In a recent Q&A with some National Sabermetricians (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=1753) I asked the analysts their thoughts on trying to extend Hardy and Jones.
You can review the link for their answers, but my opinion is that extensions for both should be a priority of the Orioles Front Office this Winter.
With Hardy, there are legitimate questions of his ability to stay on the field over the course of a 162 game season. It is also possible that Hardy would like to see how things go in 2011, before deciding if he wants to spend additional time in Baltimore. To me though, if you are the Orioles you know that your system lacks anyone you are going to want starting for you in ’12, and likely ’13. So if you lose Hardy you are again have to be looking at external options, either via Free Agency or via Trade.
In Free Agency, potentially Jose Reyes, Rafael Furcal, and Yuniesky Betancourt would be available. If they were obtainable, each of them would be good options. My issue is that I would not want the O’s having to go into the off-season next Winter, feeling that they must sign one of those three. Hardy is a capable bat, and an outstanding defensive SS. You already have him in an Oriole uniform. Getting him extended through ’13 (figuring Machado spends ’11 in Delmarva, ’12 in Frederick, and ’13 in Bowie) is more attractive to me than having the O’s have to sign a FA, or trade additional resources for another stop-gap type option.
With Jones you have a player that has yet to reach his full-potential, but is still productive as the player he is today. The 25 year-old is under team-control through 2014 already. If you extended him, you would be exchanging an immediate bump in his salary for the first year or two of when he would be a Free Agent. The limitations we have seen from him in-terms of on-base %, free-swinging, and even his defense the last two years might make the O’s want to wait another year before trying to extend him. I think that would be a mistake. The Adam Jones we have seen already would be an expensive commodity as a Free Agent. If he raises his game in 2011, the price for extending him is going to markedly increase. The O’s should take advantage of the fact that he has yet to fully reach his potential, and use that leverage to extend Jones with a team-friendly (but fair) contract.
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