruit, but failed to find a consistent role at Kentucky, on a team filled with future pros. Noe Hopkins will surely see much more action on the floor, with plenty of opportunity to develop and get better.

Finally, Providence brings in Clifton Moore, who averaged 12.9 points and 6.0 rebounds per game at La Salle. He is also a former teammate of current Friar and former La Salle player Ed Croswell, who is another transfer that had a very productive first year playing for Ed Cooley. With UConn Transfer Corey Floyd to put the icing on the cake, there isn’t a program that added more from the Transfer Portal than Providence. Ed Cooley has done a tremendous job using his past success in the portal to his advantage, as the Friars are hoping to continue last year’s momentum.

Loser- Iowa State

There wasn’t a better story in College Basketball in 2022, than TJ Otzelberger and his Iowa State Cyclones. Just one season after the program only won 2 games, Otz came in and immediately turned things around in his first season. After a flaming out start, the Cyclones were barely able to survive Big 12 play and win enough games to make the NCAA Tournament. Once they got there after getting a couple breaks, Iowa State found a way to make the Sweet 16, completing one of the greatest single season turnarounds in College Basketball history.

Despite the fact that leading scorer Izaiah Brockington would likely be moving on to the NBA after a breakout season, there was still plenty of optimism heading into next season in Aims. The Cyclones had a rising Sophomore Point Guard in Tyrese Hunter ready to breakout and possibly becoming an NBA player, after a phenomenal Freshman year. While similar to Providence, Otz could take advantage of the Transfer Portal again just like he did last offseason selling transfers on the success of guys like Brockington, Gabe Kalsheur, Caleb Grill and Jaz Kunc.

However, all that momentum was halted when Hunter announced his decision to enter the Transfer Portal. This was a controversial decision to many, as Hunter couldn’t have had a better Freshman season and decided to leave, which left Iowa State fans rightfully heartbroken but at the end of the day, we live in a new world. In today’s new era of College Basketball, players will have no problem seeking what they think is a better opportunity. It may not look right to some and coaches don’t love the idea of an ever-moving Transfer Portal, but it is the reality we live in today with the rule changes of transfers not having to sit out and NIL, coming in such a short amount of time. Hunter will surely make his fair share of NIL money playing at another school, which might also improve his NBA Draft stock as well. Despite Otz surely being able to get some more Transfers, this is still brutal for Iowa State. Hunter was set to be a popular prediction for Big 12 Player of the Year, and Iowa State will lose both of their leading scorers from a season ago.

Winner: Baylor

One of the more underrated things that has made Scott Drew so successful at Baylor, was the fact that he’s been getting Transfers to produce even before the rule change of not having to sit out. Baylor won a National Championship in 2021, in large part to guys like MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell. The one thing these guys have in common besides both winning a National Championship at Baylor, was that they were both transfers that had to sit out a full season, before stepping onto the floor at Baylor. That year off couldn’t have helped more as both players developed as professionals in route to winning a National Title. Alongside having past success with other transfers, having a program that has recently won a National Championship is another is another sell that not many others can beat. Scott Drew has already taken full advantage of that by bringing in some high-level transfers.

Primarily, Drew nabbed one of the more underrated players in the class Jalen Bridges. Bridges played the first 2 seasons of his college career at West Virginia, and developed the reputation of being a winning player in the Big 12. In early March following a win over TCU, West Virginia Coach Bob Huggins had some words to describe Bridges as a player.  “He’s a terrific basketball player. He can play multiple positions for us. He’ll probably go down as one of my all-time favorite guys because he cares so much about this team and so much about winning.” With Bridges already familiar with what it is like to play in the Big 12, there hasn’t been a more underrated pickup in the portal up to this point.

The Bears also added former BYU big man Caleb Lohner, who has the chance to be another underrated pickup. Lohner was the starting Power Forward for BYU in 2021 as a Freshman, contributing to the Cougars landing a #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Lohner averaged 7 points per game and 7.1 rebounds per game as a Freshman, before having a little bit of trouble putting it together on a consistent basis as a Sophomore. As a former Top 200 recruit Lohner’s talent was evident at BYU, and he’ll assuredly make an impact playing for Scott Drew.

Loser: Nevada

For anyone who followed the Steve Alford era at UCLA, they aren’t surprised to see him have a similar downward trajectory just three years into his tenure at Nevada. Alford made 3 Sweet 16’s to his first 4 years at UCLA, before things really started to unravel and it was evident that moving on would be best for both sides. It has been a similar trajectory at Nevada minus the NCAA Tournament success. Alford did a great job of taking advantage of the roster that former Nevada Coach Eric Mussleman left behind, winning 19 games in his first season of 2020. Nevada loomed to continue on that momentum built by bringing in guys like Grant Sherfield and Desmond Cambridge, and while it wasn’t perfect Nevada still won 16 games.

With everyone returning and the addition of former Top 30 Recruit Will Baker from the portal, 2022 was supposed to be the year for Alford to put Nevada back on the map. Unfortunately, the Wolfpack went 13-18 overall, finishing in 8th place in the Mountain West and being one of the most disappointing teams in College Basketball. Just when matters looked like they couldn’t have gotten worse, three of Nevada Top four scorers have entered the Transfer Portal this offseason, including Sherfeild, Cambridge and former Oregon State Forward Warren Washington, who has recently committed to Arizona State. Bringing in talent has never been the problem for Alford dating back to his UCLA days. With that being said, he usually has a difficult time taking advantage of that talent and turning it into wins. The Eric Mussleman era in Reno, feels like it occurred 10 years ago opposed to only 4 and Nevada fans are understandable in a tough spot right now.

Winner: Wyoming

The Mountain West will continue to get some recognition, but this time in a positive way! Jeff Linder has continued to do an impressive job building this Wyoming program, going into only his third year in charge. In 2022, Linder was able to lead Wyoming to their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2015 and only their third since 2002. Guys like Hunter Maldonado and Graham Ike became All Mountain West caliber players leading the way, and their supporting cast in 2023 should be much improved thanks to Linder’s work on the recruiting trail.

Wyoming was able to bring in a trio of Pac 12 Transfers including Ethan Anderson and Max Agbokpolo from USC and Jake Kyman from UCLA. While not many would expect any of these guys to be major impact players based on their individual numbers, they all do something differently and should fit this Wyoming program very well. Whether it’s Anderson’s ability to facilitate and defend, Agbonkpolo’s length, or Kyman’s elite ability to shoot the three, these guys should fit Wyoming perfectly as role players alongside their already established stars. It is very rare to succeed in the Transfer Portal, when you’re attempting to rebuild a team overnight and the new additions are the only guys you are relying on. With that being said, that is not the case here as Wyoming returns arguably two of the Top 3 players in the Mountain West to go alongside these three transfers from the Pac 12. Many doubted Wyoming heading into last season, after they lost the 2021 Mountain West Freshman of the Year Marcus Williams but Linder still managed to get his team to the NCAA Tournament behind the development of guys like Ike and Maldonado. Now those guys should be back with valuable tournament experience alongside three very talented players from the Pac 12. Wyoming should enter the 2023 season as a Top 25 team and the favorites to win a very good Mountain West Conference.

Loser: DePaul

An unintended consequence of changing the Transfer Rule so players will not have to sit out a year after leaving, hurts Mid Major schools in a large way when they are losing their best players. Those same circumstances have really hurt a DePaul program that finally built some positive momentum during the first year of the Tony Stubblefield era. For context, DePaul has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2004, which was when they were still a member of Conference USA before moving to the Big East. With not many expectations in Year 1, Stubblefield went 15-16 overall and 6-14 in the Big East, which was a massive improvement from the final years of the Dave Lietao era. The Blue Demons had some unforgettable moments, including going into Louisville, defeating the Cardinals in their own building and blowing out NCAA Tournament teams Marquette and Seton Hall on their home floor.

Unfortunately, a lot of that momentum felt as good as gone, when second leading scorer David Jones made a somewhat surprising announcement that he is entering the Transfer Portal. For a program like DePaul, recruiting and developing a kid like Jones is what will make them successful when they return to relevance. Jones came into DePaul as the #144 ranked recruit in the Class of 2020, averaging 14.5 points and 7.4 rebounds as a Sophomore. Although he didn’t commit to DePaul when the program was under Stubblefield’s watch, Jones’ leaving was not necessarily expected after his breakout campaign. Similar to Iowa State and Tyrese Hunter, fans were expecting the player to return to school and become a star, but ended up getting their hearts absolutely broken. Stubblefield is still the right man for the job as it is unfortunate but somewhat understandable after Jones left like Hunter, a coach that he didn’t necessarily commit to. However, with Jones back, DePaul having NCAA Tournament aspirations did not seem crazy at all. Now those plans might have to be put on hold, if Stubblefield can’t pull some more magic.

Winner: Arkansas

Part of what has made Razorback head Coach Eric Mussleman so successful throughout his first three years in Fayetteville, is that he’s been ahead of the curve on the Transfer Portal. Ever since his Nevada days, Mussleman has taken advantage of the portal by specializing in conceiving players looking for a new home, and that his program is the best place for them. By Mussleman’s 4th year at Nevada, he had a team full of transfers ranked in the Top 10 and a culture fully established. It hasn’t been much different at Arkansas, as Muss has already brought in guys like JD Notae, Justin Smith, Jalen Tate, Stanley Umude and Au’diese Toney and has had major success. Mussleman has continued that success this offseason, by bringing in arguably the best Transfer Class in College Basketball up to this point.

Arkansas has added Trevon Brazille from Missouri, Jalen Graham from Arizona State, and the Mitchell twins from Rhode Island, adding depth to a frontcourt that expects to have Jaylin Williams back into the picture, despite currently being in the NBA Draft while maintaining college eligibility. Brazille stood out every time Missouri took the floor, only averaging 6.6 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. With that being said, he was only as a Freshman and playing for a coach like Muss, could unlock things we haven’t seen before. In addition, Jalen Graham who really came on for Arizona State towards the end of the season, scoring in double digits in 7 of Arizona State’s final 10 games. With Mitchell providing frontcourt depth, something Arkansas hasn’t had much of under Mussleman, this class should help Arkansas in a big time way. Despite losing key contributors like Notae, Umude, Toney and Trey Wade, the Razorbacks have a chance to be special next season.

Arkansas brings in the second ranked recruiting class in College Basketball, behind guys like Nick Smith, Jordan Walsh and Anthony Black alongside hopefully Jaylin Williams. Having a core like that with guys from the portal to fill holes, Muss has built this roster nicely. His Razorbacks have a realistic chance of getting to the Final 4, after making it all the way to the Elite 8, in each of the last two seasons.

Loser: West Virginia

Bob Huggins was rightfully inducted into the 2022 Pro Basketball Hall of Fame, and the fact that it took this long was utterly ridiculous. Huggins has won over 300 games in his career while leading West Virginia to a Final 4 in 2010, and winning Coach of the Year in his conference on different occasions.

 Age is not something that should be held against coaches, especially the ones that have achieved as much as Huggins has. However, with all of this in mind, it is reasonable to ask if Huggins will be able to succeed in the new era of College Basketball. Huggins has had all of his success before the one-time transfer rule change and NIL. Unfortunately for West Virginia, since those rules have changed, they have lost guys such as Oscar Tshiebwe, Jalen Bridges, Sean McNeil and Isaiah Cottrell from the program. Very few players were transferring from the program, during Huggins very successful recent stretch of making 5 of 6 NCAA Tournament’s from 2015-2021.

One thing that hasn’t differed at all despite the rule changes, is winning in College Basketball comes with a few years’ experience within the program more often than not. Huggins developing guys like Jevon Carter, Miles McBride, Daxter Miles and Sagabe Konate came with those players’ experience for multiple years in the program. The worry is that with players now having the option to leave anytime they want, will that hurt Huggins’ ability to build the program. Huggins is a Hall of Fame Coach for a reason, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he found a way to get it done and adjust. However, after losing Bridges, McNeil and Cottrell’s combined production of 76.5 minutes and 24.8 points per game, there is legitimate reason to worry about West Virginia heading into the 2022-2023 season.