On July 18, 2018, the Baltimore Orioles officially entered a new era when they traded Manny Machado to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a bundle of prospects.
For the Orioles, that day officially signaled the start of the rebuild. However, for some fans, that day also officially signaled that it was time to stop paying attention to a team that wasn’t going to produce a winning record anytime soon.
Now, it seems like some of those fans have been given a very good reason to start paying attention again: the #1 prospect is here. Adley Rutschman, Baltimore’s reward for its horrendous 47-115 record in 2018, made his long-awaited debut on Saturday night.
In an effort to get people caught up on what’s happened since July 2018, I’m going to do a three-part series looking at Rutschman himself, the current roster and the future of the rebuild by answering some questions you might have.
Let’s start with part one by looking at Rutschman’s present ability, his ceiling and the chances he remains an Oriole for a long time.
How good is Adley right now?
I think the reasonable expectation for Rutschman’s first season is for him to be just a league-average hitter and a defensively strong catcher who gets better at both hitting and calling games as the year progresses.
Being a rookie catcher provides a unique challenge compared to being a rookie at shortstop or center field. Being a catcher means he will need to get to know his own pitchers to call their games, on top of making adjustments to his hitting.
Figuring out what works best for five starters and countless relievers will be a gradual process and we saw proof of that during Saturday’s debut with Kyle Bradish. Rutschman had caught Bradish several times last year with the AAA Norfolk Tides, but their chemistry didn’t provide that much help. Bradish had a rough start as he allowed five earned runs and a pair of homers.
As for his strength on defense, we saw a demonstration of that on Tuesday night against the New York Yankees when he made a game-saving tag at home in extra innings.
There’s a learning curve between AAA and MLB for hitting, but fielding is the same no matter what level you play at, so it’s fair to say that Rutschman is already the finished product defensively.
A closer look at the early returns for his hitting reveals something pretty encouraging: he’s battling at the plate. He’s currently averaging 4.89 pitches per plate appearance, which leads everyone currently on the roster. He might need a little while for his bat to warm up but if he’s a pesky hitter during every at-bat, then he’ll be contributing to the lineup in one way or another.
A good measuring stick for Rutschman will be three other players who were among the preseason favorites for AL Rookie of the Year and made their Opening Day rosters: Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez, Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. and Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson.
Looking at the table, you can see issues with each of their hitting. Rodriguez leads the trio in OPS, but is doing it with a strikeout rate in the eighth percentile according to Baseball Savant. Meanwhile, Witt’s walk rate and OBP won’t make him the star of a “Moneyball” sequel and Torkelson’s batting average is below the Mendoza line.
The trio began the season as consensus top five prospects along with Rutschman and none of them have really hit the ground running through the season’s first two months. This doesn’t mean it’s a guarantee that Rutschman will struggle offensively, but it does provide valuable context that sometimes your top prospects will need a few months to get going at the plate.
Ultimately, there are very few outcomes where 2022 can be a failure for Rutschman besides another injury, so let’s just enjoy the start of something big.
Okay, so how good can Adley be at his peak?
A reasonable ceiling Rutschman can reach is being a top five catcher for several seasons.
The nature of catcher as a position means that teams will almost always sacrifice offense for defense, so if Rutschman can be a solidly above-average hitter while providing the same defense as a glove-first catcher with a career .700 OPS, he’ll very quickly become one of the most valuable guys at his position.
Let’s provide some context.
From 2016 to 2021, there were 20 catchers who had at least 1500 PAs. Among those 20, only five of them produced an OPS above .795: Yasmani Grandal, Willson Contreras, Gary Sanchez, JT Realmuto and Buster Posey. For further context, Grandal’s .828 OPS as a catcher from 2016 to 2021 ranked 49th among all hitters with 1500 PAs.
A consistent .800 OPS won’t have anyone mistaking Rutschman with Joe Mauer’s 2009 MVP season, but it’d still make him one of the best hitters at his position. If he can provide that production on top of being strong defensively, then you’ve absolutely got yourself someone who was worth the #1 pick and a franchise cornerstone.
We let Manny leave, so is the same thing going to happen to Adley?
Given that the last homegrown Orioles superstar didn’t get extended, I’m sure there’s skepticism that the same thing will happen with Rutschman.
Ultimately, there’s nothing that really gives us a clear indication of what will happen with Rutschman’s situation, but I should also highlight the differences between Manny Machado’s situation and Rutschman’s. Machado is a third baseman, while Rutschman is a catcher. Meanwhile, Machado left during the Dan Duquette era and Rutschman’s future will be decided by Mike Elias. Also, Machado debuted as a 20-year-old and Rutschman is 24 with a birthday in February.
Rutschman’s age and position compared to Machado means he’d likely get a worse contract in free agency, especially due to the wear-and-tear of playing catcher compared to being a third baseman. This would presumably make him more likely to accept an extension, but this is purely speculation.
We can also look at how the Houston Astros handled some of their homegrown stars when Elias was in the front office. They gave Jose Altuve a seven-year deal worth $163.5 million in 2018 and extended Alex Bregman for five years and $100 million before the 2019 season. However, Carlos Correa and George Springer both ended up leaving as free agents, which means that the Astros ended up keeping half of their homegrown core from their 2017 World Series team.
This aspect of Rutschman feels like much more of a guessing game than his current ability or his ceiling. We haven’t seen Elias spend money in a meaningful fashion yet, but that doesn’t mean he never will.
It’s valid to wonder about Rutschman’s future, but right now we don’t have any clear indication of how this Orioles front office will value someone like him. Sometimes you just have to wait and see.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).