The 2022 Minor League Baseball midseason break came to end this past weekend, leaving just seven/eight weeks for prospects to make a notable mark on their 2022 campaign.

We’ve seen many of the top prospects in the organization rise even higher, from Grayson Rodriguez cementing himself as the top pitching prospect in all of baseball before an unfortunate injury, to Gunnar Henderson catapulting to number five on MLB Pipeline’s latest Top 100 Prospects update, Jordan Westburg mashing Triple-A pitching and emerging as a Top 100 prospect, DL Hall putting together one of the greatest months of pitching I can think of, Kyle Stowers piling up 43 extra-base hits while lowering his strikeout rate significantly, and 2021 first-round draft pick Colton Cowser getting promoted to Double-A and kicking off his Bowie career in pretty impressive fashion.

I could continue, but I think the point has been made. While we’ve seen some notable players struggle or succumb to injuries, the top prospects in this system are performing at a high level, and doing so in the upper levels of the minor leagues, positioning themselves for big league call-ups in the near future.

As for some of those players who did not have standout first halves, there are a few who are showing signs of a turnaround and I wanted to highlight them here. These are the five prospects who I think are primed to close out the season in a big way, whether it’s recovering from an injury/first-half struggle, or it’s building on under-the-radar first-halves.

Bowie Baysox SS Joey Oritz

With Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg peforming as well as they have been this season, along with the arrival of César Prieto and overall depth of middle infield prospects in the organization, guys like Joey Ortiz and Darell Hernaiz have gone overlooked (recent story on Hernaiz here). The addition of Jackson Holliday is sure to command a good bit of attention as well, once he begins playing in games.

But let’s not forget about Joey Ortiz. The 24-year-old hit just .188 in April, .227 in May, and .204 in June, but he’s been one of the hottest hitters in the system in the month of July. It’s important to note the significant lack of experience for Ortiz when looking at his slow start to the season. The 2019 fourth-round draft pick played in 56 games with then short-season Aberdeen in 2019 before having his 2020 season wiped away. After 89 plate appearances in High-A last season, the Orioles were comfortable enough to promote him to Double-A, where he saw just 67 plate appearances before a torn labrum and surgery ended his season.

Ortiz is now playing in his first full season as a pro and it’s coming at the Double-A level. After taking some time to settle in, Ortiz is showing exactly why he received so much praise coming out of the 2020 Alternate Site and promoted as quickly as he was last season.

In 18 July contests, Ortiz is hitting .373 with a .411 OBP and eight extra-base hits. Eight of those 18 contests have been multi-hit efforts, six of them coming in his last eight games.

The power is there, the defense has been major league ready for a long time now as he’s arguably the best defender in the organization, and now the steady bat is coming along. When you watch Bowie and their roster that’s loaded with top prospects like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, and others, Ortiz and his play stand out and demands your attention. That’s not easy to do among this group. If his last month of play is a sign of things to come, the final two months of the season should be quite the show.

Aberdeen IronBirds OF Heston Kjerstad

One of the best storylines of the 2022 season is the arrival of Heston Kjerstad. Having last played in 2020 as part of a COVID-shortened college campaign at Arkansas, Kjerstad has overcome a battle with myocharditis and then a hamstring injury that delayed his 2022 debut, but returned to the batter’s box with Delmarva and acted like he never left.

Playing in 22 games with the Shorebirds, Kjerstad hit .463 with a .551 on-base percentage, nine doubles, two home runs, and a 17/13 K/BB across 80 at-bats. On July 13th, the 2020 first-round pick was promoted to Aberdeen, giving him an opportunity to earn another promotion and end the season in Bowie, as long as he checks all of his developmental goals the organization has for him. We’re all well aware at this point that the Orioles aren’t going to promote someone unless each and every one of those boxes has been checked.

Despite the extended absence, Kjerstad showed impressive plate discipline in Delmarva and a real knack for collecting high-velo line drives, posting one of the higher line drive rates in the organization. On the flip side, he’s posted one of the highest groundball rates and lowest flyball rates which is notable but not a huge deal considering his time in Delmarva was all about getting his timing back, facing live competition, getting used to playing nine innings in the field, and settling any nerves/shaking off the rust that’s been building over the last two years.

Now in Aberdeen, he’s going to face more advanced pitching, but with his legs under him and what is sure to be a high degree of confidence after putting up video game numbers against Low-A pitching, I wouldn’t be surprised if we start seeing more fly balls in Aberdeen and as a result, more home runs. He’s only played in eight games as of this writing so we’re looking at an extremely small sample size here, but those numbers are already beginning to trend in the right direction. Aberdeen is notorious for zapping power out of guys so raw home run numbers aren’t the best numbers to look at for guys in this lineup, which will be important to note as Kjerstad continues his tenure there. Regardless, Kjerstad has positioned himself for a big run in Aberdeen and possible promotion to Bowie by the end of the season, putting him right in line for a late-2023/early-2024 big league debut. Remarkable considering everything he’s been through.

Norfolk Tides RHP Chris Vallimont

When the Orioles claimed Chris Vallimont off waivers from Minnesota back in late May, the move went largely unnoticed, outside of a few “why would you even bring this guy in” comments when looking at his 2022 season numbers in the Twins organization. I won’t lie, I was guilty of that. Shame on me. Two months later, Chris Vallimont is in Triple-A and ranked as the 22nd best prospect in the organization per Baseball America and 32nd per FanGraphs. The three of us at On The Verge will be releasing our mid-season Top 50 update shortly, where Vallimont will also likely rank somewhere between 25-35.

I’m including Vallimont on this list because as long as he can adjust to Triple-A, he has a real opportunity to be a notable contributor in the big leagues by the end of the season. He’s already on the 40-man roster, so step one is complete.

Vallimont started the season in Double-A with the Twins organization, pitching to a 9.95 ERA, 2.68 WHIP, .329 average against, and more walks than strikeouts. I’m no scout, but my thoroughly researched analysis says…that’s not good. His immediate turnaround after joining the Orioles organization is almost unbelievable. In three Bowie starts, Valllimont allowed just one earned run across 13 innings, while striking out 18 and walking four. His overall numbers in Triple-A haven’t been as great, but he responded from a 4 IP/6 R AAA debut with five no-hit innings as part of a one-hit shutout with DL Hall. Overall, he’s continuing to strikeout guys at an impressive clip and keep the walk numbers low. Honing in on his pitch mix and command should allow the rest of his numbers to fall in line as he continues to adjust to not only Triple-A quality hitters, but a new baseball as well.

Standing at 6’5” and armed with a four-pitch mix, including a fastball that he can run up to 96 mph with notable carry and break, Vallimont has a real opportunity to be quite the success story for this organization. Going from an ERA near 10 in Double-A to a big leaguer with the Orioles thanks to a few tweaks is pretty fun to think about. If Jordan Lyles happens to be traded or the Orioles find that they will need some length from guys as the season starts to wind down, Vallimont could be one of the better options. However, it’s more likely that he finds his way into Baltimore’s bullpen. If multiple moves are made at the trade deadline, Vallimont can fill that void as well, relying more on his high-velo, quality fastball and sweeping slider.

Aberdeen IronBirds OF John Rhodes

At the conclusion of the 2021 season, I tagged John Rhodes as the big sleeper of the 2021 draft class. Despite struggling in his final season at Kentucky, the Orioles drafted Rhodes in the third round and gave him around $550,000 above slot value to get him into the organization instead of letting him slip away back to Kentucky to bet on himself and try to improve his stock. Looking at the early results on Rhodes, the Orioles have clearly began to unlock some of his potential, and I’m sticking with my pick as Rhodes being the big sleeper.

There were notes last season from some national outlets of Rhodes having a high swing-and-miss rate on pitches in the strikezone and concerns about how his hit tool would develop. Entering this week, only César Prieto has a lower swinging-strike rate in the organization and before a wrist injury sidelined Rhodes for a few weeks, he was .339 with a 1.020 OPS to begin his first full-season as a pro with Aberdeen. He’s clearly feeling good and has found his timing again after his injury, collecting eight hits over his last six games.

I only have my amateur eye test skills to to go off since I don’t have access to all of the good minor league data (yet), but watching Rhodes on a nightly basis, it looks familiar to what we saw with a few of his former teammates who were recently promoted to Bowie in Cowser, Norby, and Mayo. The baseball card stats in Aberdeen aren’t jumping off the page, but the real metrics the organization uses to evaluate players may be telling quite the different story. If that’s the case (which I have a strong suspicion it is), once some dominos in the majors/upper levels of the minors fall and open up some space, expect a promotion to Bowie for Rhodes and a nice offensive boost in more friendly confines.

Delmarva IF Frederick Bencosme

Every chance I get to talk about Frederick Bencosme, I’m going to take advantage of it. Bencosme hasn’t struggled or missed time due to an injury, but I’m envisioning a big second half for Bencosme in terms of firmly planting himself on the national radar.

Bencosme, who doesn’t turn 20 until Christmas, opened a few eyes with his performance in the Dominican Summer League last year, hitting .310 with 12 extra-base hits and an 18/10 K/BB ratio across 44 games. He came Stateside to begin 2022 and the Orioles decided that two games in the Florida Complex League was enough to be moved up to Delmarva. He hasn’t disappointed since.

In 36 games as a Shorebird, Bencosme is hitting .366 with a .426 OBP and almost as many walks (13) as strikeouts (14). The bat-to-ball skills are quite impressive, without a doubt some of the best in the lower levels of the organization, if not the best. As the Shorebirds make the turn for the final stretch of the season, it will be interesting to see if Bencosme starts to show some more power, even if it’s gap-to-gap power and not over-the-fence power. He has just six extra-base hits up to this point (.060 ISO) but has flashed some more game power and has plenty of room to continue to develop physically, while maintaining his game-changing athleticism.

Bencosme was just recently noted in a Baseball America Hotsheet column, finally getting some national love after an impressive debut. It’s not crazy to think that when the 2023 preseason prospect lists start rolling out, you see a Jean Pinto-esque rise for Bencosme.

Nick Stevens
Nick Stevens

Orioles Analyst

A former high school teacher and coach in the mountains of Virginia, Nick Stevens has been writing about the Baltimore Orioles and their minor league system for five years. When he isn’t at a minor league stadium, he’s enjoying a Wizards game or supporting his alma mater, James Madison University. Co-Host of The Verge.

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