Finding The Storyline Of The Final Weeks

I’ll be honest. Sometimes it is easy to find an angle to write about this 2020 Orioles team. Over the course of this historic MLB season, the Orioles have provided many intriguing storylines. There was the whole “when will Mountcastle be called up?”. There was the question of whether or not the Orioles would sell at the deadline. There was a period when Anthony Santander looked like a MVP candidate. Now, young pitchers like Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer, and Hunter Harvey are contributing. And, of course, there’s always Hanser Alberto to write about.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

But, right now? What is the storyline? There isn’t one clear cut storyline to focus on as the season draws closer to a conclusion.

Of course, one could go with the angle of the Orioles having a very legitimate shot at making the playoffs. Yes, despite all preseason prognostications that the Orioles would struggle against the East and fail to win 20 games, here they are with a 20-22 record, just two games out of playoff spot. There’s two teams to overleap in order to get into the expanded playoffs, the Houston Astros and the New York Yankees. While there’s nothing that could be directly done with the Astros, the Orioles do get a chance to dent the Yankees chances.

The remainder of the schedule is tough. But, the entire season schedule has been tough for the Orioles, facing the East Division, which could see three AL East teams in the playoffs with another three or four making it in the National League. The fact that the Orioles are still in the picture, have an even run differential through 42 games, and have battled their own share of injuries is remarkable. Even more remarkable, the Orioles do control their playoff destiny.

They begin the final stretch with a four game series at New York, against the Yankees. That’s followed with their final two home series, with three against the Braves and five against the Rays (although one of those games is technically an away game). Then, they conclude with a six game road trip with three at Fenway and three in Buffalo against the Blue Jays. Every team, with the exception of the Red Sox, is a playoff contender. The Yankees have been struggling with injuries and poor performances from key players. The O’s are 3-3 thus far against the Yankees. Yes, the Yankees should win the series, but the Yankees have been in “should win” all year. Yes, the five games against the Rays are tough, as are the three against the Braves, but is there a scenario where the Orioles stay close and then close out the season with those six away games with a chance to get into the tournament? Definitely. If you had said that the Orioles would be playing for a playoff spot with two weeks to go back on Opening Day (which, if you recall was a 13-2 loss to the Red Sox), you would’ve been laughed at. But, here they are.

They’ve surprised on a number of levels. The team ranks 6th in the American League, second in the East, according to defensive runs saved. Their offense ranks 6th in home runs. Despite ranking at the bottom in walk percentage (13th to be precise), the offense’s 22.2 percent strikeout rate is fourth lowest in the league. According to WAR, the Orioles offense ranks ninth in the American League. While most of the pitching categories show the Orioles as one of the worst staffs in the league, they do have the fifth lowest walk rate.

But, is that the storyline? Is it really about the playoffs? Maybe. And, truthfully, why wouldn’t it be about winning? We sometimes get lost in the ideas of rebuilding and fail to focus on the fact that there is a chance to experience the playoffs. Wouldn’t it be valuable for Ryan Mountcastle, Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin, Hunter Harvey, even the injured Anthony Santander to get a glimpse of the playoffs?  And, sure, we could say that the Orioles couldn’t sustain this pace over 162 games. That’s probably correct. But, that’s not what this season is. So, in the context of the 2020, maybe that is the storyline. The Orioles could make the playoffs. They actually can control whether or not they make the playoffs.

So, yes, the one of the storylines is the push for the playoffs. They have 18 games left to make a playoff push. Any team can get hot for that small of a stretch. Why not the Orioles? Even if they don’t make it, playing meaningful games at the end of the season is nothing but valuable to a young roster.

This is where the storyline of Ryan Mountcastle comes into play. Since his long awaited call up, the outfielder has 23 hits in 60 at bats, including three doubles, and four home runs. His current .383/.441/.633 slash line may be unsustainable, as his .441 BABIP, but one thing is for certain. His bat plays at the Major League level, just like it did throughout his Minor League career. He’s shown great patience at the plate (8.8% walk rate) and has even been a tick above average thus far in left field according the defensive metrics.

However, that’s not really the Ryan Mountcastle storyline.

What took them so long to bring him up? Why did the organization wait until game 26 to bring up a player who was clearly Major League ready. Sure, there is the bit about an extra year of control, which is fine in the grand scheme of an organization, but they certainly didn’t have to wait 26 games for that. Those 21 games that Dwight Smith Jr. played could’ve been Mountcastle instead. It might have helped a bit. It may have translated into an extra win or two. That certainly looms large right now as the Orioles chase down the final playoff spot. The organization has done quite a bit right lately, but they failed on the timing of Mountcastle’s promotion. Playing at the alternative site isn’t the same development as playing a true Minor League schedule. And, honestly, what did Mountcastle have left to prove in the Minors anyway? He should’ve been up right after the Orioles secured that extra year of control.

That’s not even the storyline though.

Maybe it’s that the Orioles are still in a pennant race despite the fact that General Manager Mike Elias rightfully sold off his bullpen at the trade deadline. The Orioles actually improved for the long term, especially in the Mychal Givens trade to the Rockies, but haven’t crashed and burned despite losing three important bullpen pieces. Since the deadline, the Orioles are 6-3. Those six wins include three against the Yankees and one against the Blue Jays. While the organization deserves criticism for the handling of Mountcastle, it deserves praise for trading off the right pieces at the right time. It was a delicate balancing act and one that Elias did well.

Maybe the last weeks are about the performances of Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin. Kremer was one of the players acquired in the Manny Machado deal. He certainly made a tremendous first impression, tossing six innings, allowing 1 hit, 1 run, 3 walks, with 7 strikeouts against the Yankees. The 24 year old right hander certainly looked ready, had good mound presence, and used his fastball, curve, and cut fastball arsenal well. It was a great debut. Now, he gets to show if he can do that three more times. If he can, the Orioles not only have a shot at the playoffs, but they have legitimate hope to finally enter a season with a legitimate rotation, not one made of castoffs. Southpaw Keegan Akin has also showed promise in his two starts, tossing 9.2 innings, allowing 6 hits, 2 (un-earned) runs, and striking out 14. His 6 walks leave much to be desired, but, like Kremer, his stuff plays at the Major League level.

Perhaps it’s about some redemption stories like Cedric Mullins. Mullins was an afterthought heading into this season after failing to hit the ball with any type of authority last season. But, injuries led to Mullins getting another chance. Through 30 games played, Mullins is hitting .296/.352/.420 with 2 doubles, 1 triple, 2 home runs, and 5 stolen bases while compiling a +2 DRS in center field. He may not be a full time starter, but he is certainly a capable fourth or fifth outfielder on a contending team. The 25 year old has put himself back on the radar. Or, it could be someone like 27 year old utility man Pat Valaika. It’s easy to forget that he appeared in 110 games in 2017 as a member of the Colorado Rockies and hit .258/.284/.533 with 11 doubles and 13 home runs. Since then, he’s hit just .169/.230/.274 in 108 Major League games. But, this season, out of Coors Field, he’s posted a .269/.309/.471 line with 3 doubles and 6 home runs all while appearing in games at every infield position and in left field. On a side note…damn, he hits the ball hard.

Maybe it’s about the most underrated catching duo in Major League Baseball, Pedro Severino and Chance Sisco. In Severino’s 35 games, he’s batting .322/.400/.513 with 10 extra base hits. In Sisco’s 27 games, he’s batting .236/.389/.458 with 8 extra base hits. According to WAR, the O’s backstop production ranks third in Major League Baseball behind the White Sox and Phillies. While everyone can’t wait for top prospect Adley Rutchmann to get to the Bigs, the 2020 Orioles catching tandem is one of the sport’s best.

And, of course, no Orioles’ piece would be complete without a Hanser Alberto mention. Despite just 5 walks, Alberto keeps finding success at the plate, hitting .311/.333/.422. His 50 hits and 28 runs scored lead the Orioles. While his defense at second has declined (-3 DRS), he continues to be a key player and someone who is just flat out fun to watch play.

So, finding just one angle to write about has been challenging today, but that just may be the point.

During a season when we didn’t even think it was possible to even have one, the 2020 Baltimore Orioles have written so many storylines. They have spent a summer doing something nobody thought possible: competing. Their young talent is starting to filter through and find early success. More importantly, they are gaining Major League experience during a real push at a playoff berth. The questions about young players like Anthony Santander have largely been answered positively. The front office did a stellar job of keeping the long term plan in place. And, many of the players on the 2020 team, many of whom don’t project to be here when the Orioles are “real” competitors, have performed well enough to consider whether or not they could help down the line. It has been a season with so many positive stories.

As we come closer to the end of the season, all of those storylines have converged into this; baseball is fun in Baltimore again. While there will certainly be more difficult times as the organization continues to develop and rebuild, this season has been nothing but pure fun. It’s something every Orioles fan should savor. While that isn’t quality analysis or groundbreaking, having a fun team to watch, write, read, and talk about is exactly what we all need right now. Maybe this club has one more truly surprising moment left in them, the playoffs. Maybe it doesn’t. No matter the outcome, the 2020 Baltimore Orioles have given us a great distraction from the real world when we needed it most.