Facts & Opinions On The Orioles – August 4th

In homage – and with the usual apologies –  to former Baltimore Sun / Comcast Sportsnet / Baltimore Ravens Columnist John Eisenberg; here is my version of John’s Fact & Opinion column after the Orioles trades at the 2026 MLB Trading Deadline.

Fact: The Orioles have traded away Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward, Dean Kremer, and Tyler Wells in-exchange for Anthony Eyanson, Kyson Witherspoon, Enddy Azocar, Carlos Narváez, Alex Hoppe, Brock Moore, Harrison Kreiling, Jhomnardo Reyes, and Michael Forret.  They also made smaller deals for Christian Franklin, Codi Heuer, and Rece Hinds.

Opinion: I can make a logical argument for each move individually. I acknowledge that Orioles General Manager Mike Elias added ceiling, depth, and control to the Orioles system. I still don’t like the decision making process when you look at the moves collectively.  Obviously the primary discussion point here is Rutschman.  Elias extracted value from Boston.  And the Red Sox likely paid more now, with Rutschman having 1.2 years left of team control; then they or another team would have paid this Winter for him. My feeling is the O’s would have still been able to trade Rutschman this Winter if need be, and I don’t think that hypothetical return would have been 50 cents on the dollar compared to the deal they did make.

What I said yesterday was, “Don’t think losing Rutshman, Ward, or Kremer in a vacuum, means a lot; but taken together, it’s a tough look even if you can reasonably understand each individual move.
Kremer is a 5th that was struggling his last 4 starts, and Bassitt is a reasonable answer to replace him, and Elias obtained a kid with helium and control. Ward hasn’t hit for the power expected, and is a below average LF.  The O’s can replace him in the lineup with Beavers, Kjerstad, Taveras, etc… and get similar production. Maybe the relievers obtained help. Rutschman – like Wieters – didn’t match the hype, but also like Wieters was a good player. A 3x All-Star. Your rep this year. He had the 3 stints on the IL this year, but they were largely fluky. I thought he had a better offensive approach this year vs. the last 2 years.  When he hasn’t been around, it’s been noticeable with the lineup. I haven’t seen the return, but I expect Elias extracted some value from Boston. And with Rutschman, you could argue now was the time to trade him if you weren’t going to reach an extension.”

After sleeping on it, looking at the returns, and adding the Wells trade; I feel the same.
The most valuable commodity in baseball is team control; but the most valuable thing in baseball is holding a Championship trophy and unfurling a banner.
I was okay with Elias trading off Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez at the 2022 Deadline, because that team was ahead of schedule.
I can’t get on-board the same way here in 2026, because the ’26 O’s are behind schedule.
The AL is not overwhelming this year, and despite being 4 games under .500 entering tonight, the O’s were 15-8 in July.
I believe post-season baseball is largely a roll-of-the-dice. The goal is to get there and take your chances.
FanGraphs is giving the O’s a 12% chance of reaching the post-season, so not great odds, but not nothing either.
Entering play tonight, the O’s are 2.5 games back of the 3rd Wild Card (Cleveland), and 5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card (Boston). Minnesota, Texas, Seattle, all ahead of the O’s, all 1-2 games back of Cleveland.

I generally think the play was improving, and that the O’s had a reasonable chance to get to October.
They still might.
If they do, you could say, “They still reached the post-season, and they fortified the system.” 
If that happens, that would be a very fair comment.
I think if they reach the post-season, my take will be that I would have liked having Rutschman available.

My overarching thought is, I would have rather seen the O’s either keep the roster as is, or add along the fringes to help the existing ML roster, vs. again deciding not to try.
Elias decided the odds weren’t good enough to try now, and the more prudent decision was adding more to the overall arsenal to try again tomorrow.

Part of me respects that.
You should want multiple bites at the apple vs. going all in once.
And while I might have enjoyed it in the moment, I don’t think I would have really supported going all in with major acquisitions of players with expiring team control utilizing the existing prospect pool.
I would have supported continuing with the current group for the remainder of ’26 and giving them a bit of help.
Another reliever capable of contributing in leverage situations. A defensive 4th OF.

Fact: Via MLB Pipeline, Eyanson becomes the Orioles top overall prospect, with Forret, Witherspoon, and Azocar also now in the Orioles Top 10.

Opinion: The system was pretty tapped before the trades and draft last year. Now with the 2026 Draft completed and these trades; the system strength is again pretty strong. Maybe not overwhelming quality at the top, but a good amount of guys that could possibly directly contribute to the ML roster, or give you the organizational depth necessary to make other trades.  If you were going to make the trades, I like the returns.  Elias added some legitimate talent.  Once you moved Rutschman, I certainly get moving Wells at that point. Getting Forret back in the organization was a nice move.

Fact: Carlos Narváez has a .535 OPS in a 171 ab’s this year for Boston.  He also had a .726 OPS in 403 ab’s last year, with 15 homers, and 27 doubles. He’s regarded as a strong defensive Catcher, and he is under team control through the 2031 season.

Opinion: If he can rebound offensively, you’ve got a nice pairing with him and Basallo long-term at Catcher.

Fact: Christian Franklin is starting in LF tonight for the O’s.

Opinion: The 26 year old Franklin had a .735 OPS in 426 plate appearances this year for AAA Rochester. Obtained from the Nationals for Joe Glassey. This year with Rochester he had 35 games in RF, 31 games in LF, and 17 in CF.  Presumably when he does play, he will be a better LF than Ward.  Obviously not a high bar there. Still, I think we would all enjoy seeing improved defense down the stretch. Curious to see how much playing time he gets.

Fact: Holliday, Mayo, Cowser, and Beavers are all in the lineup tonight.

Opinion: When we get to the off-season, and we start thinking about 2027; our optimism for believing the O’s can be more of a factor next year is going to largely be tied to how these guys finish out 2026.  Holliday had a .921 OPS in July. What can he do for encore here in August?  Plenty of playing time available for the other three as well. How do they perform these last two months?

Fact: Elias reported July 31st that Blaze Alexander’s bone is still healing (non-displaced fracture in left-hand). No timetable currently for his return.

Opinion: As I start thinking more about ’27, I envision Alexander penciled into Super Utility duty, with Jordan Westburg getting every opportunity to reclaim 3rd once he shows he’s healthy.

Fact: The O’s have given recent extensions to Basallo, Baz, Bradish, and Cano.  They obviously signed Alonso before this season.

Opinion: I think you can safely assume that if Orioles Owner David Rubenstein had taken ownership earlier, that Elias might have pushed for deals into the free agent seasons with Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Holliday.  There is some talk to be found the the O’s did offer Rutschman extension offers in the last year plus which were rejected. Presumably Henderson will want to reach Free Agency, but after a down for him ’25 with the shoulder injury, and this disappointing ’26 season; the deal he ultimately signs somewhere is not going to be as lucrative as it figured to be after the ’24 season.  I’d still be pushing for a deal with him now, offering him very significant money. Hoping he’d consider it with the way his ’26 has gone. My guess is Henderson would decline such a deal, and bet on himself to rebound in ’27.  If he rebounds in a big way, he probably prices himself out of a possible deal with the O’s.  If he rebounds and the team doesn’t, I think the O’s will have to look to trade him next Summer like they did with Rutschman yesterday. If the team rebounds, you probably ride out ’27.  Then maybe you deal him after the ’27 season (he’s a Free Agent after ’28).  I know some people are not super excited about Holliday at this point, but he’s not 23 until December, and the potential is still there. He’s not a Free Agent until after 2030. If you could get a deal done now that takes you through 2032 or 2033, that would be great.

Westburg is also a Free Agent after 2030. He will miss all of ’26, and was limited to 85 games in ’25. He’s 28 next February.  Given all the time he’s missed, could you tack on a year or two now? Is that a good risk given his age, and the injury history? Does the existing injury history make a deal viable?

Fact: Trevor Rogers was not traded yesterday.

Opinion: I didn’t want to see Rogers moved, but was surprised after Rutschman was dealt, that Rogers didn’t find a new home. Rogers was quoted leading up to the deadline saying he wants to stay in Baltimore. He’s a Free Agent to be.  I’d like to see a deal happen there. If you get a deal done before the off-season, you could go into Winter believing you had four spots (Bradish, Rogers, Baz, Young) in the rotation filled. I don’t see a scenario where the O’s obtain two starters with better upside than Rogers. Getting to the Winter and feeling like you have to fill two spots doesn’t seem ideal.